May 19 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed. Asian equities broadly flat to lower Monday amid mixed China activity data.
Last week, European markets gained for the fifth consecutive week with Stoxx 600 closing up 2% for the week and posting the highest level since 26-March as equity markets recovered from the tariff-induced sell-off. Dax also posted a fresh record high. Positive sentiment was driven by an early-week deal between Washington and Beijing to lower tariffs on each other more than analysts expected.
This week sees a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, EU Commission's latest economic forecast, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK May preliminary manufacturing/services PMIs as well as earnings/updates from the likes of BT Group (BT.A.LN), Generali (G.IM), and Vodafone Group (VOD.LN).
Among notable companies reporting today are Diageo (DGE.LN) and Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID), with the latter already on the tape posting mixed results and warning it expects FY26 traffic to grow by just 3% due to constrained / delayed Boeing deliveries.
UK-EU Summit takes place today. UK Prime Minister Starmer set to convene with EU leaders including von der Leyen at a summit in London later, aiming to establish a significant reset in post-Brexit relations. Negotiations between the UK and the EU continued late into the night on Sunday evening, with the issues being discussed thought to involve defence, trade, fishing rights, and a possible youth mobility scheme. (BBC)
Macro data releases out today include Spain Mar trade balance, Eurozone Apr final CPI, Austria Apr final CPI. Already on the tape is UK May house price index - Rightmove; asking prices for UK homes have smallest spring rise since 2016.
In Portugal, the incumbent, centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has won the country's snap general election (third in as many years) but has once again fallen well short of a majority. Meanwhile, Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after his party finished in second, and lost so many seats it ended up neck-and-neck with the far-right Chega party, which took a record 22% of the vote. (BBC , Guardian )
In central banks today, Estonia central bank's Müller press conf at 11:30CET as IMF presents the conclusions of its visit to Estonia (livestream). There's the first of pre-releases at 10:00CET in connection with ECB's Financial Stability Review. BOE's Oakes panellist at 15:50BST at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conf (Sun-Wed) (livestream). EC Commissioner Dombrovskis press conf at 11:00CET on the Spring economic forecast. France's President Macron hosts eighth edition of "Choose France" summit (Sud Ouest ). Norway's minister of defense Sandvik visits Lithuania (through Tue) and minister of finance Stoltenberg gives lectures at the Bergen Chamber of Commerce and at the Norwegian School of Economics. Politico hosts event at 13:30CET title Europe's quest for competitiveness. FT hosts event Business of Luxury (through Tue), speakers/panellists include CEOs from Puig (PUIG.SM), Bank & Olufsen (BO.DC). AIM Summit (through Tue)
Moody's downgraded US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 late Friday, citing growth in government debt and interest payments over more than a decade
Politics/Macro/World News
EU-UK relations
Britain and the EU Haunted by Old Divisions on the Road to a New Deal -- Bloomberg
Starmer's post-Brexit deal under threat from EU fishing demands -- London Times
ECB
Portugal
Center-right wins Portugal's election - but not a majority -- POLITICO
UK house prices
Asking prices for UK homes have smallest spring rise since 2016, Rightmove says -- Reuters
US
Trump pushes US Federal Reserve for rate cuts, criticizes Powell -- Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- reports FY EPS €1.45 vs consensus €1.46, Revenue €13.95B vs consensus €13.89B; expects FY26 traffic to grow by just 3% to 206M passengers due to constrained / delayed Boeing deliveries
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports Q1 operational EBIT DKK505M vs FactSet DKK473.3M [11 est, DKK407-546.8M]
EVS.BB (EVS Broadcast Equipment) -- provides Q1 2025 business update
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Sunrise Communications (SUNN.SW), Stratec (SBS.GR)
France: Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP)
Ireland: Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID)
Nordics: Rockwool (ROCK.B.DC), Fynske Bank (FYNBK.DC), Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO)
Southern Europe: EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM)
UK: Big Yellow Group (BYG.LN), Kainos Group (KNOS.LN), Cerillion (CER.LN), Creo Medical Group (CREO.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Jensen-Group (JEN.BB)
UK: Diageo (DGE.LN)
M&A
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- in advanced talks to sell its 50% of TNT Sports to Warner Bros Discovery - Reuters
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- issues 58.3M new shares in consideration for the contribution by Nederland B.V. of 581.1M shares of Atacadão
LICYQ (Li-Cycle Holdings) -- Glencore Canada enters stalking horse bid for Li-Cycle Holdings CCAA proceeding
PEUG.FP (Peugeot Invest) -- sells part of its private equity funds' interests for €227M; impact of the transaction on NAV will be non-material
LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group) -- Legal & General acquires 75% stake in real estate investor Proprium Capital Partners; terms undisclosed - FT, citing statement
AKAST.NO (Akastor) -- subsidiary DDW Offshore AS cancels sale of Skandi Peregrino
Healthcare
ACAD (Acadia Pharmaceuticals) -- Street Takeaways - Analysts comment on Acadia Pharmaceuticals Court ruling
CYTK (Cytokinetics) -- reports two new analyses from SEQUOIA-HCM Phase 3 clinical trial of aficamten presented at the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure 2025 Congress
NVAX (Novavax, Inc.) -- FDA approves BLA for Novavax's Nuvaxovid
SVRA (Savara) -- reports new data presented from the Phase 3 IMPALA-2 clinical trial of molgramostim at the ATS International Conference 2025
Other
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- shareholders elect Till Spillmann as new independent Chairman
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- reportedly in discussions to compensate clients who incurred losses from FX derivatives - Reuters, citing sources
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- launches €1.084B share buyback programme planned for 2025
AM.FP (Dassault Aviation) -- announces share buyback program following AGM approval
BA reportedly close to agreed with DOJ to drop prosecution and Verizon drops DE&I program for FCC acquisition approval in ESG intraday news (16-May)
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $103.6M, +7.4% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
AO.LN (AO World) -- to buy from hold at Peel Hunt
Downgrades
ANA.SM (Acciona) -- to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
TOKMAN.FH (Tokmanni Group) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
ITH.LN (Ithaca Energy) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
JSE.LN (Jadestone Energy Plc) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
AKRBP.NO (Aker BP) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
MB.IM (Mediobanca) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (0.74%) to 37474.79
Hang Seng (0.29%) to 23278.22
Shanghai Composite +0.02% to 3368.05
S&P futures (58.8) vs prior close of 5975.5
€-$ +0.0003 or +0.03% to 1.1186
$-¥ (0.49) or (0.33%) to 145.16
€-¥ (0.29) or (0.18%) to 162.35
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