Jun 16 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly flat to lower. Last week, European equity markets posted a notable negative performance, with Stoxx 600 declining to a three-week low, down over (1.5%) as risk appetite soured following an escalation in Middle East tensions. Strikes by Israel and Iran have continued as the conflict between the two countries intensifies. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at targets across Israel. The Iranian strikes came shortly after Israel launched attacks on surface-to-surface missile sites in Iran, and killed the intelligence chief of Iran's armed forces. (BBC)
Asian equities mixed to mostly lower Monday. China activity data mixed with industrial production and fixed asst investment growth slowing by more than expected. Retail sales an unexpected bright spot with growth highest since Dec-2023, aided by consumer goods trade-in program and early month holiday spending.
The week ahead sees Eurogroup meeting, several interest rate decisions (BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, BoJ and Fed), the Paris Airshow, Germany Jun ZEW survey, France Jun business confidence, UK May CPI/RPI as well as earnings/updates from Ashtead Group (AHT.LN), Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN), and Colruyt Group (COLR.BB). Fresenius Medical Care (FME.GR) is holding a Capital Markets Day.
G7 summit underway in Canada. Canada will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. POLITICO writes that with rising tensions between Israel and Iran, peace still elusive in Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs prompting a global trade war, there is a lot to talk about and plenty to disagree on.
European macro data releases out today include Italy May final CPI, Switzerland May PPI, Norway May trade balance
Also on today's agenda: Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 9:00CET at Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit and panellist at 18:00 at event at bank's Chemnitz branch. Also, the German central bank publishes at 12noon pre-releases from monthly report and ECB Economic Bulletin pre-release at 10:00CET. ECB's Cipollone speech at 12:30CET at Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting. OPEC monthly report is due for release whilst in Switzerland, SECO publishes its latest economic forecast. Elsewhere, there is the Paris Airshow (through Sun) and meeting of EU energy ministers.
On the corporate front, focus on reports Luca de Meo is leaving Renault (RNO.FP) to become Kering CEO (KER.FP). Renault's board has initiated the process of appointing a new CEO. In M&A, Spectris (SXS.LN) confirms receipt of preliminary acquisition proposal from KKR on 5-Jun-25; discloses board rejected proposal, no further proposal has been received at present. Pollen Street Capital offers to buy Metro Bank (MTRO.LN); terms unreported, according to Sky News.
Politics/Macro/World News
Iran rejects ceasefire negotiations while under Israeli attack, official says -- Reuters
Israel-Iran war crashes on to agenda at Canada's G7 summit -- FT
SNB Is Set to Cut to Zero But Shirk From Negative Rate for Now -- Bloomberg
UK Jun house price index +0.8% y/y vs prior +1.2%; (0.3%) m/m vs prior +0.6% - Rightmove
Economists Predict Germany Will Return to Growth This Year -- Bloomberg
Top company news
M&A
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- agrees to sell Otecel S.A. (Telefónica Ecuador) to Millicom Spain, S.L. for $380M (post EU close on 13-Jun)
SXS.LN (Spectris) -- confirms receipt of preliminary acquisition proposal from KKR on 5-Jun-25; discloses board rejected proposal, no further proposal has been received at present
KKR (KKR & Co.) -- KKR signs deal to acquire Zenith Energy - Australian Financial Review
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- AI advances could result in higher-than-expected job losses at BT Group - FT
BIM.FP (bioMerieux) -- bioMérieux announces an agreement to acquire the assets of Day Zero Diagnostics, a US-based infectious disease diagnostics company
RNO.FP (Renault) -- NIssan to sell portion of Renault stake - Nikkei, citing an interview with CEO Iván Espinosa
IP.IM (Interpump Group) -- agrees to acquire 65% of Padoan based on value of ~€16M for 100% of the company
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- Pollen Street Capital offers to buy Metro Bank; terms unreported - Sky News
BGN.IM (Banca Generali) -- Mediobanca postpones shareholder meeting on Banca Generali from tomorrow to 25-Sep
ISB.IR (Íslandsbanki) -- announces that Kvika bank's board has rejected merger discussions
BURE.SS (Bure Equity) -- Bure enters into an agreement to acquire 17.0% of Silex Microsystems AB for total purchase price of SEK 917M
Blackstone in talks to buy Sunseeker Resort from Allegiant Travel Co - Bloomberg
Santos receives takeover from XRG-led consortium:
Healthcare
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- presents new results from Phase 2 RedirecTT-1 study of TALVEY-TECVAYLI combination
REGN (Regeneron) -- Regeneron, Sanofi present results from EVEREST Phase 4 trial of Dupixent at EAACI Annual Congress
SRPT (Sarepta Therapeutics) -- Sarepta provides safety update on ELEVIDYS after second patient death; conference call at 08:00 ET 16-Jun
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Follow-up: Roche announces new dosing restrictions, effective immediately, for Elevidys
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche to advance prasinezumab into Phase III development for early-stage Parkinson's disease
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- announces new results from EPCORE NHL-2 trial Arm 10 evaluating epcoritamab combined with R-ICE
DIA.IM (Diasorin) -- FDA grants clearance of 510(k) for DiaSorin's LIASON MUREX HIV assay and control
EGTX.SS (Egetis Therapeutics) -- announces exclusive distribution agreement with Er-Kim for Emcitate in Türkiye
Other
KER.FP (Kering) -- Luca de Meo leaving Renault to become Kering CEO - Le Figaro
RNO.FP (Renault) -- CEO Luca de Meo to step down effective 15-Jul to pursue new challenges outside automotive sector
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- UK commissions human rights review into $20B TotalEnergies gas development in Mozambique - FT
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- Honeywell (HON) announces settlement with DSM-Firmenich; terms not reported
WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie) -- assesses its progress toward achieving its 2030 sustainability targets
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $151.3M, (29.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Slimmed down FDA ready to review infant formula - NY Times
Key rating changes
Upgrades
MNG.LN (M&G) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- to market perform from underperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Downgrades
ISS.DC (ISS A/S) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
AV.LN (Aviva) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
AKE.FP (Arkema) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
BNR.GR (Brenntag) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
SY1.GR (Symrise) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
AED.BB (Aedifica) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SQN.SW (Swissquote Group) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
Other Actions
ELI.BB (Elia Group SA/NV) -- reinstated buy at Goldman Sachs
Data
Nikkei (0.89%) to 37834.25
Hang Seng (0.59%) to 23892.56
Shanghai Composite (0.75%) to 3377.00
S&P futures (1.0) vs prior close of 5979.3
€-$ +0.0028 or +0.24% to 1.1561
$-¥ +0.05 or +0.03% to 144.07
€-¥ +0.08 or +0.05% to 166.54
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