May 26 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended firmly higher boosted by tariff-sensitive sectors. Germany, Italy outperform. Autos and Industrials are the biggest gainers whilst retail and utilities relative laggards. Follows first negative weekly performance since Apr. Of note, UK and USA (Memorial Day) are closed for public holidays.
Risk appetite improves after Trump extended EU tariff deadline from 1-Jun to 9-Jul following call with EU Commission president von der Leyen. Largely confirms Trump's tariff plans can be regarded as a negotiation tool. Comes after Trump threatened 50% tariffs on EU due to insufficient progress in talks. Development welcome but also highlights broader policy volatility dynamic that is likely to continue overhanging sentiment, with EU equity inflows continuing to outpace US flows.
In geopolitical developments, European leaders now exploring alternative strategies, including purchasing American weapons to supply Ukraine if US military aid ends (SCMP). EU is also preparing new sanctions targeting over 20 Russian banks and oil price caps. With Russia controlling 20% of Ukrainian territory and preparing for potential summer offensive, path to peace remains uncertain despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Light macro calendar with only Swedish and Spanish PPIs releases for April out.
Limited corporate newsflow. Thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR ) is pushing ahead with the strategic realignment of the group while Volvo Cars (VOLCAR.B.SS) announced global redundancies for 1,200 positions, as part of its recently launched cost and cash action plan. Elsewhere, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) starts production from the fourth phase of the Mero field development, located in the Libra block, 180 kilometers offshore Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in the pre-salt Santos Basin.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Jun consumer confidence -GfK, France May preliminary CPI, Switzerland Apr trade balance (monthly watch exports), Eurozone May economic sentiment indicator and UK May distributive trades - CBI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Autos & Parts +1.76%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.53%, Construct & Mtls +1.36%, Health Care +1.25%, Technology +1.17%, Oil & Gas +1.11%
Underperformers:
Retail +0.33%, Utilities +0.45%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.60%, Financial Svcs +0.60%, Food & Beverage +0.61%, Telecom +0.63%, Media +0.66%, Travel & Leisure +0.66%, Real Estate +0.68%, Basic Resources +0.78%, Banks +0.83%, Insurance +0.89%, Chemicals +0.92%
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
EU countries push for swift trade deal with Donald Trump -- FT
UK:
UK to open talks with Kosovo about hosting 'return hub' for failed asylum seekers - report -- Skynews
Germany:
Germany to suspend asylum seekers' rights to bring family members -- Telegraph
France:
France risks running out of cash for social spending, auditors say -- Politico
Italy:
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Vienna Insurance Group (VIG.AV), LEM Holding (LEHN.SW), IVU Traffic Technologies (IVU.GR), ADLER Group (ADJ.GR)
France: SOITEC (SOI.FP), Derichebourg (DBG.FP)
Nordics: L E Lundbergföretagen (LUND.B.SS), SynAct Pharma (SYNACT.SS), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Awilco Drilling (AWNO)
Greece: Fourlis Holdings (FOYRK.GA)
Data:
Economics:
Sweden Apr PPI (2.4%) y/y vs consensus (2.0%) and prior (0.3%)
Spain Apr PPI +1.9% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and prior +4.9%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Jul): +$0.02 or +0.03% to $61.55
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.1379
£-$ +0.0036 or +0.27% to 1.3563
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8390
S&P 500 +0.00%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.67%
DAX: +20.69%
CAC: +6.06%
MIB: +16.97%
Stoxx 600: +8.45%
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