May 21 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed/little changed. Asian equities mixed to mostly higher Wednesday. In latest trade news, preliminary figures show US-China trade truce leading to revival in trade with freighter bookings and shipping rates seeing large increases over past week. Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers discussing tariffs on de minimis Chinese goods in bid to combat oversupply of cheap imports.
Focus this morning on UK inflation data, which will be released at 07:00 BST. The April inflation report is expected to show significant jump driven by several key factors: regulated price resets at the start of the UK financial year, including 6.4% increase in Ofgem energy price cap and substantial water bill increases. Timing of Easter may also cause notable seasonal effects, particularly in airfares. Services inflation projected to accelerate citing employers passing through increased costs from National Insurance Contributions hike and National Living Wage increase. Core goods inflation is also expected to strengthen. Consensus sees 3.3% versus 2.6% prior for headline, and 3.6% versus 3.4% prior for core.
Elsewhere, focus on geopolitics following report (CNN ) Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities
In corporate highlights, Julius Baer (BAER.SW) reported its interim management statement with AuM in line but focus on an unexpected CHF 130M loan loss charge. EFG International (EFGN.SW) issued 4M trading update: net profit ~ CHF 130M vs year-ago more than CHF 110M; management remains confident about ability to exceed 2025 ambition. In the UK, notable companies reporting including Marks & Spencer (MKS.LN), Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE.LN), JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), and Currys (CURY.LN),
In central banks, Riksbank's Seim will discuss at 8:00CET current monetary policy and the economic situation at event hosted by Handelsbanken. Bundesbank's Balz panellist at 9:35BST on final day of OMFIF's Digital Money Summit (Tue-Wed). ECB's Lane speech at 18:00CET at event hosted by JEEA/BBVA Foundation. Bank of Spain's Escrivá speaks at 19:30CET at event hosted by Expansion (through Thu). Portugal central bank's Centeno presents bank's annual and financial stability reports. ECB set to release its latest Financial Stability Review at 10:00CET.
In politics, in Germany, Chancellor Merz will receive the Council of Economic Experts for a meeting and deliver a speech at Construction Industry Day. EU - African Union Ministerial Meeting and there's a meeting of European Economic Area Council (provisional agenda), EU's Šefčovič participates.
Politics/Macro/World News
Reeves to Meet Bessent as Questions Linger Over UK-US Deal -- Bloomberg
UK inflation expected to rise after household bills increase -- BBC
April US Architecture Billings Index (ABI) falls to 43.2 from 44.1 in March
According to US intelligence, Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities - CNN
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- Vinci reports Apr airport passenger traffic +9.4%
ALATI.FP (Actia Group) -- reports Q1 revenue €125.8M, (10%) vs year-ago €139.8M
Benelux
EURN.BB (CMB.TECH) -- reports Q1 net income $44.0M vs FactSet $38.3M [4 est, $23.7-51M]
ELI.BB (Elia Group SA/NV) -- Q1 Trading Update: Reaffirms FY guidance
DACH
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- trading update for first four months of 2025: AuM CHF 467B; announces total net charge of CHF 130M; outlook remains uncertain
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- reports Q1 Adjusted EBITDA CHF46.0M vs FactSet CHF42.2M [2 est, CHF40.1-44.2M]; On a standalone basis, SoftwareOne confirms its 2025 full-year guidance ; Crayon closing expected in Jun-25
EFGN.SW (EFG International) -- 4M trading update: net profit ~ CHF 130M vs year-ago more than CHF 110M; management remains confident about ability to exceed 2025 ambition
YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF87.5M vs FactSet CHF105.1M [3 est, CHF92.0-124M]; initiates sale of Diabetes Care business
HBH.GR Hornbach Holding reports FY EPS €8.80 vs FactSet €9.58 [6 est, €8.82-10.17]; revenues and adj. EBIT in line with prelims; issues guidance 2025/26 with Adj EBIT expected at the level of 2024/25 financial year, ie €269.5M vs FactSet €283.8M
Nordics
PRS.NO (Prosafe) -- reports Q1 EPS ($0.83) vs year-ago ($0.48)
CLCO.NO (Cool Co.) -- reports Q1 net income $9.1M vs FactSet $17.2M [7 est, $13-26.1M]
SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig) -- reports Q1 EPS (NOK0.22) vs FactSet (NOK0.12) [3 est, (NOK0.20)-(0.06)]
Greece
PPC.GA (Public Power Corp.) -- on track to achieve its 2027 RES target with minimized execution risk - slides
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: CA Immobilien Anlagen (CAI.AV), Freenet (FNTN.GR)
Denmark: United International Enterprises (UIE.DC), TCM Group (TCM.DC), North Media (NORTHM.DC), Lollands Bank (LOLB.DC)
Finland: Musti Group (MUSTI.FH)
France: Elior Group (ELIOR.FP)
Norway: Cadeler (CADLR.NO), Crayon Group Holding (CRAYN.NO), Bouvet (BOUV.NO), Panoro Energy (PEN.NO), Edda Wind (EWIND.NO), Nordic Mining (NOM.NO), Norse Atlantic (NORSE.NO), Awilco LNG (ALNG.NO), BerGenBio (BGBIO.NO)
Southern Europe: Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP.PL), Sonae SGPS (SON.PL), MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE (MFEB.IM)
Sweden: BioArctic (BIOA.B.SS), Better Collective (BETCO.SS), Genovis (GENO.SS), Isofol Medical (ISOFOL.SS)
UK: Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE.LN), JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), Marks & Spencer (MKS.LN), Great Portland Estates (GPE.LN), Integrafin Holdings (IHP.LN), Avon Technologies (AVON.LN), MHP (MHPC.LN), Helical (HLCL.LN)
Other: Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC (MOEX.RU), Mobile TeleSystems (MTSS.RU)
Trading Update:
Southern Europe: ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry (ELHA.GA)
UK: Currys (CURY.LN), Coats Group (COA.LN), Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN)
CMD/events: Currys (CURY.LN), Fiskars (FSKRS.FH) Get to know Vita (luxury & lifestyle brands), STV Group (STVG.LN), Camellia (CAM.LN)
M&A
HEIT.LN (Harmony Energy Income Trust)
Drax Group confirms that it will not be increasing the financial terms of its offer for HEIT; offer expected to lapse on 29-May
UK's Takeover Panel announces cancellation of auction procedure regarding HEIT
ALV.GR (Allianz) -- Bajaj Finserv receives Competition Commission of India approval for acquisition of stakes in subsidiaries held by Allianz SE
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- notes receipt of $239.6M in gross proceeds from sale of Waystar shares
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA panel votes that STARGLO population and trial results are not applicable to the proposed US patient population
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- provides update on FDA advisory committee meeting on Columvi combination for people with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- to receive €26.5M milestone payment following approval of pricing and reimbursement of Ipsen's Iqirvo in Italy
PRTC.LN (PureTech Health) -- provides further insights into Phase IIb ELEVATE IPF trial of deupirfenidone (LYT-100) at ATS 2025
ORNBV.FH (Orion) -- MSD to carry out Phase 2 trial of MK-5684 to treat breast cancer, ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer (20-May, timing uncertain)
OXUR.BB (Oxurion) -- has been notified that Atlas Special Opportunities II LLC holds 1,230,728 shares in as of 20-May
Other
+NOBA.SS NOBA Bank Group owner Nordic Capital revisiting potential of carrying out an IPO - Dagens Industri (20-May)
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- proposes to increase annual dividend by 8.6% to CHF1.26 from CHF1.16 for FY25
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin publishes global tire market data for Apr
IFX.GR (Infineon) -- to collaborates with NVIDIA for industry-first 800 V power delivery architecture for AI data centers
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- Helicopters U.S. named principal contractor for $100M sale to Bosnia and Herzegovina
PRS.SM (Promotora de Informaciones) -- CFO Pilar Gil Miguel appointed as CEO of PRISA Media
Argentina approves Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project - Reuters
Regional Gaming Revenues - Massachusetts April 2025
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Morgan Stanley upgrades A5G.ID, ABN.NA, BIRG.ID
ASM.NA (ASM International) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
FDR.SM (Fluidra) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
LAND.LN (Land Securities Group) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades NDA.FI.FH, SEB.A.SS, SHB.A.SS
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
Initiations
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (0.47%) to 37354.36
Hang Seng +0.64% to 23833.79
Shanghai Composite +0.25% to 3388.90
S&P futures (25.8) vs prior close of 5959.8
€-$ +0.0050 or +0.45% to 1.1335
$-¥ (0.97) or (0.67%) to 143.53
€-¥ (0.37) or (0.23%) to 162.69
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