Jun 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher and near the highest levels of the afternoon. Energy, Technology and Industrial goods and services led while Media, Basic Resources and Insurance lagged. Follows slightly weaker levels on Monday.
Focus still on trade tensions, though nothing incremental overnight. White House continues to talk up prospects of a Trump-Xi call this week but still no confirmation yet from China. Critical minerals appear to be the source of tensions after press reports detailed China's more assertive stance, and willingness to use rare earths exports as leverage. Latest US tech curbs and revocation of student visas among factors that reportedly prompted China's harder line on rare earths. OECD lowered global growth outlook, flagging the usual headwinds, including trade barriers and policy uncertainty.
On the political front, Netherlands' far-right leader Wilders pulled his Party for Freedom (PVV) from ruling coalition Tuesday morning, triggering collapse of PM Schoof's government after just five months in office (Telegraaf,DutchNews,Bloomberg). Crisis erupted over Wilders' hardline migration demands, including closing borders to asylum seekers, halting family reunification, and forcibly returning Syrian refugees within six months. His coalition partners- conservative VVD, centrist NSC, and farmer-focused BBB-refused to endorse his 10-point plan, with VVD leader Yesilgöz dismissing it as a public performance review of Migration Minister Faber. Eurointelligence suggested collapse reflects broader European trend of destabilized coalition politics driven by populist parties.
On the macro data front, Eurozone flash CPI softer than forecasts. Follows larger-than-expected increase in April. Comes ahead of ECB decision on Thursday with consensus for 25 bp cut. Eurozone unemployment dips. Swiss CPI at -0.1% y/y, as expected. Likely to reinforce expectation for SNB rate cut later this month.
BoE policymakers maintained cautious tone in comments to lawmakers, but confident disinflation process continuing.
M&A news dominate the headlines this morning: after few weeks of speculation, Cofinimmo (COFB.BB) and Aedifica (AED.BB) agreed to combine through an exchange offer to be launched by Aedifica at an exchange ratio of 1.185 new Aedifica shares for each Cofinimmo Share; in another deal, Dalata (DHG.ID) rejected a deal proposed by Pandox (PNDX.B.SS) and Eiendomsspar at €6.05/share all-cash offer; in France, Bpifrance's Lac1 fund disposed of a 2.9% stake In Elis (ELIS.FP)
On the reporting front, Julius Baer Group (BAER.SW) announced the results of its strategic review, also updating medium-term targets; in the UK, MJ Gleeson (GLE.LN) issued a profit warning, sending UK housebuilding shares lower at the open; British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), Chemring Group (CHG.LN) and Kier Group (KIE.LN) also posted their most recent numbers
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Oil & Gas +1.07%, Technology +0.90%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.84%, Autos & Parts +0.68%, Financial Svcs +0.48%, Travel & Leisure +0.10%
Underperformers:
Media (1.06%), Basic Resources (0.84%), Insurance (0.49%), Utilities (0.48%), Chemicals (0.45%), Health Care (0.45%), Retail (0.44%), Real Estate (0.36%), Telecom (0.33%), Food & Beverage (0.33%), Construct & Mtls (0.09%), Banks (0.06%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.03%)
Macro:
Geopolitics:
Europe mulls speeding up trade retaliation against the US (Bloomberg )
Netherlands:
Dutch government collapses after Geert Wilders' far-right party quits - Politico
Italy:
Macron to visit Meloni after rivalry creates tension on Ukraine, trade - Reuters
UK:
UK will slump to 1% growth next year as Trump tariffs bite, says OECD - Guardian
UK unveils ambitious defense overhaul with billions for nuclear deterrent, 12 new submarines and AI-driven readiness amid rising Russia threat - CNN
BoE's Mann urges caution on QT as rate cuts begin, warns policy mix could tighten financial conditions - Reuters, Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+6.8% BPOST.BB (bpost €2.02, +0.13) -- provides targets ahead of CMD
+6.7% CHG.LN (Chemring Group £5.19, +0.33) -- H1 earnings
+5.4% DHG.ID (Dalata Hotel Group €6.07, +0.31) --
Dalata Hotel Group rejects possible offer by Pandox Consortium
Pandox and Eiendomsspar confirms that it has submitted a non-binding proposal to the board of Dalata regarding a possible €6.05/share all-cash offer to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the group
+1.4% PNDX.B.SS (Pandox SEK161.80, +2.20)
+5.3% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF27.52, +1.39) -- Jefferies upgrade
+5.1% RSL2.GR (R. Stahl €20.80, +1.00) -- resolution on authorization to purchase treasury shares fails to receive required majority at AGM; FY25 outlook confirmed but seen it as ambitious
+4.4% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.64, +0.07) -- UK ministers hope to sign investors for Sizewell C nuclear project during the Anglo-French summit next month -- FT
+3.0% COFB.BB (Cofinimmo €77.40, +2.25) -- Aedifica and company announce that they have reached agreement to merge
+1.9% KIE.LN (Kier Group £1.72, +0.03) -- trading update/ capital markets event
Notable Decliners
-9.4% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.47, -0.05) -- unsuccessful Arbitration Annulment Outcome
-8.3% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.50, -0.05) -- AGM statement
-5.7% NKT.DC (NKT A/S DKK522.50, -31.50) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-3.9% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £4.89, -0.20) -- FY earnings
-3.8% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK81.20, -3.25) -- Sparebank 1 Markets downgrade
-2.3% PEBB.LN (The Pebble Group £0.43, -0.01) -- trading update
-1.7% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK60.80, -1.06) -- sector
-1.5% ELCO.LN (Eleco £1.61, -0.02) -- trading update
-1.4% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group CHF53.20, -0.78) -- results of its strategic review, updated medium-term targets
-1.3% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK14.07, -0.19) -- Norwegian State to place up to 65.6M shares in Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
-1.2% ELIS.FP (Elis €23.68, -0.28) -- Bpifrance's Lac1 fund disposes of 2.9% stake In Elis -- Reuters; acquires Bugadería Neutral in Spain
-0.9% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $43.38, -0.41) -- Jefferies downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Voestalpine (VOE.AV)
France: Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP)
UK: Paragon Banking Group (PAG.LN), discoverIE Group (DSCV.LN), Avacta Group (AVCT.LN), Ramsdens Holdings (RFX.LN), B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN)
CMD/events: Autoliv (ALIV.SS), SynAct Pharma (SYNACT.SS), Stabilus (STM.GR), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS), Elixirr International (EXIL.LN), Foxtons Group (FOXT.LN), AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone May Preliminary CPI +1.9% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and prior +2.2% Talk To Us Send To A Friend
CPI 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior +0.6%
Eurozone Apr Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 6.2% and prior revised 6.3% from 6.2%
Italy Apr Unemployment Rate 5.9% vs consensus 6.1% and prior revised 6.1% from 6.0
Switzerland May CPI (0.1%) y/y vs consensus (0.1%) and prior 0.0%
Spain May Unemployment Change (57.8K) vs consensus (68.5K) and prior (67.4K)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): +$1.22 or +1.95% to $63.74
€-$ (0.0066) or (0.58%) to 1.1377
£-$ (0.0022) or (0.16%) to 1.3522
€-£ (0.0036) to 0.8414
S&P 500 +0.43%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.51%
DAX: +21.01%
CAC: +5.19%
MIB: +17.22%
Stoxx 600: +8.04%
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