May 19 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to higher well off worst levels. China-exposed biggest laggards; food/beverages, telecom and airlines outperform. Comes after the fifth consecutive week of gains with Stoxx 600 reaching the highest level since 26-Mar. US equities lower in Monday midday trading, though off worst levels. Comes after US equities rallied sharply last week with the S&P 500 up over 5%, leaving it up 19.5% from the April reciprocal tariff announcement lows and up more than 1% on a YTD basis.
Risk appetite softer into Monday trade, chalked up to Moody's downgrade of US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts extended. Plays into deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium highest since 2014. Also, China April data mixed with industrial production growth slowing less than expected, Retail sales growth slowing by more than forecast, Fixed asset investment growth missing expectations with property investment declines quickening. On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Bessent warned reciprocal tariffs will be restored on countries that do not negotiate in good faith before 90-day pause expires.
European politics in focus: the UK and EU reached a post-Brexit agreement after a "breakthrough" in talks resolving remaining "stumbling blocks," primarily fishing rights, late on Sunday, with a formal signing expected today. However, the Tories and Reform UK have threatened to overturn the agreement if they gain power. In Romania, pro-EU centrist candidate won the presidential election. In Poland, the liberal candidate received 31% of the vote and will face the pro-Trump candidate, who received 29% of the vote, in a decisive second round on 1-Jun. Portugal saw the incumbent center-right government receive the most votes, although a right-wing populist party made significant gains. Additionally, President Trump is scheduled to speak with President Putin to attempt to revive stalled peace negotiations regarding Ukraine
In macro developments, EU Commission cut GDP and inflation forecasts while increasing deficit and debt forecasts. Eurozone final CPI confirmed at 2.2%. EU approved €150B loans-for-arms fund. Elsewhere, ECB's Wunsch said rates may need to decline below 2% due to negative effects on inflation and growth from the trade war.
On the reporting front, Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID) released its FY25 earnings and announced a €750M share buyback, while Diageo (DGE.LN) issued its Q3 numbers. In France, Getlink (GET.FP) announced a two-week suspension of its ElecLink activity, anticipating a commercial impact of ~€20M and leading to a ~(3%) drop in its share price
In M&A news, Prosus (PRX.NA) launched the already expected recommended €20.30/share all-cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) and BT Group (BT.A.LN) is in advanced talks to sell its 50% of TNT Sports to Warner Bros Discovery
IPO news includes Ratos (RATO.B.SS) considering an IPO of its Nordic construction unit Sentia, and Cobalt Holdings (+COBALT.LN) confirming its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, with Glencore (GLEN.LN) expected to hold a ~10% stake post-IPO.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 19-May to 23-May attached) Cie d'Entreprises CFE (CFEB.BB), Wienerberger (WIE.AV), Salmar (SALM.NO), BW LPG (BWLPG.NO), Vodafone Group (VOD.LN), Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW) and VINCI (DG.FP) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Apr PPI, Eurozone May flash consumer confidence, Mar construction output, Portugal Apr PPI, Denmark Q1 preliminary GDP
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +0.91%, Travel & Leisure +0.92%, Utilities +0.58%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.54%, Health Care +0.42%, Food & Beverage +0.40%,
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (0.72%), Oil & Gas (0.67%), Technology (0.43%), Basic Resources (0.43%), Retail (0.20%), Construct & Mtls (0.14%), Banks (0.05%), Media +0.02%, Chemicals +0.04%, Insurance +0.08%, Real Estate +0.08%, Financial Svcs +0.05%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.03%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Trump to speak to Putin and Zelenskyy about Ukraine ceasefire - The Guardian
Netanyahu Says Israel to Take Over All Gaza, Start Aid Flows - Bloomberg
Central Banks
ECB Must Be Cautious on Further Interest-Rate Cuts, Muller Says - Bloomberg
EU
UK
UK-EU deal a 'win-win', Starmer says, as Badenoch brands it a 'sell-out' - BBC
Starmer's £9bn Brussels boost won't spare Britain from more tax rises - The Telegraph
FTSE 100, UK Bonds Caught in US-Led Selloff - Bloomberg
France
Germany
Klingbeil presents budget - and cuts investments - Handelsblatt
Poland
Poland set for knife-edge presidential runoff as far right surges - Reuters
Portugal
Portugal's far-right Chega surges as ruling party misses majority - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+15.9% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK1.02, +0.14) -- master service agreement with a US-based pharmaceutical and biotechnology company
+4.0% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings €23.29, +0.89) -- FY earnings; announces €750M buyback
+3.2% SBS.GR (Stratec €25.95, +0.80) -- FY earnings
+2.9% BNP.FP (BNP Paribas €76.91, +2.17) -- launches €1.084B share buyback programme
+2.9% GEN.LN (Genuit Group £4.13, +0.12) -- 4M trading update
+2.0% AB.FP (AB Science €1.49, +0.03) -- Chinese patent protecting masitinib in the treatment of Covid-19 until 2041
Trading Lower:
-39.9% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.26, -0.17) -- Megrez-1 results
-13.6% IMM.LN (ImmuPharma £0.03, -0.00) -- FY earnings
-7.7% KNOS.LN (Kainos Group £7.51, -0.63) -- FY earnings
-6.4% TOKMAN.FH (Tokmanni Group €10.91, -0.74) -- Inderes downgrade; DNB Carnegie downgrade
-5.9% EVS.BB (EVS Broadcast Equipment €36.40, -2.30) -- Degroof downgrade
-3.9% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK17.10, -0.70) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-3.8% SAVE.LN (Savannah Energy £0.06, -0.00) -- Q1 trading update
-2.8% NONG.NO (SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge NOK145.54, -4.24) -- Arctic Securities downgrade
-2.2% ANA.SM (Acciona €132.00, -3.00) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
-2.1% ENX.FP (Euronext €144.60, -3.10) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgrade
-2.0% HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd €164.50, -3.40) -- Container ship owners swamped with bookings as US-China trade detente revives demand -- Reuters
-2.0% GET.FP (Getlink €17.11, -0.34) -- ElecLink activity suspension
-1.8% AKRBP.NO (Aker BP NOK238.40, -4.40) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Cie d'Entreprises CFE (CFEB.BB)
DACHs: Wienerberger (WIE.AV), NEXUS (NXU.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Jadestone Energy (8KW.GR)
Nordics: Salmar (SALM.NO), BW LPG (BWLPG.NO), Icelandic Salmon (ISLAX.NO), Petronor E&P (PNOR.NO),
Lagercrantz Group (LAGR.B.SS), Maha Energy (MAHA.A.SS), Cinclus Pharma Holding (CINPHA.SS), H+H International (HH.DC), Nanoform Finland (NANOFH.FH)
Southern Europe: Public Power Corp. (PPC.GA)
UK: Vodafone Group (VOD.LN), Diploma (DPLM.LN), LondonMetric Property (LMP.LN), Cranswick (CWK.LN), SSP Group (SSPG.LN), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN), Calnex Solutions (CLX.LN), Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG.LN)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), SFC Energy (F3C.GR)
France: Poxel (POXEL.FP)
UK: Smiths Group (SMIN.LN), Greggs (GRG.LN), Forterra (FORT.LN)
Traffic: VINCI (DG.FP)
CMD/events: Sandvik (SAND.SS), VAT Group (VATN.SW), Konecranes (KCR.FH), Babcock International Group (BAB.LN), Diageo (DGE.LN) Guinness investor/analyst day, Ilika (IKA.LN), Spire Healthcare Group (SPI.LN), Grainger (GRI.LN), Vattenfall (+VATTENF.SS), Allfunds Group (ALLFG.NA) Citi Meet the C-Suite, SAP (SAP.GR) Sapphire, ATEME (ATEME.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Austria Apr CPI +3.1% y/y vs preliminary +3.1%
Spain Mar trade balance (€5.48B) vs consensus (€2.4B) and prior (€3.42B)
Eurozone Apr CPI +2.2% y/y vs preliminary +2.2%
Apr core CPI +2.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 25): +$0.11 or +0.18% to $62.60
€-$ +0.0072 or +0.64% to 1.1255
£-$ +0.0086 or +0.65% to 1.3367
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8418
S&P 500 (0.26%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.44%
DAX: +20.22%
CAC: +6.81%
MIB: +17.49%
Stoxx 600: +8.34%
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