Jun 20 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended moslty firmer. Follows downbeat performance on Thursday, which saw Stoxx 600 hit its lowest level since early May. Of note, Sweden and Finland closed today for Mid-summer Eve. Attention remains on geopolitical developments. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran.
Yesterday's central bank updates from Europe leaned dovish. SNB and Norges Bank cut rates, while BoE left policy unchanged with some dovish commentary on labor market.
On the macro calendar, UK retail sales slumped in May (2.7%) m/m, much larger than the (0.5%) drop forecast and compared with prior 1.3% increase revised from 1.2%, despite signs of stabilizing consumer confidence. Update from UK's REC suggests UK labor market stagnating. Said number of new job adverts rose by 0.3% to 726,084, though total number of active postings down 1.8% to 1.4M. Still in UK, public finances in May saw public borrowing at £17.7B versus consensus £17.1B and down from revised £20.1B in April. However, was the second-highest May borrowing since monthly records began in 1993 except for Covid pandemic period. Elsewhere, French business confidence weakens slightly 96 vs consensus 97 and prior 97. German PPI in line with estimate (1.2%) y/y, and prior (0.9%). Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence worsens to (15.3) vs consensus (15.0) and prior revised (15.1) from (15.2)
On a light corporate newsflow front, after the close last night, Eutelsat Communications (ETL.FP) announced a €1.35B capital increase of to secure the execution of its long-term strategic vision and also confirmed its FY25 outlook; in the UK, Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN) issued FY earnings, and announced a new Chair and CEO.
In M&A news, UniCredit (UCG.IM) CEO stated that his bank is likely to withdraw its offer for Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) and will remain an investor in Commerzbank (CBK.GR). Elsewhere, local press reported that Belgium and Luxembourg are acquiring ten Nasams anti-aircraft missile batteries from Kongsberg (KOG.NO) via the Netherlands, with the contract worth ~€2.5B.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Jun flash manufacturing/services PMI and Spain Apr trade balance.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
STOXX Europe 600 sectors:
Outperformers: Insurance +1.37%, Travel & Leisure +1.07%, Autos & Parts +0.77%, Real Estate +0.72%, Banks +0.63%, Construct & Mtls +0.57%, Financial Svcs +0.56%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.36%, Consumer Products and Services +0.22%, Media +0.22%,
Underperformers: Health Care (0.70%), Energy (0.56%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.28%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.05%), Chemicals (0.04%), Technology +0.03%, Telecom +0.13%, Retail +0.14%, Basic Resources +0.16%,
Macro:
EU:
UK:
Germany:
Tug-of-war over the federal budget: It won't work without cuts in benefits -- Rheinische Post
France:
Italy:
Italy to slash VAT on art to compete with EU rivals -- FT
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+29.6% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €3.65, +0.84) -- contemplates capital increase of € 1.35B, to secure the execution of its long-term strategic vision, anchored by the french state and other reference shareholders; confirms FY25 outlook
+7.2% VBK.GR (Verbio €11.34, +0.76)
+6.0% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €6.55, +0.37) -- Barclays upgrade
+3.3% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €8.82, +0.28) -- to acquire technology assets from Green Hydrogen Systems
+2.8% FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co. DKK392.40, +10.60) -- to divest its Cement business for total initial consideration of €75M; share buy-back programme of up to DKK 1.4B
+2.7% STAN.LN (Standard Chartered £11.83, +0.32) -- sector move
+2.6% PAG.LN (Paragon Banking Group £9.18, +0.24) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+2.1% SAN.SM (Banco Santander €6.94, +0.14) -- sector move
+1.9% MT.NA (ArcelorMittal €26.39, +0.50) -- terminates DRI-EAF projects in the EU
+1.7% UCG.IM (UniCredit €56.09, +0.92) -- UniCredit likely to withdraw offer for Banco BPM; to remain an investor and closely watching Commerzbank transformation -- CEO tells Repubblica
Notable Decliners
-8.5% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £37.96, -3.52) -- FY earnings; chairman to step down
-7.1% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF2.21, -0.17) -- initial request for Qualified Infectious Disease Product designation for RLF-TD011 for the treatment of epidermolysis bullosa was not granted by the US FDA
-6.3% REC.LN (Record £0.54, -0.04) -- FY earnings
-6.1% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF0.75, -0.05) -- postpones EGM
-3.0% AKRBP.NO (Aker BP NOK280.00, -8.70) -- Danske Bank downgrade
-1.8% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK280.00, -5.20) -- Vår Energi announces production from Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea is now at plateau levels
-1.7% CARR.LN (Carr's Group £1.43, -0.02) -- completes tender offer for 42.9M shares totalling approximately £70M
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings: Benelux: Prosus (PRX.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jun Flash Consumer Confidence (15.3) vs consensus (15.0) and prior revised (15.1) from (15.2)
Portugal May PPI (3.1%) y/y vs consensus (3.6%) and prior revised (2.6%) from (2.7%)
France Jun Business Survey 96.1 vs prior revised to 97 from 97
Germany May PPI (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (0.9%); (0.2%) m/m vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (0.6%)
UK May Retail Sales (1.3%) y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior +5.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): ($0.22) or (0.29%) to $74.92
€-$ +0.0027 or +0.24% to 1.1525
£-$ +0.0005 or +0.04% to 1.3474
€-£ +0.0015 to 0.8553
S&P 500 (0.11%) Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.45%
DAX: +17.31%
CAC: +2.78%
MIB: +14.86%
Stoxx 600: +5.76%
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