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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.26%, Hang Seng +0.70%, Shanghai Composite +0.35% as of 04:10 ET

Jun 16 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Monday. South Korea's Kospi ended with strong gains as its bull run continued while there were strong gains for Japan's Nikkei and the Hang Seng, which surged into the close. The Topix saw more modest gains with mainland China boards also higher. Taiwan's Taiex and Australia's ASX were flat. India reversed early losses to now trade higher, Southeast Asia remained mostly lower. US futures higher, Europe opened slightly higher. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields higher, CGB yields at more than a month-long low. WTI and Brent futures reversing early gains to trade sharply lower. Gold lower, industrial metals higher. Cryptocurrencies higher as bitcoin regained $107K.

    • Asia stocks trended steadily higher over the day despite a largely negative open with no substantial deterioration in the middle east conflict over the weekend or early Monday. Israel and Iran traded attacks for a third day Sunday with strikes limited to military and energy facilities in Iran, which retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities. Market concerns focused on the dangers to shipping and oil transport through the Straits of Hormuz although weekend analysis downplayed worst-case scenario potential for Iran mining the region

    • In regional developments, China economic activity data for May was mixed but mostly beat expectations. Industrial production and fixed asst investment growth slowed but by less than FactSet consensus had expected. Retail sales growth also beat estimates and unemployment unexpectedly fell. On the downside, real estate investment declines contracted further and house prices fell once again. Trade talks between Washington and Asia capitals continue but there was little substantive newsflow over the weekend beyond 'advances in negotiations' reported by Japan, Vietnam and Thailand.

    • Nippon Steel (5401.JP) received approval for its US Steel acquisition from US President Trump but its degree of control remained unclear as the 'golden share' powers remained unclear. Taiwan added SMIC (981.HK) and Huawei to its export control list of firms, meaning Taiwanese companies will need permission from Taipei to export to them. Australia's securities and investments commission said it had begun a probe into exchange operator ASX's (ASX.AU) governance and risk management processes. Santos (STO.AU) received a takeover offer from Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC and said it intends to recommend shareholders accept the offer. Thai Airways (THAI.TB) won court approval to exit a debt restructuring program, paving the way toward a resumption of trading in its stocks following a four-year suspension. Tata Motor's (500570.IN) Jaguar Land Rover unit cut its fiscal 2026 EBIT margins to 5-7% from an earlier forecast of 10%, citing uncertainty in the global auto industry.

  • Digest:

    • Israel, Iran attacks continue for third straight day and Netanyahu floats potential for regime change:

      • Tensions between Israel and Iran remained elevated with a third day of attacks on Sunday. Much of the focus has been on the damage Israel has done in Iran, with latest strikes targeting energy facilities and government buildings. Initial focus was on Iran's nuclear program, which Israel said has been set back dramatically, but still more work to be done and operation could take weeks. While Israeli military spokesman said Sunday that Israel's goal "is not a change of regime" in Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu later noted that regime change in Iran "could certainly be the result" of Israel's military campaign given that the Iran regime is "very weak" (Washington Post). The weekend attacks on energy facilities have received a lot of attention given the recent jump in oil prices, though FT pointed out that Israel seems to be focused on weakening and disrupting domestic gas and supply chains to cause shortages, rather than impacting oil and gas production or exports. In addition, still no explicit threat to close Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for ~20% of global oil and LNG flows. Some sell-side firms have estimated that Strait of Hormuz closure could drive oil to $120 a barrel. When it comes to global equities, Street has also rehashed the longstanding track record of geopolitical tensions being largely ignored. Deutsche Bank pointed out that while geopolitical shocks typically lead to a 6% drawdown in the S&P 500 over three weeks, the index rallies all the way back in another three weeks. Added equity positioning already underweight and a 6% selloff would not it to fall to bottom of its usual range.

    • China May activity data mixed, retail the main bright spot:

      • Industrial production rose 5.8% y/y in May, below consensus 6.0% and previous month's 6.1%. Breadth skewed positive by sector with 35 out of 41 logging gains, though growth areas by product were closer to a half. Solid growth came in solar cells, autos, PCs and integrated circuits, while smartphones and crude steel declined. Retail sales rose 6.4% (highest since Dec-23), notably above consensus 4.9%, following 5.1% in the prior month. Headline reflected growth in almost all major categories except for petroleum products. Demand remains underpinned by consumer goods trade-in subsidies and strong headline fit with some encouraging spending figures over the Labor Day holidays. Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% y/y YTD, compared to consensus and prior month's 4.0%, marking the softest momentum this year so far. Infrastructure decelerated to 5.6% from 8.0%, manufacturing edged down to 8.5% from 8.8%. Real estate declines deepened to 10.7% from 10.3%, posing a drag of 4.0 ppt from the headline. Housing sales continued to settle into a mildly negative trajectory following sharp improvements last year. New construction starts remained down by more than 20%. Unemployment rate was 5.0% vs consensus and prior month's 5.1%.

    • China appeared to link rare earths with US AI chips, US looking to extend China tariffs for another 90 days: :

      • Reuters, citing two sources briefed on US-China talks, discussed ongoing lack of clarity surrounding China's agreement to ease restrictions on rare earth exports, posing a threat to a more comprehensive trade deal. At the London meeting, China promised to fast-track approval of rare-earth export applications from non-military US manufacturers out of the tens of thousands currently pending. However, Beijing has not committed to allow exports of some specialized rare earth magnets used in US fighter jets and missile systems. Article recalled that Chinese negotiators in London appeared to link progress in lifting export controls on military-use rare earth magnets with the longstanding US curbs on exports of advanced AI chips to China. That marked a new twist in trade talks that began with opioid trafficking, tariff rates and China's trade surplus, but have since shifted to focus on export controls. US officials also signaled they are looking to extend existing tariffs on China for a further 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline agreed in Geneva last month, suggesting a more permanent trade deal is unlikely before then. Article noted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there would be no "quid pro quo" on easing curbs on exports of AI chips to China in exchange for access to rare earths.

    • BOJ considering halving FY26 JGB purchase tapering pace:

      • Nikkei reported BOJ has started to examine a slower pace of JGB purchase reductions in FY26 to JPY200B ($1.4B) per quarter from current JPY400B, balancing efforts to foster market-based yield formation while avoiding disruptions due to sharp volatility. MPC to debate the topic over the June 16-17 MPM and majority seen to be in favor. FY25 purchase tapering expected to remain unchanged. Article added policy rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. JPY200B tapering pace in FY26 would leave monthly purchases at about JPY2.1T from Jan-27. Story noted two competing elements in that BOJ still held 52% of outstanding JGBs as of 2024-end despite tapering having commenced in August, prompting internal calls that market share is still too high given the current gradual QT pace. Yet, superlong yields have moved up sharply from April this year, leading to growing market concerns about a deterioration in supply-demand conditions. Some have argued BOJ tapering has contributed to instability. BOJ said to respond to such market views by adjusting the tapering pace while continuing to reduce their total holdings. Report aligns with the more dovish calls out of the recent BOJ bond market hearing. Recall former executive director Maeda recently affirmed press discussions that BOJ sees monthly buying of ~JPY2T as the end-point, after which tapering will cease for the time being.

    • Trump approves Nippon-US Steel deal, degree of control remains unclear:

      • US Steel (X) and Nippon Steel (5401.JP) jointly announced President Trump approved a deal phrased as a "historic partnership" backed by a presidential executive order in which Trump determined national security risks can be adequately mitigated. Company statement added they entered a National Security Agreement with the US government that included stipulations for new investments of ~$11B by 2028 (greenfield project to be completed after 2028), as well as confirming a 'Golden Share' to be issued to the US government. According to Kyodo sources, Nippon will acquire a 100% stake in US Steel as originally planned with procedures expected to be completed Wednesday. Approval constitutes a breakthrough for Nippon, which saw US market access as crucial to its global expansion plan (Nikkei). Yet, degree of management freedom remains unclear given the Golden Share element and Trump's assertion the company will be 51% owned by Americans (Nikkei). There were also concerns about the financing burden on Nippon, where a previously pledged $14B in new investment is far more than cash on hand of $4.7B. Debt issuance would take Nippon's debt-to-equity ratio above its stated ceiling of 0.7, requiring more equity issuance that SMBC Nikko estimated would amount to a range of 5~10% in outstanding shares (Nikkei).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +12.6% 6060.HK (ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance): reports Jan-May gross written premiums CNY13.92B

      • +10.9% STO.AU (Santos): XRG Consortium submits non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire Santos for $5.76 (A$8.89) per share

      • +10.0% 002384.CH (Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing): to acquire Source Photonics for up to CNY5.94B in total

      • +5.6% 467.HK (United Energy Group): signs $100M production enhancement contract for Uzbekistan's Gazli region

      • +1.5% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): by Executive Order, Donald Trump approves partnership between U.S. Steel, Nippon Steel

      • +0.2% 981.HK (SMIC): Taiwan adds SMIC, Huawei on Entity List

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.5% 6966.JP (Mitsui High-tec): reports Q1 earnings

      • -5.4% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): substantial shareholder places 82.9M shares at HK$26.60/share through Morgan Stanley

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China May

        • Industrial production +5.8% y/y vs consensus +6.0% and +6.1% in prior month

        • Retail sales +6.4% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and +5.1% in prior month

        • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.7% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and +4.0% in prior month

        • Unemployment rate 5.0% vs consensus 5.1% and 5.1% in prior month

        • New house prices (0.2%) m/m vs 0.0% in prior month (Reuters)

      • India May

        • Provisional WPI 0.39% y/y vs consensus 0.80% and 0.85% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 477.08 or +1.26% to 38311.33

      • Hang Seng: 168.43 or +0.70% to 24060.99

      • Shanghai Composite: 11.73 or +0.35% to 3388.73

      • Shenzhen Composite: 11.87 or +0.59% to 2012.93

      • ASX200: 1.00 or +0.01% to 8548.40

      • KOSPI: 52.04 or +1.80% to 2946.66

      • SENSEX: 649.22 or +0.80% to 81767.82

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.19 or +0.13% to 144.3140

      • $-KRW: (7.43) or (0.54%) to 1358.7900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.26% to 0.6505

      • $-INR: +0.07 or +0.08% to 85.9750

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.1798

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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