Jun 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended lower almost everywhere Monday as US-China trade tensions escalated. Hong Kong saw losses across-the-board. Taiwan was also sharply lower as it caught up with Friday's negative session on top of today's selloff. The Nikkei underperformed the Topix. India trading lower but outperforming, Australia and Southeast Asia down. Mainland China exchanges and several Southeast Asia boards closed for holidays. US futures down, Europe lower in the first hour of trade. US dollar selling off in the afternoon session; yen, NZD and AUD all rallying. Treasuries yields higher across tenors. Crude blends higher after the OPEC+ production hike was lower than expected. Copper surged around 5% on US tariff fears but iron ore hit a four-week low. Precious metals higher as haven demand increases.
Asia stocks lower almost across the region Monday with only South Korea's Kospi a handful of points higher as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics stayed positive. Sentiment on tariffs and trade deteriorated over the weekend after President Trump accused China of violating the US-China agreement signed in Geneva. Beijing denied the claim and pledged to take measures to defend its interests while analysts said the step down in relations probably pushed out a proposed Xi-Trump call.
China PMIs showed manufacturing contracted again in May albeit it with a slight deceleration in the pace of decline. Regional PMIs contracted for a second consecutive month in May almost everywhere although there were signs of stability even as new orders and output fell again. India was an exception in showing further growth but even here the pace of expansion slowed. China home sales fell again in May. Total South Korea exports fell in May by less than expected; Japan capex spend grew to a record high in May; Indonesia inflation fell to just 1.6% in May.
New World Development (17.HK) said it would delay interest payments of around $77M on several of its bonds sending its bond and stock prices to record lows. POSCO (005490.KS) and SeAH Steel Corp (306200.KS) stocks underperformed notably following President Trump's announcement that steel imports into the US would be taxed at 50%. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is nearing a deal to invest in Perplexity AI that will put Perplexity's technology preloaded onto Samsung phones. India airline Indigo (InterGlobe Aviation, 539448.IN) entered into an agreement with Air France-KLM, Delta Airlines and Virgin Atlantic that will expand its long-haul services.
Digest:
Trump to double steel and aluminum tariffs as Nippon-US Steel deal looks to be on track:
Reuters cited an announcement from US President Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Friday that he plans to increase steel tariffs to 50% from 25%. Trump later posted on Truth Social the tariff hike also applies to aluminum and will be effective 4-Jun. The announcement drew criticisms from trading partners. European Commission indicated on Saturday that Europe is prepared to retaliate. Tariff hike to protect American steel and jobs tied in with Trump's promotion of the deal between Nippon Steel (5401.JP) and US Steel (X). According to Bloomberg, Trump told reporters that he still needed to approve the final terms of the deal, though touted major windfalls from Nippon's $14B proposed investments. Amid ongoing market attention on the details, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Dan Meuser suggested the deal is "as good as done." Story recalled Trump clarified US will retain control of the company and sources said part of the agreement includes US government retaining certain powers, including over board membership. Senator David McCormick described it as a "golden share," echoing a prior press leak, though it is unclear if that means an equity stake or just some stipulation granting the government some form of power to intervene. Still some unclarity over the next steps required to consummate the deal.
US-China tensions continue to simmer over trade, technology and Taiwan:
US-China tensions notching higher again following last month's détente in Geneva. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday said talks had stalled, which was followed by President Trump accusing Beijing of violating Geneva deal (Reuters). Trump and Bessent did not specify what aspect of talks stalled though media sources pointed to US frustration at China's stonewalling on easing rare earths export curbs. China Commerce Ministry rejected accusations and pinned blame on US for reneging on Geneva deal, adding that it would take forceful measures to safeguard its interests (Bloomberg). Speaking on CBS, Bessent expressed confidence a Trump-Xi call will iron out differences and that he anticipates a discussion very soon. US Commerce Department's warning against use of Huawei chips said to have prompted China's response on rare earths. Since then, US reportedly moving to widen tech curbs with Bloomberg sources noting White House planning to extend licensing requirements to company subsidiaries as soon as June, drawing more Chinese firms under the sanctions net. Tensions also simmering on geopolitical front with China rebuking US after Defense Secretary Hegseth warned conflict over Taiwan could be imminent (Bloomberg).
China calls for an end to automakers' price wars:
China's industry ministry urged carmakers to halt price wars and said it would join hands with law enforcement agencies to take necessary regulatory measures (Xinhua, Reuters). Said price wars were threat to sector's health and sustainable development and there are no winners out of it. Remarks echoed similar call by China Association of Auto Manufacturers (CAAM) that warned against "vicious competition" (Bloomberg). Noted price wars by Chinese carmakers begun in early 2023 were elevated by BYD (1211.HK) after it slashed prices by as much as 34% on various models on 23-May, sending its shares and those of other EV makers including Li Auto (2015.HK), Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) and Geely (175.HK) all lower last week (Bloomberg). BYD shares continued to be under pressure on Monday, dropping 2.8% after 15.6% plunge last week, as it faces growing backlash for its role in leading the "rat-race competition" (Bloomberg).
South Korea trade data shows regional tariff impacts so far limited by 90-day reprieve:
Customs exports fell 1.3% y/y in May, following 3.7% growth in the previous month to mark the first decline in four months. However, weakness was less than expected 2.7% drop, while calendar day adjusted measure rose 1.0%. US tariffs widely cited as the main factor, though damage has been so far mitigated by the 90-day reprieve in the US-China tariff war and broader reciprocal tariffs. South Korea faces reinstatement of a blanket 25% levy on exports to US unless a trade deal is reached with still no meaningful progress in negotiations to date, delayed by the 3-Jun presidential election. US legal challenges on Trump tariffs added another layer of uncertainty. Geographically, weakness was driven mainly by US (8.1%) and China (8.4%) with shipments to most key markets lower except for EU. Semiconductor exports rose 21.2%, underpinned by HBM demand, though with some thoughts of tariff front-loading. Smartphones and PCs/SSDs also positive, while autos and steel among the notable decliners. Data follows notably bearish BOK economic assessment last week, slashing the 2025 GDP growth forecast and Governor Rhee signaled there may be more rate cuts than originally thought.
Asia ex PMIs stabilize in May but still show contraction, concern over tariffs:
Asia PMI readings for May showed continued contraction but with some stabilization amid trade war pause. South Korea manufacturing conditions deteriorated for fourth consecutive month as output declined, new orders slid at fastest pace since height of pandemic, exports fell, outstanding business also declined. But on positive side, optimism improved, employment rose. PMI at 47.7 from 47.5 in April. Similarly, Taiwan saw decline in new orders and output, with new export orders contracting at fastest pace in 17 months. Manufacturers remained pessimistic amid reports of client hesitancy to commit to new work. PMI index at 48.6 from April's 47.8. Indonesia saw steepest decline in new orders in almost four years to keep PMI reading below 50 for second consecutive month at 47.4. Philippines reading declined to 50.1 on lower output, new orders in sectors regarded as relatively immune from US tariffs. Vietnam's reading recovered to 49.8 from 45.6 as conditions remained broadly unchanged.
Notable Gainers:
+5.9% 4506.JP (Sumitomo Pharma): signs co-promotion agreement with Novo Nordisk Pharma for Ozempic subcutaneous injection in Japan
+3.2% 4565.JP (Nxera Pharma): to receive milestone payment from Eli Lilly in Q3 for metabolic diseases collaboration
+1.1% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): reportedly nearing deal to invest in Perplexity AI and put its search technology at the forefront of Samsung devices
Notable Decliners:
-6.5% 17.HK (New World Development): defers distributions under four perpetual securities payable in June
-5.6% 4666.JP (Park24): to postpone releasing Q2 results due to inaccuracies found in UK and other overseas businesses
Data:
Economic:
China
May official manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs consensus 49.5 and 49.0 in prior month (Saturday CST)
Non-manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs consensus 50.6 and 50.4 in prior month
Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.2 in prior month
Japan
Q1 MOF corporate survey capex +6.4% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and (0.2%) in prior quarter
Ex-software capex +6.9% y/y vs consensus +5.3% and +3.1% in prior quarter
May final manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs flash 49.0 and 48.7 in prior month
Australia
May ANZ-Indeed job advertisements +1.2% m/m vs revised (0.3%) in April
India May
Final manufacturing PMI 57.6 vs flash reading 58.3 and 58.2 in prior month
South Korea
May trade balance $6.94B vs consensus $4.61B and $4.88B in prior month
Exports (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (2.7%) and +3.7% in prior month
Imports (5.3%) y/y vs consensus (3.1%) and (2.7%) in prior mont
Markets:
Nikkei: (494.43) or (1.30%) to 37470.67
Hang Seng: (131.80) or (0.57%) to 23157.97
Shanghai Composite: Closed
Shenzhen Composite: Closed
ASX200: (20.60) or (0.24%) to 8414.10
KOSPI: 1.30 or +0.05% to 2698.97
SENSEX: (124.15) or (0.15%) to 81326.86
Currencies:
$-¥: (1.16) or (0.80%) to 142.8950
$-KRW: (11.17) or (0.81%) to 1371.8200
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.75% to 0.6480
$-INR: (0.26) or (0.30%) to 85.3217
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1988
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