May 22 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended in negative territory, however off the session's lows. In macro-news, German business sentiment brightened in May as companies shifted focus from trade uncertainties to anticipated fiscal stimulus under new government. Ifo expectations index rose to 88.9 from 87.4, highest in a year and exceeding analyst forecasts of 88.0. Recent sharp rise in uncertainty among companies eased somewhat, suggesting German economy slowly regaining footing. Improvement came despite current conditions weakening slightly to 86.1 from 86.4. Optimism reflects hopes around Chancellor Merz's infrastructure and defense spending plans, which experts believe could jumpstart growth from 2026. However, Germany faces unprecedented challenge of three consecutive years without growth, with 2025 expected to see zero expansion. Sentiment divergence notable given Thursday's disappointing PMI data showing private sector contraction. While services activity plummeted to over two-year lows, manufacturing showed resilience, possibly benefiting from pre-tariff order frontloading. ING analysts noted German businesses appear to be focusing on the bright side of potential government action rather than dwelling on ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties. Also, Eurozone business activity unexpectedly contracted in May as dominant services sector deteriorated sharply, overshadowing manufacturing improvements (Bloomberg). HCOB composite PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4 prior and 50.7 expected, marking the first sub-50 reading this year and confounding analyst expectations. Services PMI plummeted to 48.9 from 50.1 prior and 50.3 expected, hitting lowest level since Jan. Business confidence among service firms declined to near three-year lows as domestic demand remained sluggish. HCOB noted Eurozone economy just cannot seem to find its footing. Manufacturing provided the sole bright spot, with its PMI rising to 49.4 from 49.0 prior and 49.3 expected, reaching near three-year high. Companies appear to be front-loading orders ahead of potential US tariff increases, while lower oil prices and expectations of further ECB rate cuts support the sector's recovery prospects. Weakness was broad-based, with Germany's composite PMI dropping to 48.6 and France remaining in contraction for a ninth consecutive month. Data suggests economic momentum remains fragile despite earlier optimism about 2025 growth prospects.
In central banks news, Reuters reported that the ECB is expected to cut rates again in June, but policymakers may pause further easing as the economy proves resilient and longer-term inflation risks rise. Markets now anticipate only one more cut this year, reflecting these shifting dynamics. ECB's Vujcic stated that inflation converging towards 2% target: also adding that he nows sees inflation converging to 2% target, which is expected to be reached in early 2026. Also, ECB's Nagel is seeing progress on EU-US tariffs but warns hurdles remain, expecting Europe's growth to stagnate this year due to tariff uncertainty, with improvement possible in 2026
On the reporting front, Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM) posted Q1 numbers before the open whilst - still in Italy - Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) issued comments after Italy's CONSOB decision to suspend UniCredit (UCG.IM) offer. In the DACH region, Galenica (GALE.SW), CA Immobilien Anlagen (CAI.AV), Freenet (FNTN.GR), Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment (SBO.AV), STRABAG SE (STR.AV) and CTS Eventim (EVD.GR) issued their most recent numbers whilst - in France - Elior Group (ELIOR.FP) reported H1 earnings. In the UK, BT Group (BT.A.LN) and Johnson Matthey (JMAT.LN) were among few other names from the region to update investors, with the latter also confirming earlier reports about the sale of its Catalyst Technologies business segment to Honeywell International for £1.8B cash
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, on a light earnings front, UNIQA Insurance (UQA.AV), The Platform Group (TPG.GR), Matas (MATAS.DC), Integrated Wind Solutions (IWS.NO), Webstep (WSTEP.NO), AJ Bell (AJB.LN), Unifiedpost Group (UPG.BB) and
Inventiva (IVA.FP) will be update investors. Macro-data will include Germany Q1 final GDP, UK Apr retail sales and May consumer confidence - GfK and France May consumer confidence among others
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Chemicals +0.01%, Insurance (0.03%), Utilities (0.08%), Telecom (0.10%), Banks (0.17%), Retail (0.20%), Media (0.42%)
Underperformers: Autos & Parts (1.58%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.26%), Real Estate (1.24%), Travel & Leisure (1.04%), Construct & Mtls (1.02%), Basic Resources (0.96%), Health Care (0.93%), Oil & Gas (0.92%), Financial Svcs (0.81%), Food & Beverage (0.73%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.72%), Technology (0.67%)
Macro:
EU Set to Delay Implementation of New Trading Rule for Banks (BBG)
Germany's Merz inaugurates a historic new brigade in Lithuania and pushes for security spending (Independent)
Macron Talks Up China Ties and Touts Progress on Cognac (BBG)
Yellow hat revolt: Inside France's rural rising (Politico)
UK court lifts injunction, allowing Chagos Islands deal to proceed (Reuters)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+49.9% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF3.20, +1.07) -- RLF-TD011 for epidermolysis bullosa granted FDA's Rare Pediatric Disease designation
+30.7% JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey £18.15, +4.26) -- FY earnings
+21.7% WRKS.LN (TheWorks.co.uk £0.37, +0.07) -- FY trading update
+8.7% SON.PL (Sonae SGPS €1.27, +0.10) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% CAI.AV (CA Immobilien Anlagen €24.32, +1.66) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £2.94, +0.20) -- 4M trading update
+6.8% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £4.70, +0.30) -- FY earnings; contract extension worth £1.54B with UK's MoD
+5.7% MULT.GR (Multitude €6.51, +0.35) -- Q1 earnings
+5.3% GIMB.BB (Gimv €46.55, +2.35) -- FY earnings
+3.6% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.75, +0.06) -- FY earnings
+2.0% ELHA.GA (ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry €2.27, +0.04) -- Q1 earnings
+2.0% MAB.LN (Mitchells & Butlers £2.82, +0.06) -- H1 earnings
+2.0% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.43, +0.03) -- 4M trading update
+1.9% HEAD.LN (Headlam Group £0.96, +0.02) -- 4M trading update
+1.8% RBT.FP (Robertet €850.00, +15.00) -- 2030 strategic plan
+0.8% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €9.12, +0.07) -- divests 12.4% of Swedish forest holdings for €900M
Notable Decliners
-19.5% BMY.LN (Bloomsbury Publishing £5.24, -1.27) -- FY earnings
-17.0% EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group SEK105.00, -21.50) -- FY earnings; plans Coffee Stain Group spinoff
-16.8% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding NOK2.14, -0.43) -- delisting request from Oslo Børs
-16.7% FNTN.GR (Freenet €29.42, -5.90) -- Q1 earnings; Oddo downgrade
-12.2% MPCC.NO (MPC Container Ships NOK15.06, -2.09) -- Q1 earnings; new dividend policy
-6.4% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €31.60, -2.15) -- Q2 earnings
-5.4% BLND.LN (British Land Co. £3.88, -0.22) -- FY earnings
-5.1% TATE.LN (Tate & Lyle £5.73, -0.31) -- FY earnings
-4.8% EVD.GR (CTS Eventim €105.60, -5.34) -- Q1 earnings
-4.8% HILS.LN (Hill & Smith £18.28, -0.92) -- 4M trading update; Shore Capital Stockbrokers downgrade
-4.3% SBO.AV (Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment €31.35, -1.40) -- Q1 earnings
-3.7% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.21, -0.01) -- Q3 operating update
-3.3% ITRK.LN (Intertek Group £47.58, -1.62) -- 4M trading update
-3.0% IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications €11.64, -0.36) -- Q1 business update
-2.9% POS.AV (PORR €30.50, -0.90) -- Q1 earnings
-1.7% ACKB.BB (Ackermans & Van Haaren €231.60, -4.00) -- Q1 trading update; Degroof downgrade
-0.9% EDR.SM (eDreams ODIGEO €7.96, -0.07) -- further share repurchase programme for a maximum of €20M
-0.7% NFN.GR (NFON €6.70, -0.05) -- Q1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
DACHs: UNIQA Insurance Group (UQA.AV), The Platform Group (TPG.GR)
Nordics: Matas (MATAS.DC), Integrated Wind Solutions (IWS.NO), Webstep (WSTEP.NO)
UK: AJ Bell (AJB.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Unifiedpost Group (UPG.BB)
France: Inventiva (IVA.FP)
Data:
Economics:
May Flash Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone 48.4 vs consensus 49.3 and prior 49.0
Germany 48.8 vs consensus 48.9 and prior 48.4
France 49.5 vs consensus 48.9 and prior 48.7
UK 45.1 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 45.4
Germany May IFO Business Climate 87.5 vs consensus 87.4 and prior 86.9
France May Business Survey 97 vs consensus 99 and prior revised 100 from 99
Apr Unemployment Rate
Finland 10.0% vs consensus 10.2% and prior 10.1%
Norway 4.3% vs consensus 4.5% and prior 4.4%
UK
May CBI Industrial Trends Orders (30) vs consensus (25) and prior (26)
Apr Public Sector Net Borrowing £20.16B vs consensus £17.9B and prior revised £14.14B from £16.44B
Ireland Apr PPI (3.6%) y/y vs consensus (3.4%) and prior (1.9%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): ($0.62) or (1.01%) to $60.95
€-$ (0.0044) or (0.39%) to 1.1287
£-$ +0.0006 or +0.05% to 1.3427
€-£ (0.0036) to 0.8407
S&P 500 +0.07%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.93%
DAX: +20.54%
CAC: +6.55%
MIB: +17.76%
Stoxx 600: +8.40%
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