May 23 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity market closed lower but well off earlier lows. Real Estate, Basic Resources, and Utilities lead; Autos & Parts, Banks, and Technology lag. Follows negative performance on Thursday which snapped a five-day winning streak and gave back most of this week's gains. US equities lower in Friday morning trading, a bit off worst levels. Follows stocks seeing a narrowly mixed finish on Thursday.
Trade back on the front burner after Trump during the midday European session said discussions with EU are "going nowhere" and said a "straight 50% tariff" will be applied on the bloc starting 1-Jun. Followed earlier reporting US was likely to reject EU's latest offer in a call with USTR Greer this afternoon; recall Bessent said last weekend countries need to negotiate in good faith or face the US simply setting a tariff rate. Trump post punctuates a week where White House has continued to tout ongoing negotiations though showing few concrete developments (with the 90-day pause now nearly halfway over). Has been some waning optimism on the US-China front (though parties held first call since Geneva de-escalation), while negotiations with Japan moving slowly.
Trump also warned AAPL it needs to manufacture iPhones in the US or face a tariff of at least 25%. Otherwise not much in the headlines. Focus on lackluster bond auctions in Japan and US this week showed lack of demand for long tenors with bond vigilantes showing results of current climate of uncertainty. ECB's Lagarde said international trade will be changed forever by tensions over tariffs. On the Fed front, as SCOTUS shielded central from ruling that allows Trump to remove officials at other agencies. However, despite Trump's continued push for Fed to lower rates, market concern about him trying to push out Powell has been dialed back.
In Europe, focus initially on much stronger UK retail sales data for April, which posted 5% y/y versus 4.5% expected and 2.6% prior. German final Q1 GDP data came in 0.4% Q/Q versus 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. Eurozone wage growth slowed, reinforcing ECB's inflation outlook. In the UK, GfK consumer confidence improved in May. Barclays no longer expects BoE cut in June. On tariffs, US negotiators reportedly expect unilateral concessions from Europe. In the US, new home sales on the economic calendar this morning. Street looking for new home sales to decline 4.7% in April following a 7.4% increase in March.
On a light reporting front, Nordic names in the spotlight, with Frontline (FRO.NO) and Matas (MATAS.DC) posting their most recent numbers. GENFIT (GNFT.FP) reports Q1 revenue €2.8M vs year-ago €1.1M. In the UK, AJ Bell (AJB.LN), Games Workshop Group (GAW.LN) post latest earnings and trading update.
In M&A news, Salzgitter (SZG.GR) is exploring sale of bottling machine unit KHS, whilst Crédit Coopératif signs MoU with Orange (ORA.FP) regarding the possible acquisition of the fintech Anytime. In Italy, UniCredit (UCG,IM) rejected in their entirety the allegations made by BPM (BAMI.IM) in its press release posted yesterday, whilst Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS) is reportedly considering the sale of its simulation software business.
Looking ahead to Monday's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 26-May to 30-May attached) Retail Estates (RET.BB), EVN (EVN.AV), Constellation Oil Services Holding (COSH.NO), Jinhui Shipping & Transportation (JIN.NO), and Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Sweden Apr PPI, Spain Apr PPI, Finland Apr PPI with Holidays for the UK.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +0.45%, Basic Resources +0.20%, Utilities +0.06%, Media (0.21%), Food & Beverage (0.23%), Oil & Gas (0.34%), Construct & Mtls (0.36%), Health Care (0.55%), Financial Svcs (0.74%), Travel & Leisure (0.77%), Chemicals (0.87%),
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (3.10%), Banks (1.78%), Technology (1.62%), Retail (1.13%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.12%), Insurance (1.12%), Telecom (0.96%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.94%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
EU
UK
Reeves pushes back as Rayner demands more social housing cash - The Telegraph
No 10 delays child poverty strategy with tens of thousands more facing hardship - The Guardian
Germany
First signs of labour market stabilisation - Handelsblatt
German government divided on how to deal with nuclear power at EU level - Handelsblatt
Spain
EU countries resist Spain on making Catalan official language - Politico
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+54.2% ACTI.SS (Active Biotech SEK0.24, +0.08) -- study results with tasquinimod
+9.7% BICO.SS (BICO Group SEK36.80, +3.26) -- COO to step down
+8.6% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £4.96, +0.39) -- H1 earnings
+7.3% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.24, +0.02) -- updates on current trading and prospects
+6.5% TPE.GR (PVA TePla €17.09, +1.04) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+5.4% EPWN.LN (Epwin Group £0.97, +0.05) -- AGM trading update
+4.1% SF.SS (Stillfront Group SEK7.26, +0.28) -- unveils collaboration with Games Workshop
+2.7% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK3.97, +0.11) -- presents OPTIMIZE-1 biomarker data at ASCO 2025 Annual Meeting
+2.0% THULE.SS (Thule Group SEK249.20, +5.00) -- Nordea upgrade
+1.6% PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media €7.19, +0.11)
Trading Lower:
-10.1% MATAS.DC (Matas DKK140.00, -15.80) -- FY earnings
-9.5% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK0.76, -0.08) -- announces three abstracts based on studies using the blood test DiviTum Tka
-8.5% ALTR.PL (Altri SGPS €5.69, -0.53) -- Q1 earnings; Santander downrade
-6.9% AVTX.NA (Avantium €12.56, -0.93) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.5% LEHN.SW (LEM Holding CHF741.00, -43.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-4.6% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €3.86, -0.19) -- Q1 revenue
-2.8% CLA.FP (Claranova €2.82, -0.08) -- calls AGM in view of the potential sale of the PlanetArt division
-2.8% GAW.LN (Games Workshop Group £154.30, -4.40) -- FY trading update; Peel Hunt downgrade
-2.1% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £2.35, -0.05) -- study results
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Retail Estates (RET.BB)
DACHs: EVN (EVN.AV)
Nordics: Constellation Oil Services Holding (COSH.NO), Jinhui Shipping & Transportation (JIN.NO)
Southern Europe: Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA)
CMD/events: Saab (SAAB.B.SS) day 1 of 2 (presentations Tue), Odfjell (ODF.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Q1 GDP 0.0% y/y vs preliminary (0.2%); +0.4% q/q vs preliminary +0.2%
Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate 8.9% vs consensus 8.3% and prior 8.5%
UK Apr Retail Sales +5.0% y/y vs consensus +4.5% and prior revised +1.9% from +2.6%; +1.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.1% from +0.4%
France May Consumer Confidence 88 vs consensus 93 and prior revised 91 from 92
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): +$0.58 or +0.95% to $61.78
€-$ +0.0068 or +0.60% to 1.1348
£-$ +0.0089 or +0.66% to 1.3507
€-£ (0.0005) to 0.8401
S&P 500 (0.68%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.67%
DAX: +18.69%
CAC: +4.79%
MIB: +15.47%
Stoxx 600: +7.39%
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