May 18 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Monday trade. Futures signaling flat starts in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. S&P 500 futures weakening following Moody's US credit rating downgrade. Australian yield curve bear steepening, following Treasury losses on Friday. Dollar seeing small decline against majors steady, steady elsewhere. Gold rebounding after capping worst week since mid-2021. Crude flat. Bitcoin closing in on record high.
Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields this year. However, Moody's decision was not altogether surprising with Fitch and S&P having already downgraded their US credit rating. Rates analysts mixed on implications with some eyeing another bear steepening move while others saw limited repercussions.
Trade headlines mixed with Treasury Secretary Bessent warning reciprocal tariffs will be restored on countries that do not negotiate in good faith before 90-day pause expires. Nothing incremental on China with Bessent noting only that mechanism is in place for negotiations to continue. Better news on US-EU talks with FT sources noting two sides overcame deadlock and have resumed serious negotiations. More press discussions about China import rush fueling container demand and risking fresh bottlenecks.
Monday's economic calendar headlined by China activity data for April. Forecast to show industrial production growth slowed as tariffs went into effect, which weighed on manufacturing activity. Retail sales growth seen holding March's pace while fixed asset investment growth forecast to have nudged higher. Property data will also get attention with new home price declines having narrowed in recent months while private figures showed new home sales contracted at a smaller pace in April.
Pre-open Company News:
540902.IN -- CORRECTION: Amber Enterprises India reports Q4 EPS INR34.12 vs FactSet INR35.79 [7 est, INR23.50-44.30]
3738.HK -- Vobile Group conditionally agrees to issue HK$98.8M in zero coupon convertible bonds to SPDB International Investment Management
541770.IN -- CreditAccess Grameen upgraded to neutral from reduce at Nomura
HSBC upgrades ME8U.SP; downgrades M44U.SP
2097.HK -- MIXUE Group initiated outperform at Daiwa
6702.JP -- Fujitsu downgraded to outperform from buy at Daiwa
CLSA upgrades M44U.SP, ME8U.SP
7780.JP -- Menicon downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA
C6L.SP -- Singapore Airlines downgraded to reduce from neutral at Phillip Capital
AOT.TB -- Airports of Thailand Public Co. upgraded to buy from hold at IV Global Securities
CICC initiates S.F. Holding with outperform rating
603345.CH -- Anjoy Foods Group upgraded to add from hold at CGS International
000100.KS -- Yuhan Corp initiated add at CGS International
TLI.TB -- Thai Life Insurance Public upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
10:00 CST: Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; consensus +5.9%
10:00 CST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y; consensus +5.7%
10:00 CST: Fixed Asset Investment NSA YTD
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
Alibaba Pictures Group (1060.HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK), Qifu Technology (3660.HK), Trip.com Group (9961.HK)
Australia:
Earnings:
Technology One (TNE.AU)
New Zealand:
Economic:
10:45 NZST: PPI Input Price NSA Q/Q; consensus
Earnings:
Serko (SKO.NZ), Tower (TWR.NZ)
India:
Earnings:
Zydus Wellness (531335.IN), Eris Lifesciences (540596.IN), Karur Vysya Bank (590003.IN), PI Industries (523642.IN), Petronet LNG (532522.IN), Redington (532805.IN), DLF Ltd (532868.IN), Power Grid Corp. of India (532898.IN), IRB Infrastructure Developers (532947.IN), Minda Corp. (538962.IN), Gujarat Gas (539336.IN), Quess Corp. (539978.IN), The New India Assurance (540769.IN), DOMS Industries (544045.IN), ACME Solar Holdings (544283.IN)
Thailand:
Economic:
09:30 SAST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.1%
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 25): +$58.70 or +1.84% to $3245.90
WTI Crude (Jun 25): +$0.07 or +0.11% to $62.56
$-¥: (0.28) or (0.19%) to 145.3610
$-KRW: (0.64) or (0.05%) to 1398.1200
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.14% to 0.6412
$-INR: (0.02) or (0.02%) to 85.5830
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2085
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