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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.90%, Hang Seng (1.12%), Shanghai Composite +0.04% as of 04:10 ET

Jun 18 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Wednesday. Strength was led by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Mainland China was flat to moderately higher. Hong Kong was the main laggard while Australia/NZ logged small losses. Following negative US tech leads, major regional names contrasted between strength in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan with broad losses among HK-listed China stocks. US futures recovered somewhat. Bonds were mixed with US Treasuries mildly softer in the Asia session, while JGBs and Australia bonds were firmer, contrasting with softer China bonds. Dollar index was down 0.25% and major crosses weaker. Crude oil and gold futures turned lower as markets continue to monitor Middle East developments. Bitcoin was steady.

    • Market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments with latest reports noting Trump weighing whether to participate in strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow facility buried deep underground. Trump wrapped up National Security Council meeting Tuesday after earlier calling for Iran's 'unconditional surrender.' Lot of about possible Iranian retaliation to US strikes, including potential attacks on US forces in Middle East. NY Times sources also noted Iran could mine Strait of Hormuz {which could have implications for crude exports).

    • In macro developments, Reuters Tankan showed Japan manufacturer sentiment weakened amid ongoing concerns over tariffs and soft China demand. Japan exports contracted for first time in eight months with auto and steel shipments weighed down by tariffs. Core machinery orders also down sharply. Later Wednesday Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged. SEP will get most attention, with several analysts expecting 2025 median dot to shift to one expected 25bp cut (from two in March). Chair Powell expected to reiterate uncertainties around trade policy, and that Fed is well positioned to await greater clarity before adjusting rates.

    • Nothing incremental on trade front with US-Japan talks seemingly making little progress at G7 summit. Japan PM Ishiba reiterated will prioritize national interests and that he is no rush for a deal. Earlier, Trump said Japan being too tough in trade talks and that EU had not yet offered a "fair deal." Trump repeated that at some point he will decide on tariff rates for each country where no trade deal has been signed. Added that pharma tariffs coming very soon. Treasury Secretary Bessent and other officials were staying back in Canada to work on trade matters following Trump's departure.

  • Digest:

    • Trump weighs US strikes on Iran:

      • Market remains sensitive to Middle East developments with attention having turned to whether and how US will contribute to Israel's strikes on Iran (Washington Post, Bloomberg). President Trump wrapped up National Security Council meeting on Tuesday and held a phone call with Israel PM Netanyahu, though no details have emerged so far (Axios). Iranian Supreme Leader Khamanei posted on X "the battle begins" after Trump had earlier amped up his rhetoric in calling for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and warning US knew where Khamanei was hiding. Prospect for a negotiated outcome seemed to have diminished with Trump saying his goal was not a ceasefire but a "real end" to the war. Press noting key consideration for Trump is whether to deploy B-2 bombers capable of carrying bunker buster bombs to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities buried deep underground at Fordow (Washington Post). Such an action seen inviting Iranian retaliation with NY Times sources noting Tehran could respond by mining Strait of Hormuz, which could have implications for crude exports with Strait facilitating some 20% of global oil flows. Iran and its regional allies could also launch attacks on US forces in Middle East.

    • Japan trade flows soften after Liberation Day tariff announcements:

      • Customs exports fell 1.7% y/y in May, following 2.0% growth in the previous month to mark the first decline in eight months, though was less than an expected 3.7% drop. Main drags were autos, steel and metallurgical fuel. Amid elevated attention on Trump tariff effects, regional breakdown showed an 11.1% drop in US shipments (autos down 24.7%), mitigated by a 4.9% rebound in EU. Asia growth virtually stalled to 0.4%, weakest since Sep-24, as China fell a notable 8.8%. Average FX rate showed yen notably appreciated 7.4% y/y against dollar. Imports dropped 7.7%, worse than consensus 5.9%, following a 2.2% decline in April. Crude oil, coal and nonferrous metal products were the main drivers. Imports from US fell a sharp 13.5%, leading the bilateral trade surplus down 4.7% to ¥451.7B ($3.1B). Declines in Asia/China also contributed, partly mitigated by EU growth. Aggregate nominal figures now mostly reflecting price declines while volumes continued to grow moderately. But export volumes to US fell back after a brief increase in April. Asia volumes continued steady mild growth despite ongoing China declines. BOJ real trade indices showed exports steady on the month while imports fell 0.8%. But Q2 trajectory still sees exports weaker than imports, pointing to a negative contribution to GDP from external demand.

    • BofA Asia FMS shows notable ease in pessimism:

      • BofA Asia FMS extended notable swings in investor sentiment with regional caution pulling back sharply after the US-China Geneva talks and broader 90-day tariff truce. Report noted that coordinated monetary easing also supported sentiment with ~80% of 34 major central banks cutting rates. One-year regional earnings outlook saw net 3% positive contrasting with 78% bearish in April. China prospects in particular bolstered further by the most accommodative financial conditions since early 2010. Net pessimism on economy eased to 10% from 48% last month. Japan economic outlook also shifted to net 21% bullish in June vs 26% bearish in April. Japan regained top spot as the most favored market in the region, followed by India. South Korea was the notable mover, ascending to third spot following underweight position last month, encouraged by policy reforms from the new leadership. Biggest underweights in Thailand and Indonesia. On sectors, Asia ex-Japan overweight tech and underweight energy, materials and real estate. Semiconductor optimism recovered to a one-year high. Japan banks retained top spot, followed by semis. China AI remained the standout theme. India interest spread over IT services, infrastructure and consumption.

    • Japan Reuters Tankan manufacturing optimism dwindling under tariffs, core machinery orders weak:

      • Attention on data remains on the more timely releases to gauge Trump tariff impacts. Reuters Tankan manufacturers sentiment index fell to 6 in June from 8 in the previous month, while the outlook index came in at 2. Respondents cited US tariff uncertainties and weak China demand. On machinery maker noted headwinds prompting caution towards new capex. Automakers said to be adjusting production lower due to tariffs. China rare earth export curbs also causing a scramble in the supply chain. Services sector remaining insulated for now with the sentiment index steady at 30 while outlook also softer at 24. Core machinery orders fell 9.1% m/m in April, close to expectations of a 9.5% drop, falling back from a 13.0% rise in the prior month. Weakness mostly driven by nonmanufacturers (leasing, finance & insurance) while manufacturers edged lower (autos, other transport equipment, general-purpose/production machinery). As the primary leading indicator of capex, recent orders growth points to higher actual investment in coming quarters. But latest JCER consensus looks for just 0.01% q/q growth in Q2 GDP real capex (much of the nominal momentum eroded by inflation). BOJ June MPM policy statement remained upbeat on the capex outlook based on positive trend in profits. Yet, company guidance from the recent earnings season pointed to the first earnings decline in six years with tariff and FX headwinds cited as key drags.

    • Street Takeaways: BOJ June meeting

      • Main points from the BOJ policy statement were in line with expectations. OCR was unchanged, FY25 JGB purchase reductions were kept at ¥400B per quarter, while FY26 pace was reduced to ¥200B. Rate hike calls mostly seemed to favor January as BOJ waits out uncertainties (particularly regarding tariffs and US economic growth) and an expected soft patch in domestic economic growth momentum. General views that Q3 will mark the peak of tariff effects fit with Governor Ueda's focus on data from July. Ishiba's failure to reach a trade agreement with President Trump this week was only briefly mentioned, though a deal would have given more credence to an earlier rate hike around October, which is the next most popular call after January according to consensus polls. Interpretations of the JGB tapering strategy were generally hawkish. Cited board member Tamura's dissention, advocating to maintain the tapering pace in FY26, was seen tilting the risks toward more reductions. Next interim assessment in Jun-26 prompted some views this would be a prelude to further progress in FY27. JPMorgan noted redemption schedule points to a faster decrease in total JGB holdings in FY26 over FY25 even under the stated schedule, cautioning that BOJ communication may be giving the market the wrong impression that QT will slow down.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.8% 2344.TT (Winbond Electronics): Walsin Lihwa places 19.6M new shares to Winbond Electronics at NT$19/share to raise NT$373.3M

      • +2.3% 1585.HK (Yadea Group Holdings): guides H1 net income not less than CNY1.60B vs year-ago CNY1.03B

      • +0.3% 9202.JP (ANA HOLDINGS): reportedly considering launching share buyback when ROA reaches 8%

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.2% 590.HK (Luk Fook Holdings (International)): guides FY net income (40%) y/y

      • -2.0% F34.SP (Wilmar International): confirms placement of IDR11.88B ($729M) as security deposit in regards to Indonesian Court Appeal involving subsidiaries

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • May trade balance (¥637.6B) vs consensus (¥896.5B) and revised (¥115.6B) in prior month

          • Exports (1.7%) y/y vs consensus (3.7%) and +2.0% in prior month

          • Imports (7.7%) y/y vs consensus (5.9%) and (2.2%) in prior month

        • June Reuters Tankan manufacturers sentiment index +6 vs +8 in prior month

        • April core machinery orders (9.1%) m/m vs consensus (9.5%) and +13.0% in prior month

      • New Zealand

        • Q1 Current Account (NZ$2.3B) versus (NZ$6.8B) in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 348.41 or +0.90% to 38885.15

      • Hang Seng: (269.61) or (1.12%) to 23710.69

      • Shanghai Composite: 1.40 or +0.04% to 3388.81

      • Shenzhen Composite: 0.58 or +0.03% to 2011.10

      • ASX200: (10.10) or (0.12%) to 8531.20

      • KOSPI: 21.89 or +0.74% to 2972.19

      • SENSEX: (206.22) or (0.25%) to 81377.08

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.27) or (0.18%) to 145.0200

      • $-KRW: (9.36) or (0.68%) to 1372.3100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.31% to 0.6502

      • $-INR: (0.09) or (0.10%) to 86.4139

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1842

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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