May 21 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly mixed. Germany outperforms. Telco and tech the best performers whilst retail, autos and travel/leisure biggest laggards. Follows positive performance Monday and Tuesday with Dax at fresh all-time highs. Market sentiment remain mixed.
Focus remain on trade with the European Union preparing a revised proposal aimed at reviving stalled negotiations with the Trump administration, Bloomberg reports. Sources said the new paper addresses US interests by proposing tariff reductions on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial goods, and cooperation in areas like labor rights, environmental standards, digital trade and economic security.
In macro data, UK inflation surged unexpectedly to 3.5% in Apr, marking highest level in over a year and exceeding both BoE forecasts (3.4%) and economist expectations (3.3%). This sharp increase from Mar's 2.6% driven by barrage of price hikes across essential services, notably a 6.4% rise in energy price cap, alongside increases in water bills, train fares, and local taxes. Services inflation accelerated significantly to 5.4% from 4.7%, also exceeding central bank projections. Inflation spike coincided with major policy changes, including a £26B increase in employer payroll taxes and ~7% rise in minimum wage. While BoE views this as a temporary phenomenon that will peak at 3.7% in Sept, it presents a fresh economic challenge for PM Starmer's government, particularly with households experiencing renewed cost-of-living pressures amid concerns about potential impacts from Trump's tariffs. Data also justifies Chief Economist Pill's comments on Tuesday that rate cuts were progressing too quickly. Traders pared BoE easing bets on the data, with just 25bps of easing seen by Dec-2025.
Light on the corporate front. Marks & Spencer (MKS.LN) FY results beat estimates but cyberattack cost company over £60M and may create 10-15% risk to FY26 earnings consensus. Out of DACHs, Ypsomed Holding (YPSN.SW) FY earnings missed, SoftwareONE Holding (SWON.SW) Q1 revenue dropped, adjusted EBITDA rose, whilst Idorsia (IDIA.SW) upgraded its guidance for 2025 following the successful commercial ramp-up of QUVIVIQ. Also, Julius Baer (BAER.SW) reported mixed 4M IMS with AuM but with a focus on an unexpected CHF 130M loan loss charge. Of note, Infineon (IFX.GR) to work with Nvidia on power delivery chips. Elsewhere, passenger traffic at Vinci (DG.FP) Airports showed marked acceleration in April.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK May preliminary manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany May IFO survey, France May business climate/survey and UK May industrial trends orders - CBI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +0.89%, Technology +0.65%, Food & Beverage +0.33%, Health Care +0.27%, Insurance +0.25%, Utilities +0.06%
Underperformers:
Retail (0.74%), Autos & Parts (0.72%), Travel & Leisure (0.72%), Oil & Gas (0.63%), Construct & Mtls (0.62%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.58%), Real Estate (0.49%), Financial Svcs (0.41%), Chemicals (0.36%), Media (0.20%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.13%), Basic Resources (0.15%), Banks (0.08%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
UK:
Germany:
Italy:
Meloni looks to Moody's to finally end Italy's near junk status -- Bloomberg
Meloni Secures Senate Backing for Albania Migration Deal -- European Conservatives
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+44.3% ACTI.SS (Active Biotech SEK0.16, +0.05) -- patent for tasquinimod in myelofibrosis granted in Europe
+15.3% SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling NOK6.40, +0.85) -- Undisclosed financial investor engages ABG Sundal Collier to explore potential block purchase of up to ~12.8M shares in Shelf Drilling representing ~5% of the outstanding shares
+11.0% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK203.20, +20.40) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK11.53 vs FactSet SEK10.42 [1 est]
+9.2% MRX.GR (Mister Spex €1.54, +0.13) -- CEO acquires 70,000 shares
+8.5% AVTX.NA (Avantium €13.60, +1.02) -- capacity reservation agreement with BIOVOX for PEF in pharmaceutical applications
+6.7% EPRO.B.SS (Electrolux Professional SEK67.10, +4.20) -- transferred buy at Handelsbanken; prior rating was hold
+5.5% PHM.SM (Pharma Mar €88.75, +4.65) -- submits EU MAA for lurbinectedin in combination with atezolizumab in first-line maintenance therapy for ES-SCLC
+5.5% YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding CHF371.50, +19.50) -- reports FY net income CHF87.5M vs FactSet CHF105.1M [3 est, CHF92.0-124M]; initiates sale of Diabetes Care business
+5.3% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €4.04, +0.20) -- to receive €26.5M milestone payment following approval of pricing and reimbursement of Ipsen's Iqirvo in Italy
+5.2% AVON.LN (Avon Technologies £16.92, +0.82) -- reports H1 EPS $0.39 vs FactSet $0.30 [1 est]
+5.1% LOGI.A.SS (Logistea SEK14.40, +0.70) -- to acquire logistics property Ytteråker 2:5, in Vansbro Sweden; underlying property value of SEK433M
+4.8% M12.GR (M1 Kliniken €14.62, +0.68) -- annual report for 2024 financial year confirming preliminary results as of 29-Apr
+4.6% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.34, +0.02) -- selected to present its clinical data at the Scientific Workshop Poster Session of EDRN
+4.5% CARR.LN (Carr's Group £1.52, +0.06) -- to return up-to-£70M to shareholders via 163p per share tender offer
+4.4% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.48, +0.06) -- upgrades guidance for 2025 due to successful commercial ramp-up of QUVIVIQ
+4.1% ZIG.LN (Zigup Plc £3.50, +0.14) -- ZIGUP PLC FY Trading Update: expect to finish the year modestly ahead of market expectations
+4.1% ORNBV.FH (Orion €60.05, +2.35) -- MSD to carry out Phase 2 trial of MK-5684 to treat breast cancer, ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer
+2.3% SVT.LN (Severn Trent £27.56, +0.62) -- reports FY adj. EPS 112.1p vs FactSet 101.5p [8 est, 98.4-107.9p]
+2.0% BOUV.NO (Bouvet NOK79.50, +1.60) -- reports Q1 EPS NOK1.16 vs FactSet NOK1.20 [3 est, NOK1.17-1.22]
+1.6% FOUR.LN (4imprint Group £35.10, +0.55) -- AGM Trading Update: The group has delivered a resilient operational and financial performance in the early part of 2025
+1.5% STAF.LN (Staffline Group £0.41, +0.01) -- Jan-Apr trading update: reports +6.2% y/y increase in gross profit cont ops
Notable Decliners
-22.4% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.20, -0.06) -- Megrez-1 low test now complete: no mobile oil discovered
-22.3% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.06, -0.02) -- reports Q1 net income (NOK4.1M) vs year-ago (NOK5.4M)
-19.6% SHOE.LN (Shoe Zone £0.93, -0.23) -- H1 EPS (4.9p) vs year-ago 5.6p
-10.6% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £0.85, -0.10) -- reports FY EPS 12.4p vs FactSet 12.1p [17 est, 11.6-12.4p]; Q126 trading in line with expectations
-8.4% HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding €96.70, -9.00) -- reports FY EPS €8.80 vs FactSet €9.58 [6 est, €8.82-10.17]; revenues and adj. EBIT in line with prelims; issues guidance 2025/26
-6.9% TMO.LN (Time Out Group £0.27, -0.02) -- FY Trading Update: adjusted EBITDA after central costs £11-13M vs FactSet £15.4M [1 est]
-5.7% HEIT.LN (Harmony Energy Income Trust £0.92, -0.05) -- Drax Group confirms that it will not be increasing the financial terms of its offer for HEIT; offer expected to lapse on 29-May
-5.7% HEIT.LN (Harmony Energy Income Trust £0.92, -0.05) -- UK's Takeover Panel announces cancellation of auction procedure regarding HEIT
-5.4% NORSE.NO (Norse Atlantic NOK6.30, -0.35) -- Q1 net income ($14.9M) vs year-ago ($62.8M)
-5.3% RS1.LN (RS Group plc £5.82, -0.32) -- reports FY EPS 39.1p ex-items vs FactSet 38.0p [14 est, 35.5-39.1p]
-5.0% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical SEK1.22, -0.06) -- reports Q1 EPS (SEK0.08) vs year-ago (SEK0.05)
-4.8% PRS.NO (Prosafe NOK8.05, -0.41) -- reports Apr Fleet utilisation of 58%
-4.8% PRS.NO (Prosafe NOK8.05, -0.41) -- reports Q1 EPS ($0.83) vs year-ago ($0.48)
-4.8% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group CHF54.68, -2.78) -- 4M trading update: AuM CHF 467B; announces total net charge of CHF 130M; outlook remains uncertain
-4.7% CADLR.NO (Cadeler NOK49.90, -2.42) -- reports Q1 EBITDA €24.0M vs FactSet €37.5M [8 est, €20-53M]; confirms FY25 outlook
-4.5% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group NOK76.65, -3.65) -- reports Q1 EPS ($0.22) vs FactSet ($0.17) [8 est, ($0.22)-(0.09)]
-3.6% CMBT.BB (CMB.TECH €8.30, -0.31) -- reports Q1 net income $44.0M vs FactSet $38.3M [4 est, $23.7-51M]
-3.5% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £3.55, -0.13) -- reports Q3 net interest margin 7.1% vs H1 25 7.3%; expect FY net interest margin to be ~7%
-3.5% NETEL.SS (Netel Holding SEK9.57, -0.36) -- Holder Cinnamon International completes sale of ~22.6M shares (~46.7%) in Netel Holding AB
-3.3% PPC.GA (Public Power Corp. €13.31, -0.46) -- on track to achieve its 2027 RES target with minimized execution risk - slides
-2.8% PTEC.LN (Playtech £3.43, -0.10) -- trading update: 4M trading in line with expectations
-2.5% KER.FP (Kering €180.04, -4.64) -- Kering Eyewear partners with Google (GOOGL) to develop AI-powered glasses with Android XR
-2.4% SSE.LN (Scottish and Southern Energy £17.64, -0.43) -- reports FY EPS 160.9p ex-items vs FactSet 158.5p [14 est, 155.5-164.1p]
-2.4% COA.LN (Coats Group £0.77, -0.02) -- Jan-Apr trading update: group revenue (constant exchange rate) increased by +4% y/y
-2.3% CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding NOK135.80, -3.10) -- reports Q1 EPS NOK0.54 vs FactSet NOK1.12 [4 est, NOK0.90-1.29]
-2.3% IHP.LN (Integrafin Holdings £3.13, -0.07) -- reports H1 underlying EPS 8.8p vs FactSet 8.5p [3 est, 8.0-9.3p]
-2.2% TNXT.IM (Tinexta €11.66, -0.26) -- closes the acquisition of 25% stake in ABF Group (post EU close 20-May)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Gimv (GIMB.BB)
DACHs: CTS Eventim (EVD.GR), Datagroup (D6H.GR), Allane (LNSX.GR), NFON (NFN.GR), PORR (POS.AV), BKS Bank (BKS.AV), Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment (SBO.AV)
Nordics: Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS), Done.ai Group (DONE.SS), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Måsøval (MAS.NO), SP Group (SPG.DC), PARKEN Sport & Entertainment (PARKEN.DC)
Southern Europe: Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM), Multitude (FRU.MIL.IM)
UK: BT Group (BT.A.LN), EasyJet (EZJ.LN), British Land Co. (BLND.LN), Investec (INVP.LN), Tate & Lyle (TATE.LN), QinetiQ Group (QQ.LN), Atalaya Mining (ATYM.LN), Impax Asset Management Group (IPX.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Ion Beam Applications (IBAB.BB)
DACHs: Galenica (GALE.SW), STRABAG SE (STR.AV), 2G Energy (2GB.GR)
France: GENFIT (GNFT.FP)
UK: Intertek Group (ITRK.LN), ConvaTec Group (CTEC.LN), Hill & Smith (HILS.LN), Zotefoams (ZTF.LN)
Data:
Economics:
UK Apr CPI +3.5% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and prior +2.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Jul): ($0.22) or (0.35%) to $61.81
€-$ +0.0056 or +0.50% to 1.1341
£-$ +0.0052 or +0.39% to 1.3445
€-£ +0.0011 to 0.8436
S&P 500 (0.16%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +7.51%
DAX: +21.16%
CAC: +7.18%
MIB: +18.62%
Stoxx 600: +9.10%
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