Jun 24 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open firmly higher amidst Asian equities strengthening Tuesday. Semis/tech seeing big gains, driving Taiwan and Korean market outperformance. Greater China, Japan and Australia also up more than 1%. S&P 500 futures extending gains afterhours after Trump announced Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Risk-on session follows Middle East de-escalation signals after Trump announced Israel and Iran agreed to 12-hour ceasefire. Follows underwhelming Iranian response to US strikes that had also been interpreted as an offramp. Two sides continuing to trade blows and still some uncertainty around prospect of return to negotiations. Latest developments driving selloff in crude, which has unwound geopolitical premium built up over past week that was thought to have reflected risk of Iran disrupting crude shipments through Strait of Hormuz.
On today's agenda, German Federal Finance Minister Klingbeil presents the draft 2025 federal budget and the key figures for the draft 2026 federal budget (press conference scheduled to take place at 10:45 CET). Also, Chancellor Merz statement to Bundestag at ~12noon CET on upcoming NATO, EU Leaders summits. NATO summit (through Wed) in Vilnius will be attended by leaders from the Nordic countries, along with Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, as well as NATO members. EU's General Affairs Council. SuomiAreena - promotes the opportunity for every Finn to participate in the debate on social, economic and political issues (through Fri). Nordic co-operation hosts numerous events at SuomiAreena. Fitch's London banking summit. Bruegel hosts event at 13:00CET title Full throttle or brake? A smart strategy for Chinese EV investments in Europe. FT hosts Hydrogen Summit.
In central banks, BOE's Bailey opening remarks at 9:00BST at Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925 conf, with Pill panellist at 16:00. Bundesbank's Mauderer panellist at 11:00CET at event hosted by Univ. Bocconi, others, the same time as Lienenkämper speech/panellist at event hosted Flosbach von Storch Stiftung. BOE's Greene speech at 10:30BST at event organised by NIESR. ECB's de Guindos Q+A and remarks at 13:15CET at XLII APIE seminar (livestream). Riksbank's Thedéen in Q+A at 13:30CET and Bunge at 14:30 about the economic situation and the latest interest rate decision on Expressen's and Swedish Savings Banks Assn stages respectively, during Almedalen Week. ECB's Lagarde remarks at 15:00CET on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her. BOE's Ramsden speech at 14:35BST, panellist along with ECB's Lane, others at 15:15 at the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum. On the political front, UK parliamentary committee topics include BOE at 15:00BST (BOE Bailey) and UK-EU reset 15:30 (with fish the main area for discussion). BOE's Cleland speech at 15:50BST at the UK Finance digital innovation summit, BOE's Breeden fireside chat 16:50. Hungary central bank interest rate decision at 14:00CET, benchmark interest rate is expected to be left unchanged at 6.5%.
Macroeconomic updates include: Germany Jun Ifo survey, Netherlands Q1 final GDP, Finland May PPI, Portugal Q1 final GDP, UK Jun industrial trends orders - CBI, Kantar's latest UK grocery market share figures.
In corporate news, Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR) reprted Q1 earnings this morning and reaffirmed FY guidance with adj. EBIT in the upper half of the projected range. In France, OVHCloud (OVH.FP) reported Q3 revenue and confirmed its guidance for 2025, whilst FDJ UNITED (FDJU.FP) announced its financial and non-financial strategy and goals for 2028 ahead of its CMD presentation today. Also due today includes Bunzl (BNZL.LN) trading update and Continental's (CON.GR) CMD/events.
In other corporate developments, yesterday after the close Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) announced that EU's CHMP adopted a positive opinion recommending Ozempic in peripheral arterial disease. Elsewhere, the FT reported that the European Commission is looking at Italy's 2024 sale of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.IM) shares, whilst a earlier Reuters reported that Monte dei Paschi di Siena received ECB approval for proposed takeover of Mediobanca (MB.IM).
Politics/Macro/World News
Israel-Iran latest: Donald Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed ceasefire - FT
ECB could still cut rates despite oil market volatility, top policymaker says - FT
Labour MPs mount major bid to block benefits changes - BBC
Nato members willingly increasing defence spending amid rising threat from Russia, says Rutte - The Guardian
UK to broaden security focus, set 5% defence spending target - Reuters
Germany: Cabinet to sign off on 2025 draft budget -- DW
French Government Under Pressure as Pension Talks Stumble -- Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
OVH.FP (OVHCloud) -- reports Q3 revenue €271.9M vs FactSet €277.3M [1 est]; confirms FY25 guidance
HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding) -- reports Q1 EBIT €161.7M ex-items vs FactSet €153.7M [1 est]; reaffirms FY guidance with adj. EBIT in the upper half of the projected range
FDJU.FP (FDJ UNITED) -- reaffirms 2025 guidance; announces its financial and non-financial strategy and goals for 2028 - CMD
Also due to report today inludes:
Earnings:
UK: Telecom Plus (TEP.LN), LBG Media (LBG.LN), Accsys Technologies (AXS.LN), Intercede Group (IGP.LN), IG Design Group (IGR.LN), Gear4music (Holdings) (G4M.LN), Carnival (CCL.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: Sthree (STEM.LN), Bunzl (BNZL.LN)
CMD/events: Continental (CON.GR)
M&A
LINK.NO (LINK Mobility Group Holding) -- to acquire SMSPortal in South Africa for up to $145M (NOK1.46B)
SKYT (Skywater Technology) -- announces regulatory approvals and anticipated closing date of Fab 25 acquisition
MB.IM (Mediobanca) -- Monte dei Paschi di Siena receives ECB approval for proposed takeover of Mediobanca - Reuters
VRLA.FP (Verallia) -- FCPE to not tender shares in the BWGI offer
ITP.FP (Interparfums) -- Holding looks to simplify organizational structure through merger absorption of SA
LLC.AU (Lendlease Group) -- Scape could be interested in Lendlease's stake in Keyton - The Australian, citing industry sources
MOL.HB (MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas) -- acquires 100% of the ordinary shares of BME Fenntartó Zrt. for HUF 50B
CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals) -- executes second deed of variation with New World Resources Limited to increase offer to A$0.055/sh
GIMB.BB (Gimv) -- sells stake in Belgian technology scale-up Itineris to Cobepa; terms undisclosed
ONEF.SS (Oneflow) -- expands to North America through a strategic partnership
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- announces EU's CHMP adopts a positive opinion recommending Ozempic in peripheral arterial disease
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- licenses rights to oral dual JAK/SYK inhibitor from Libertas Bio; deal worth up to €545M (9:00ET)
HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) -- CEO Andrew Dudum responds to Novo Nordisk collaboration termination - X post
COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals) -- will initiate clinical study on the use of GI Genius with Apple Vision Pro at Rush Univ. Medical Center
ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Dyer Timothy Mark)
Other
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- Credit Agricole Indosuez Wealth Management to acquire the Wealth Management clients of BNP Paribas Group subsidiary in Monaco; terms undisclosed
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- to supply 96 additional RER NG trainsets for the Île-de-France Mobilités RER D line
BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- EC looking at Italy's 2024 sale of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena shares - FT
BB.FP (Bic) -- CFO Chad Spooner to step down from his role effective 11-Jul to take on a new opportunity
DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co.) -- and Carlyle enter strategic partnership to invest in up to $2B of PDP energy assets
HHFA.GR (Hamburger Hafen und Logistik) -- HHLA CEO Angela Titzrath to step down at the end of the year at the latest
Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting to invest $1.6B to develop the Hope Downs 2 project
Key rating changes
Upgrades
MELE.BB (Melexis) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
to buy from neutral at BofA
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
MAP.SM (MAPFRE) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
AV.LN (Aviva) -- to outperform from neutral at Mediobanca
Downgrades
P911.GR (Porsche) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- to add from buy at Baader Helvea
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
Initiations
TATE.LN (Tate & Lyle) -- neutral at UBS
OTB.LN (On The Beach Group) -- outperform at RBC Capital Markets
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- buy at Berenberg
IMPN.SW (Implenia) -- hold at Berenberg
Others
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- transferred underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- transferred underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
HOLN.SW(Holcim) -- reinstated overweight at JPMorgan; prior rating was overweight
Data
Nikkei +1.13% to 38785.91
Hang Seng +1.96% to 24153.41
Shanghai Composite +1.01% to 3415.75
S&P futures +41.8 vs prior close of 6077.0
€-$ +0.0027 or +0.24% to 1.1606
$-¥ (0.71) or (0.48%) to 145.45
€-¥ (0.42) or (0.25%) to 168.78
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