Jun 18 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower and near the worst levels of the session. UK +0.1%, Italy +0.1% and Spain +0.1% bucked the negative trend. Healthcare, autos and chemicals slumped whilst real estate and banks were the best performers. Follows weaker close on Tuesday.
Market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments with latest reports noting Trump weighing whether to participate in strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow facility buried deep underground. Trump wrapped up National Security Council meeting Tuesday after earlier calling for Iran's 'unconditional surrender.' Lot of talk about possible Iranian retaliation to US strikes, including potential attacks on US forces in Middle East. NY Times sources also noted Iran could mine Strait of Hormuz {which could have implications for crude exports).
Nothing incremental on trade front. Trump said Tuesday that the EU had had not yet offered a "fair deal." UK press said Trump could keep tariffs on UK steel unless there are specific guarantees on importing of raw materials from abroad. Reports suggest US-Japan talks saw little progress at G7. Japan PM Ishiba reiterated will prioritize national interests and in no rush for a deal. Trump repeated that at some point he will decide on tariff rates for each country where no trade deal has been signed. Added that pharma tariffs coming very soon.
Riksbank cut key rate by 25 bps to 2.00%, as expected. Probability of another rate cut later this year based on Riksbank forecast. Later Wednesday Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged. SEP will get most attention, with several analysts expecting 2025 median dot to shift to one expected 25bp cut (from two in March). Chair Powell expected to reiterate uncertainties around trade policy, and that Fed is well positioned to await greater clarity before adjusting rates.
On the macro calendar, UK headline and core CPI both eased in May. Unlikely to have much bearing on tomorrow's BoE rate announcement with steady hand widely expected. UK business group CBI cut its UK growth forecast. Final Eurozone CPI in line with flash at 1.9% y/y.
On the corporate front, Airbus (AIR.FP) raised dividend payout target to 50%, reaffirms 2025 guidance amid strong demand. Still in France, VINCI (DG.FP) reported May airport traffic figures yest. post market close whilst TP (TEP.FP) introduced 'Future Forward' Strategy; sees recurring EBITA margin at ~15.5% in 2028 post AI transformation. In the UK, AO World (AO.LN) released FY earnings and says objectives remain unchanged despite the wider macroeconomic challenges. In M&A, reports circulate that Natwest (NWG.LN) to offer Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM) €2.3B for TSB Banking Group. ME Group International (MEGP.LN) confirmed it is evaluating various strategic options to enhance shareholder value whilst Gerresheimer (GXI.GR) responded to to media reports, says KPS Capital Partners still in discussions with Warburg Pincus on potential offer
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +0.91%, Banks +0.61%, Food & Beverage +0.07%, Telecom +0.06%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.04%, Travel & Leisure +0.04%, Insurance +0.00%, Utilities (0.11%), Basic Resources (0.30%)
Underperformers:
Health Care (0.96%), Chemicals (0.87%), Autos & Parts (0.83%), Oil & Gas (0.72%), Construct & Mtls (0.61%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.56%), Technology (0.56%), Media (0.45%), Financial Svcs (0.44%), Retail (0.39%)
Peripheral markets:
Central Banks:
Sweden's Riksbank cut rates 0.25% to 2.00% as expected
Trade & Tariffs:
UK:
UK inflation eases in May: Headline CPI at 3.4% y/y versus 3.3% consensus and prior 3.5%
CBI cuts UK growth forecast amid multiple headwinds (London Times, Telegraph)
Markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+150.0% BUSER.SS (Bambuser SEK1.10, +0.66) -- Alibaba Cloud partnership
+15.1% MINEST.SS (Minesto SEK3.05, +0.40) -- loan financing
+11.8% VAC.FP (Pierre & Vacances €1.58, +0.17) -- launches review of strategic options
+10.1% ACR.NO (Axactor NOK6.56, +0.60) -- contract
+9.6% MEDCL.FP (MedinCell €16.49, +1.44) -- reports FY net income (€18.4M) vs FactSet (€24.9M) [4 est, (€28.2)-(21.6M)]
+8.8% MEGP.LN (ME Group International £2.30, +0.19) -- confirms it is evaluating various strategic options to enhance shareholder value
+7.0% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €46.02, +3.00) -- responds to media reports, says KPS Capital Partners still in discussions with Warburg Pincus on potential offer
+5.5% LU0.GR (Kistos Holdings €2.10, +0.11) -- Vår Energi (VAR.NO) confirms Balder Phase VI project sanction
+5.3% CANTA.SS (Cantargia SEK1.15, +0.06) -- signs SEK 50M financing facility agreement, extending cash runway into 2026
+4.6% SESG.FP (SES €5.46, +0.24) -- Prices EUR1 Billion Dual-tranche Notes Offering to Finance Intelsat Acquisition
+4.5% OVS.IM (OVS €3.60, +0.16) -- reports Q1 adj EBITDA €28.1M vs FactSet €27.9M [1 est]; since 1-May st, sales have further accelerated
+4.0% AYV.FP (Ayvens €9.01, +0.35) -- Holders to place 35M Ayvens shares -- market sources, citing termsheet
+3.8% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF54.50, +2.00) -- contract
+3.5% PROX.BB (Proximus €8.12, +0.27) -- new CEO
+3.2% FLO.LN (Flowtech Fluidpower £0.64, +0.02) -- contract award
+2.3% SUS.LN (S&U Plc £15.55, +0.35) -- trading update
+1.7% KNOW.SS (Knowit SEK133.00, +2.20) -- acquires consulting firm Milso; enterprise value amounts to SEK 47M
+1.6% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €163.34, +2.60) -- to present new dividend policy
+1.5% IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas €36.26, +0.52) -- acquisition
Notable Decliners
-20.6% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.17, -0.04) -- Tullow Oil sees merger with Meren Energy collapse - Sky News
-13.5% OMG.LN (Oxford Metrics £0.50, -0.08) -- earnings
-13.0% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €82.46, -12.30) -- ntroduces 'Future Forward' Strategy; sees recurring EBITA margin at ~15.5% in 2028 post AI transformation
-10.2% GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables €60.10, -6.80) -- Daruan Group Holding and senior managers sell ~1.57M Grenergy Renovables shares at €61/each; downgraded to neutral from buy at Alantra Equities
-8.7% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK0.65, -0.06) -- reports FY EPS (SEK0.95) vs FactSet (SEK1.67) [2 est, (SEK2.40)-(0.93)]
-5.3% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €5.11, -0.28) -- withdraws current year guidance; to discontinue US business; in advanced negotiations about the acquisition of majority stake in German real estate investment-manager
-5.2% PRIC.B.SS (Pricer SEK5.34, -0.29) -- issues statement regarding recent media reports regarding pilot projects between Carrefour and other providers of digital store solutions
-4.8% PZC.LN (PZ Cussons £0.75, -0.04) -- sells 50% stake in PZ Wilmar JV; narrows FY25 adj operating profit guidance due to Extended Producer Responsibility costs
-4.2% RNO.LN (Renold £0.81, -0.04) -- Buckthorn Partners LLP and One Equity Partners confirms that it does not intend to make a firm offer for Renold
-2.4% AO.LN (AO World £0.98, -0.02) -- reports FY adjusted EPS 5.7p vs FactSet 5.5p [4 est, 5.4-5.6p]
-2.4% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF25.21, -0.63) -- More than 100,000 UBS employees affected by massive theft of sensitive data, also affecting Pictet -- Le Temps
-2.3% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €31.60, -0.75) -- CEO Christian Grotholt notes contribution of his 2G shares (29.6 %) to his own asset management company
-2.1% RPI.LN (Raspberry Pi Holdings £4.48, -0.10) -- CEO/ CFO sells shares
-1.7% ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco SEK149.50, -2.55) -- completes acquisition of Kyungwon Machinery Industry Co., Ltd.
-1.7% CON.GR (Continental €74.80, -1.30) -- Mutares and Continental sign agreement on acquisition of Continental Drum Brake Location in Italy; price not disclosed
-1.5% SDY.LN (Speedy Hire £0.26, -0.00) -- earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: SkiStar (SKIS.B.SS)
UK: XPS Pensions Group (XPS.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN)
Trading Update: Borregaard (BRG.NO)
CMD/events: United Utilities Group (UU.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone May CPI +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +1.9%; 0.0% m/m vs preliminary 0.0%
Core CPI +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +2.3%
UK May CPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and prior +3.5%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +1.2%
Core +3.5% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and prior +3.8%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): ($1.11) or (1.48%) to $73.73
€-$ +0.0042 or +0.37% to 1.1523
£-$ +0.0036 or +0.27% to 1.3465
€-£ +0.0007 to 0.8556
S&P 500 +0.39%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +8.20%
DAX: +17.12%
CAC: +3.73%
MIB: +15.31%
Stoxx 600: +6.44%
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