May 27 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended in positive territory, with trading confined to a narrow range. Markets navigating last trade twist with EU promising to fast-track negotiations after President Trump extending EU tariff deadline to 9-Jul. However, White House reportedly rejected EU proposal to completely remove tariffs on industrial goods and increasing opportunities for American agricultural products to reach EU. There remains uncertainty around prospect of deals being struck before 9-Jul deadline, leaving open threat of tariffs reverting to higher levels for countries unable to reach agreements. Near-term focus is also on US-Japan negotiations with more talks expected later this week after Japan officials sounded optimistic following third round of talks last Friday. Trump dissatisfaction with lack of Ukraine ceasefire with threats of further sanctions on Russia also a focal point, supporting defense names
In macro-news, European consumer confidence experienced notable upturn in May, with Eurozone's final reading confirming flash estimate at -15.2, unchanged from preliminary figure but recovering from Apr's -16.7. EU consumer confidence similarly improved to -14.5 from -16.0. Broader Economic Sentiment Indicator exceeded expectations, reaching 94.8 versus estimated 94.1 and Apr's 93.6. Industrial confidence also outperformed forecasts at -10.3 versus -10.5 expected and prior -11.2, while services confidence disappointed at -10.3 against expectations of 1.0, declining from Apr's 1.4. Notably, inflation expectations dropped significantly to 23.6 from revised 29.4. Improvement primarily driven by receding pessimism about general economic situation and renewed optimism regarding household finances and major purchase intentions. In other macro developments, French CPI eased in May, German GfK consumer confidence improved but short of expectations. Meanwhile, UK food inflation the highest in a year, underpinning expectations that inflationary pressures may be more elevated than expected. Swiss exports to the US fell sharply in April after the first month of Trump tariffs. ECB's Holzmann urged pause in rate cuts until Sept. ECB's Patsalides ruled out aggressive easing, said maintaining optionality key
Also on the calendar today, EU car sales remained subdued in Apr-2025, with new registrations dipping by 0.3% to 1.08M units as economic uncertainty and global trade tensions weighed on consumer confidence. EU car sales down 1.2% YTD versus same period 2024. Despite flat overall market, EVs showed strong growth: battery-electric car sales surged 26.4% in first four months, reaching 15.3% market share, while hybrids captured 35.3%. Plug-in hybrids also gained ground, now representing 7.9% of the market. However, traditional petrol and diesel models continued to decline, with petrol's share falling to 28.6% and diesel to 9.6%. Notably, BYD outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time, reflecting shifting dynamics in the electric vehicle segment. Furthemore, Swiss watch exports jumped 18.2% to CHF 2.5b in Apr, driven by extraordinary 149.2% spike in US shipments as manufacturers rushed deliveries ahead of increased customs duties. However, analysts noted headline growth masks underlying weakness in global demand. Excluding US tariff-driven distortion, Swiss exports would have declined 6.4% y/y, highlighting deteriorating market conditions. Key Asian markets continued downward trajectory, with China falling 30.5% and Hong Kong dropping 22.8%. Singapore also declined sharply at 9.2%. Premium timepieces above CHF 3,000 led growth at 22.9%, while mid-tier CHF 200-500 segment contracted 1.2%. Steel watches drove volume increases of 18.9%, with precious metal timepieces rising 23.4% in value
In corporate news, NN Group Capital (NN.NA) released presentation material in connection with its CMD guiding new ambitious financial targets for 2028. In Southern Europe, Mota-Engil SGPS (EGL.PL) and Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA) reported Q1 earnings. In DACHs, Vienna Insurance Group (VIG.AV) and LEM Holding (LEHN.SW) updated investors with their latest numbers with the latter announcing no dividend for the year, whilst ADLER Group (ADLER.GR) released its Q1 earnings report and confirmed its guidance for 2025. In Nordics, Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO) and Constellation Oil Services Holding (COSH.NO) reported Q1 earnings. In France, Elis (ELIS.FP) presented medium-term financial objectives in connection with today's CMD. Out of the UK, Bodycote (BOY.LN) posted trading update and EnQuest (ENQ.LN) provided operations update. In M&A news, Alphawave (AWE.LN) and Qualcomm (QCOM) remain engaged in discussions in respect of possible offer; PUSU Deadline extended to 2-Jun; Serco (SRP.LN) completes acquisition of MTS. Inspired (INSE.LN) in discussions with HGGC regarding a possible cash offer of 81p/sh
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Aroundtown (AT1.GR), BRAIN Biotech (BNN.GR), CPI Europe (CPI.AV), Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Luxor (LUXOR.B.DC), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA), Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN), C&C Group (CCR.LN), Partners Group Private Equity (PEY.LN) and Kingfisher (KGF.LN) will be among few other names to update investors. On the macro-front, Germany May unemployment change, France Q1 final GDP, Apr consumer goods spending, Switzerland Apr economic sentiment index, Norway Apr retail sales will be the main releases
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:Travel & Leisure +1.34%, Technology +1.10%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.89%, Oil & Gas +0.66%, Retail +0.63%, Real Estate +0.44%, Chemicals +0.42%, Financial Svcs +0.38%
Underperformers: Utilities (0.51%), Construct & Mtls (0.37%), Media (0.25%), Autos & Parts (0.22%), Insurance (0.05%), Telecom (0.04%), Food & Beverage +0.03%, Health Care +0.08%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.18%, Basic Resources +0.20%, Banks +0.32%
Macro:
Trump Lauds EU for Speeding Tariff Negotiations After Threat (BBG)
US-EU talks must be 'political not bureaucratic'- Italy PM Meloni (Ansa)
Rachel Reeves should refine fiscal rules to avoid emergency spending cuts, IMF says (Guardian)
Germany shifts tone on Israel over 'incomprehensible' Gaza carnage (Reuters)
Germany's Merz: No more range limits for weapons to Ukraine (dw)
EU to approve Bulgaria's euro bid (Politico)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+11.4% ELM.LN (Elementis £1.46, +0.15) -- sells Talc business to IMI Fabi at $121M
+11.2% ALCOX.FP (Nicox €0.24, +0.02) -- received up to €3M in milestone payments from Kowa in 2025
+8.5% INSE.LN (Inspired £0.77, +0.06) -- in discussions with HGGC regarding a possible cash offer of 81p per share
+7.7% SBX.NO (Seabird Exploration NOK6.72, +0.48) -- completes combination with Energy Drilling; contract
+5.1% BOY.LN (Bodycote £5.56, +0.27) -- trading update
+4.5% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £3.36, +0.15) -- sector move
+4.2% FRAS.LN (Frasers Group £7.22, +0.30) -- XXL ASA board now recommends shareholders accept NOK10/sh offer from company; XXL ASA holders Altor Invest 5 AS and Altor Invest 6 AS have today accepted the mandatory offer
+3.9% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €1.01, +0.04) -- secures additional convertible financing of €6.3M
+3.1% BA.LN (BAE Systems £18.95, +0.57)
+2.3% HPHA.GR (Heidelberg Pharma €3.55, +0.08) -- study update
+2.1% ELIS.FP (Elis €24.10, +0.50) -- CMD
+1.8% DCC.LN (DCC £46.00, +0.80) -- launches previously announced share buyback programme of up to a maximum of £100M
+1.2% JET2.LN (Jet2 £17.98, +0.21) -- sector move
+1.0% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF159.70, +1.60) -- Swiss Watch Exports +34.9% to CHF 1.57B
+0.8% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €1.70, +0.01) -- to scale-up the ZENEO Factory 's versatility and capacity in anticipation of full product pipeline deployment
+0.5% ITRK.LN (Intertek Group £48.20, +0.26) -- Chair to step down; appoints new Chair
+0.3% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £5.56, +0.02) -- sector move
Notable Decliners
-5.7% HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining £2.73, -0.16) -- COO steps down
-4.7% AEDAS.SM (AEDAS Homes €28.15, -1.40) -- Neinor confirms that it is in discussions with Castlelake regarding a potential corporate transaction with AEDAS Homes
-4.3% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK9.90, -0.44) -- board now recommends shareholders accept NOK10/sh offer from Frasers; holders Altor Invest 5 AS and Altor Invest 6 AS have today accepted the mandatory offer
-3.9% EGL.PL (Mota-Engil SGPS €4.53, -0.18) -- Q1 earnings
-3.9% HOME.SM (Neinor Homes €14.00, -0.56) -- confirms that it is in discussions with Castlelake regarding a potential corporate transaction with AEDAS Homes
-3.0% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £2.45, -0.07) -- publication of a new peer-reviewed preclinical study in scientific reports
-1.5% ADJ.GR (ADLER Group €0.27, -0.00) -- Q1 earnings
-0.7% DONE.SS (Done.ai Group SEK11.22, -0.08) -- placement
-0.5% BATS.LN (British American Tobacco £33.30, -0.16) -- to place 2.3% stake in ITC Limited
-0.4% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF140.40, -0.55) -- Swiss Watch Exports +34.9% to CHF 1.57B
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
DACHs: Aroundtown (AT1.GR), Novem Group (NVM.GR), BRAIN Biotech (BNN.GR), CPI Europe (CPI.AV),
Nordics: Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Paratus Energy Services (PLSV.NO), Andfjord Salmon Group (ANDF.NO), Luxor (LUXOR.B.DC) Per Aarsleff Holding (PAAL.B.DC)
Southern Europe: Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA)
UK: Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN), C&C Group (CCR.LN), Partners Group Private Equity (PEY.LN), Integrated Diagnostics Holdings (IDHC.LN), Saniona (0RQJ.LN)
Trading Update:: Kingfisher (KGF.LN)
CMD/events: Orkla (ORK.NO), Soitec (SOI.FP), Grenergy Renovables (GRE.SM), AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) sustainability 2024 highlights call
Data:
Economics:
Germany Jun GfK Consumer Confidence (19.9) vs consensus (19.0) and prior revised (20.8) from (20.6)
France May Preliminary CPI +0.7% y/y vs consensus +0.9% and prior +0.8%
Switzerland Apr
Trade Balance CHF6.36B vs consensus CHF5.6B and prior revised CHF6.29B from CHF6.35B
Swiss Watch Exports +34.9% to CHF 1.57B
Denmark Apr Retail Sales +4.9% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior revise d+1.7% from +1.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): ($1.08) or (1.76%) to $60.45
€-$ (0.0057) or (0.50%) to 1.1332
£-$ (0.0056) or (0.41%) to 1.3507
€-£ (0.0005) to 0.8392
S&P 500 +1.65%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.40%
DAX: +21.69%
CAC: +6.04%
MIB: +17.37%
Stoxx 600: +8.81%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE