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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.22%), Hang Seng +1.26%, Shanghai Composite (0.07%) as of 04:10 ET

Jun 20 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities mixed Friday. Not much in way of directional leads with US closed Thursday for public holiday. Sharp gains in South Korea attributed to ongoing policy optimism following the presidential election. Hong Kong also rose sharply, underpinned by banks. Japan closed lower, joining mainland China and Australia. Thailand steadied after plumbing new post-Covid lows yesterday amid this week's political turmoil. Major regional tech firmer in Japan, Korea and Hong Kong while Taiwan mostly softer. US futures remain lower as cash markets resume trade Friday. Treasuries and JGBs little changed while Aussie rates broadly lower. Dollar weakened against majors. Crude higher, continuing fluctuations amid Middle East headline volatility. Gold retreated alongside copper. Bitcoin strengthened.

    • In latest Middle East developments, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran. Extended timeline follows reports Wednesday Trump privately approved attack plans, but no final decision made. Trump's new diplomatic window due to "substantial" chance of negotiations and reports US envoy Witkoff engaging in behind-the-scenes talks with Iran's foreign minister. Crude still reactive to headline volatility, though some semblance of stabilization in recent days amid diplomacy talk.

    • On macro, Japan core inflation was slightly above expectations, keeping BOJ rate hike speculation alive. Most of the attention on another record increase in rice prices despite concerted policy efforts to alleviate pressures. China kept 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates unchanged as expected following May's reduction, though easing expectations reinforced by soft May data and more challenging outlook for H2. Japan focus on MOF meeting with primary dealers following press leaks about plans to reduce sales of superlong JGBs while raising issuance of shorter-dated securities. BOJ Governor Ueda speech repeated key message beats.

    • Regional corporate news was light. KakaoBank (323410.KS) won approval from Thailand's Finance Ministry to operate a virtual bank in a breakthrough for Korean institutions. Bloomberg sources said SoftBank (9984.JP) CEO Son is seeking collaboration with TSMC (2330.TT) on a trillion-dollar AI industrial park in Arizona. Pop Mart (9992.HK) sold off sharply after People's Daily published a commentary advocating for the need for stricter rules on blind boxes.

  • Digest:

    • Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran:

      • Addressing reporters on Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran (Bloomberg, Washington Post). Leavitt said Trump sees substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not eventuate. Extended timeline follows reports Wednesday Trump privately approved attack plans but had yet to make final decision. While recent discussions have centered on potential US strike, Reuters sources noted US envoy Witkoff engaging in behind-the-scenes talks with Iran's foreign minister Araqchi in bid find diplomatic solution. Talks included brief discussion about proposal to create regional uranium enriching consortium outside of Iran, something Tehran has rejected. However, Araqchi reportedly indicated flexibility on nuclear issue if US pressures Israel to halt strikes. Araqchi set to meet EU foreign ministers on Friday. Trump himself left door open to negotiations, though two week timeline also seen giving US more military options including callup of a second aircraft carrier that bolsters ability to respond to inevitable Iranian retaliation (NY Times). Timeline also gives Israel more time to strike air defenses around Fordow nuclear facility. CBS News sources noted Trump briefed on risks of striking Fordow but has come to view it must be destroyed.

    • China LPRs unchanged as expected:

      • LPRs were unchanged at 3.00% in 1-year and 3.50% in 5-year, matching unanimous expectations according to the Reuters poll. Follows last month's 10 bp cuts that were presaged by deposit rate cuts among major state banks. US-China framework agreement affirmed in London said to have restored optimism toward the economic outlook, reducing urgency for additional easing measures. Some recent positive China macro data drew similar takeaways. Monetary policy easing expectations for H2 diverging seemingly as a function of the extent of slowdown in economic growth. Following the latest round of activity data, economists saw Q2 momentum as the likely peak for this year supported by consumer goods trade-in subsidies as well as front-loaded exports and infrastructure investment. Earlier than usual 618 sales campaign was cited as the main reason for surprising strength in retail sales. However, all tailwinds were viewed as temporary and only bringing demand forward, auguring for negative payback later in the year. Fade in H2 projected to leave 2025 GDP growth short of the government target of around 5%. Still, monetary easing was cited as a notable backstop for investor sentiment on China according to the BofA Asia FMS that indicated perceptions financial conditions are the most accommodative since early 2010.

    • BOJ April MPM minutes show hawkish views toned down for now amid heightened uncertainties:

      • No major surprises from the minutes for the April MPM after the gist of discussions were conveyed in the Summary of Opinions. Minutes confirmed majority agreed to keep rates steady while carefully monitoring tariff developments. Underlying rationale was largely sanguine, noting the economy remains supported by very low real rates and adapting reasonably well so far in the nascent positive-rate era. The main contrast with the March MPM was the absence of caution from the hawkish camp that uncertainty alone should not preclude rate hikes. MPC concurred the basic policy normalization stance should remain as long as the outlook scenario remains on track. Some reasoned that rate hikes still warranted given negative real rates and the 2% inflation target still likely to be achieved. Corporate financial position has improved significantly. One expressed skepticism that price-wage dynamics would break down and lead underlying inflation lower. Separately, Governor Ueda in an address to a national convention of shinkin banks reiterated the BOJ's projection for inflation to moderate alongside growth momentum in the near term amid tariff effects and slower global growth, though soft patch likely to subside towards the second half of the projection period. Also reaffirmed their core rate hike stance with the caveat that uncertainties are extremely high.

    • Lack of traction in US-Asia, EU-China trade talks:

      • In trade developments, Japan's top negotiator Akazawa said he doesn't see 9-Jul reciprocal tariff deadline as end-date for trade negotiations as two sides continue talks (Bloomberg). Comes after PM Ishiba and Trump failed to make progress at G7 meeting, while Japan's auto trade surplus with US said to be another sticking point in negotiations (Bloomberg). Elsewhere, Vietnam and US held online talks though no substantive outcomes on key issues such as Chinese transshipment practices (Reuters). EU-China trade tensions continue to simmer ahead of July leaders' summit. China Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held talks with EU counterpart Sefcovic on issues such EVs, export controls and market access (Reuters). Reuters sources noted that at the summit EU leaders will press China for better access to rare earths, though EU officials downplaying expectations of major deal. Key hangups remain over replacing Europe's EV tariffs with minimum prices for China cars, as well as China anti-dumping duties on brandy and its anti-subsidy probe into pork. EU also confirmed plans to block China from participating in medical device tenders after concluding Beijing unfairly restricting EU companies (Reuters).

    • Japan inflation slightly higher than expected, though near-term outlook subdued:

      • Core CPI rose 3.7% y/y in May, compared to consensus 3.6%. Follows 3.5% in the previous month, marking the highest since Jan-23. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation was 3.3%, also above consensus 3.2%, following prior month's 3.0% and was the firmest since Jan-24. Primary driver remained non-fresh food with rice surge accelerating to 101.0% which alone added 0.38 ppt to the headline. Energy contribution edged down 0.08 ppt vs the previous month. Goods inflation slowed to 5.3% y/y from 5.6% as softer fresh vegetables (spike in cabbage fading notably) outweighed rice gains. Services edged up to 1.4% from 1.3% with private sector pricing in particular slightly firmer. While core inflation remains above the BOJ's 2% target, sentiment among economists and markets have shifted dovish since the Liberation Day tariff announcements in early April. Subsequent positive developments such as the US-China Geneva agreement and 90-day truce have only partially restored BOJ rate hike expectations and consensus now leaning toward the next move coming early next year around January. BOJ revised down FY25/26 core inflation forecasts and dot plot showed majority of board members still placed risks to the downside. JCER consensus looks for core CPI to peak in Q2 at 3.18% and steadily moderate to around half that pace in a year's time.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +14.1% 323410.KS (KakaoBank): Thai Minister of Finance approves virtual bank license

      • +3.0% 002352.CH (S.F. Holding): reports May revenue CNY25.11B vs year-ago CNY22.56B

      • +2.9% 6762.JP (TDK): acquires US-based SoftEye; terms undisclosed

      • +2.7% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son reportedly looks to work with TSMC for $1T US robotics, AI manufacturing hub

      • +0.7% 500238.IN (Whirlpool of India): Reliance Retail and Havells India reportedly to compete for Whirlpool of India stake

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.6% 9992.HK (Pop Mart International Group): Chinese state media People's Daily publishes commentary on need for stricter regulation of blind boxes

      • -2.4% 2162.HK (Keymed Biosciences): completes placement and top up subscription of 21.6M shares at HK$45.48/share

      • -0.6% 3382.JP (Seven & I Holdings): Seven Bank completes off-auction buyback of 194.0M shares for ¥50.82B; Seven and i Holdings' shareholding in Seven Bank has been reduced to 39.9% from 46.4%

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • May nationwide core CPI +3.7% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and +3.5% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.3% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and +3.0% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +3.5% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and +3.6% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (85.11) or (0.22%) to 38403.23

      • Hang Seng: 292.74 or +1.26% to 23530.48

      • Shanghai Composite: (2.21) or (0.07%) to 3359.90

      • Shenzhen Composite: (11.88) or (0.60%) to 1969.04

      • ASX200: (18.20) or (0.21%) to 8505.50

      • KOSPI: 44.10 or +1.48% to 3021.84

      • SENSEX: 882.91 or +1.09% to 82244.78

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.23 or +0.16% to 145.3600

      • $-KRW: (7.76) or (0.56%) to 1368.4600

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.35%) to 0.6486

      • $-INR: +0.10 or +0.11% to 86.6045

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.09%) to 7.1827

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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