Jun 16 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mostly higher with pan-European indices reversing earlier losses, closing just below session highs. Spain +1.5%, Austria +1.1%, Portugal +0.9% led outperforms whilst Finland (1.3%) and Switzerland (0.5%) led underperformers
Risk assets attempting a bounce following Friday selloff on big ramp in Middle East tensions. Israel and Iran continue delivering strikes against the other; PM Netanyahu said today Israel working toward its objective of eliminating missile and nuclear threats while Iran says it may leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (Reuters, Bloomberg). Energy remains an investor focus given worries about Iran interfering with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (see Bloomberg) and recent Israeli strikes against energy sites in Iran (Reuters, NY Times). Also thoughts Israel may have regime change in Iran as a key goal (Washington Post). But has also been a recent uptick in talk of a diplomatic solution. Trump this weekend encouraged the parties to strike a deal, saying many meetings and calls are taking place (Truth Social).
Tariffs developments also in focus. Reuters reported on the latest EU trade update via Handelsblatt, which said the EU is willing to accept US tariffs of 10% across all EU exports to avert higher duties on cars, drugs and electronics. Citing high-ranking EU negotiators, it highlighted offer would come under certain conditions and would not be billed as permanent. In return, the EU would cut tariffs on US-made vehicles and possibly change technical or legal hurdles to make it easier for US manufacturers to sell their cars in Europe.
Quiet macro calendar for Europe ahead of central policy updates from BoE, SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank later this week. The Swiss government cut its economic forecasts ahead of Thursday's SNB decision, which is expected to result in a move to zero interest rate. (Bloomberg). After the economy grew more than expected in the first quarter, the federal government trimmed forecast for 2025 GDP to +1.3% vs prior +1.4% projection.
No major developments on trade front with G7 summit underway in Canada. Focus mostly centers on Trump's bilateral meetings with world leaders though White House officials dampening expectations of breakthroughs. Other reports noted China maintaining grip on exports of some rare earths. Japan and US explored possibility of trade deal at weekend talks. US and Vietnam reportedly close to reaching framework agreement.
In corporate news, Entain (ENT.LN) posted a trading update raising BetMGM FY Net Revenue guidance. Also in the UK, Costain Group (COST.LN) released a trading update and launched a share buyback
On M&A front, Pollen Street Capital has offered to buy Metro Bank (MTRO.LN). Telefonica (TEF.SM) sold Otecel (Telefónica Ecuador) to Millicom Spain (TIGO) for $380M, Nissan will sell a portion of Renault (RNO.FP) stake and Spectris (SXS.LN) confirmed the receipt of a preliminary acquisition proposal from KKR. In management changes, Luca de Meo is leaving his job as CEO of Renault (RNO.FP) to become Kering (KER.FP) CEO. Nokia (NOKIA.FH) announced changes to Group Leadership Team.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Travel & Leisure +3.41%, Banks +1.83%, Telecom +1.16%, Construct & Mtls +1.07%, Technology +0.90%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.82%, Real Estate+0.81%, Basic Resources +0.68%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.50%, Financial Svcs +0.50%, Insurance +0.45%, Oil & Gas +0.41%, Media +0.40%
Underperformers
Health Care (1.50%), Food & Beverage (1.32%), Autos & Parts (0.44%), Retail (0.18%), Chemicals (0.14%), Utilities (0.06%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Central Banks:
ECB's Lagarde says 2% inflation target within reach - Reuters
ECB's de Guindos signals caution amid trade uncertainty and inflation risks - Reuters
Economists expet one more ECB rate cut in 2025 despite cautious signals - Bloomberg
BoE faces pressure for more rate cuts as UK economy stalls - Bloomberg
SNB poised to cut rates to zero amid deflation pressures - Bloomberg
Geopolitics:
UK:
Germany:
Economists forecast German recovery in 2025, fueled by government spending Bloomberg
Switzerland:
Economic forecast: Weaker growth expected, uncertainty remains high - release
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.8% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK7.63, +1.21) -- vididencel data presentation
+16.8% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £1.31, +0.19) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrade
+15.1% ENT.LN (Entain £8.65, +1.14) -- BetMGM update
+13.4% KER.FP (Kering €195.70, +23.04) -- Luca de Meo leaving Renault to become Kering CEO - Le Figaro
+11.9% TRMED.NO (Thor Medical NOK2.96, +0.32) -- five-year supply agreement worth $20M
+9.9% BONEX.SS (BONESUPPORT HOLDING SEK278.20, +25.00) -- initiated buy at Danske Bank
+8.8% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK728.20, +59.20) -- CEO acquires a total of 100K shares in transactions over three days (11-13-Jun)
+7.4% SHOT.SS (Scandic Hotels Group SEK80.40, +5.55) -- buy recommendation at Dagens Industri
+6.8% COST.LN (Costain Group £1.37, +0.09) -- H1 trading update
+6.2% EXA.FP (Exail Technologies €83.70, +4.90) -- €15M orders
+5.8% SXS.LN (Spectris £33.42, +1.84) -- Confirms receipt of preliminary acquisition proposal from KKR on 5-Jun-25; discloses board rejected proposal, no further proposal has been received at present
+4.8% VP.LN (Vp Plc £6.50, +0.30) -- initiated buy at Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+4.3% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.65, +0.03) -- TG01 mutant RAS cancer vaccine data presentation
+3.8% UMI.BB (Umicore €11.88, +0.44) -- Jefferies upgrade
+3.5% KURN.SW (Kuros Biosciences CHF26.84, +0.92) -- initiated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
+3.3% KIN.BB (Kinepolis Group €35.60, +1.15) -- Box Office Mojo
+3.2% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €8.66, +0.27) -- CEO does not rule out sale of majority stake in steel division; also outlines planned sequence of future spin-offs -- Welt am Sonntag
+3.0% KNOW.SS (Knowit SEK132.40, +3.80) -- new framework agreement
+2.9% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €4.62, +0.13) -- Nokia announces changes to Group Leadership Team; includes change as President of the Network Infrastructure business group
+2.4% CABK.SM (CaixaBank €7.47, +0.17) -- share buyback program starts today
+1.8% PQ.IM (Piquadro €2.31, +0.04) -- FY earnings
+1.7% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK468.00, +8.00) -- strategic cooperation with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
+1.0% ENOG.LN (Energean £8.25, +0.08) -- Berenberg downgrade
Notable Decliners
-22.9% ALZCUR.SS (AlzeCure Pharma SEK2.79, -0.83) -- rights issue to raise ~SEK48.5M
-8.3% RNO.FP (Renault €39.45, -3.59) -- CEO Luca de Meo to step down; Nissan to sell portion of Renault stake - Nikkei, citing an interview with CEO Iván Espinosa
-8.2% SQN.SW (Swissquote Group Holding CHF432.40, -38.60) -- UBS downgrade
-5.0% MNTC.SS (Mentice SEK15.30, -0.80) -- Mentice to reduce workforce by 18% for estimated annual cost savings of up to SEK25M; plans rights issue of up to 10% of the share capital
-3.5% SY1.GR (Symrise €98.16, -3.58) -- Jefferies downgrade
-2.4% BGN.IM (Banca Generali €48.74, -1.20) -- Mediobanca postpones shareholder meeting on Banca Generali
-1.7% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK56.40, -1.00) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-1.1% CLN.SW (Clariant CHF8.36, -0.09) -- Jefferies downgrade
-1.0% ITV.LN (ITV £0.83, -0.01) -- Box Office Mojo
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Colruyt Group (COLR.BB), Onward Medical (ONWD.BB), Vivoryon Therapeutics (VVY.NA)
France: MedinCell (MEDCL.FP)
Nordics: Rusta (RUSTA.SS)
Southern Europe: OVS (OVS.IM)
UK: Ashtead Group (AHT.LN), RWS Holdings (RWS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Norway May Trade Balance NOK46.1B vs consensus NOK51.5B and prior revised NOK59.4B from NOK55.9B
Switzerland May PPI (0.7%) y/y vs consensus (0.6%) and prior (0.5%)
Italy May CPI +1.6% y/y vs preliminary +1.7%; (0.1%) m/m vs preliminary 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): ($2.76) or (3.78%) to $70.22
€-$ +0.0057 or +0.49% to 1.1590
£-$ +0.0042 or +0.31% to 1.3598
€-£ +0.0014 to 0.8523
S&P 500 +1.09%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +8.65%
DAX: +19.00%
CAC: +4.86%
MIB: +16.67%
Stoxx 600: +7.73%
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