Jun 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly higher Wednesday. Gains for Greater China boards which again closed near their day's high. Taiwan and India also higher, South Korea underperformed on disappointing MSCI decision on developed market status. Japan's Nikkei was higher but its Topix ended flat. Southeast Asia mostly higher as Singapore gained and Thailand bounced back after BoT appeared dovish in rate decision. US futures flat to lower, Europe a few points ahead at the open. US dollar flat, Asia currencies leaning stronger. Treasury yields turning mixed, JGB yields mostly lower. Crude oil bouncing back from yesterday's selloff, base metals trading down, precious metals higher.
Asia stocks closed largely higher to continue overnight momentum on Wall Street, albeit with some caution on reports the Iranian nuclear facilities remain largely in-tact while the Iran-Israel ceasefire remained precarious, but was holding. President Trump also confused oil markets for a time with an apparent hint that Iran would be permitted to ship oil to China in a climb down on sanctions enforcement. Fed Chair Powell supported US moves overnight when he said 'many paths are possible' for Fed rates amid weakening consumer confidence and despite reiteration of Fed's stance on tariff impact on inflation.
In macro developments, BOJ June Summary of Opinions showed board preference for keeping rates steady amid elevated uncertainties. Australia monthly inflation eased by more than expected to a seven-month low to reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut. The Bank of Korea warned over the risks to financial stability from housing sector debt; MSCI said it would keep South Korea in its emerging market category citing poor accessibility to data and forex markets. The PBOC unveiled financial support measures to boost consumption but details were vague. The Bank of Thailand held base rate steady at 1.75% but set a dovish tone in its accompanying statement.
Reuters reported BYD (1211.HK) has cut shifts at several factories, reducing capacity at plants by up to a third, and postponed expansion plans as it grapples with slowing sales and rising inventory. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approved Guotai Junan International's (1788.HK) application to provide cryptocurrency trading services; stock nearly triples. Li-S Energy (LIS.AU) has agreed to a collaboration and cell supply agreement with an unnamed defense technology company to test its battery performance in defense applications. Star Entertainment (SGR.AU) shareholders approved a A$300M ($195m) rescue package led by Bally's Corp and the Mathieson family that will allow the casino operator to continue as a going concern.
Digest:
Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, Iranians say they are ready for diplomacy:
Geopolitical tensions tamping down with Iran-Israel ceasefire holding. Press sources cited preliminary assessment by Defense Intelligence Agency that US strikes dealt limited damage to Iran's underground nuclear facilities and likely set back program by only few months (Bloomberg, CNN, NY Times). Sources added strikes did not completely destroy centrifuges and Iran had already moved its stockpiles of enriched uranium beforehand. US envoy Steve Witkoff later told Fox News that media reports on intelligence findings were 'preposterous', and he was adamant US strikes destroyed Iran's ability to resurrect its nuclear program. Trump also dismissed the reports. Following cessation of hostilities, some focus shifting back to prospect of negotiations after Iran's president said willing to resolve issues with US but country asserts right to atomic energy (Reuters). White House has kept in touch with Iranian officials, though maintains deal contingent on no further Iranian enrichment. IAEA head also proposed meeting with Iran's foreign minister to discuss verification of nuclear material. Agency last verified Iran's more than 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium before Israel began its campaign on 13-Jun (Bloomberg).
Japan government may cut this year's growth forecast as hit from tariffs bite:
Reuters reported Japan's government is to consider trimming this fiscal year's GDP growth forecast to below 1.0% from current 1.2% made at end of 2024 due to expected hit to global demand from US tariffs. Article cited three government sources saying government will finalize projections at end of July to consider developments on US tariffs. Bank of Japan cut full fiscal year forecast of 0.5% from 1.1% in May citing expected hit from tariffs. Japan trade negotiator Akazawa set to attend seventh round of trade negotiations with US, meet with commerce secretary Lutnick, as early as 26-Jun with focus on tariffs imposed on Japan-made autos (Reuters). But recent reports suggest talks stalled amid threat of 24% import tariff unless deal can be reached, and despite PM Ishiba last week saying country would protect trade interests, not rush deal (Bloomberg).
BOJ June Summary of Opinions shows jury remains out on tariff impacts:
Summary of Opinions for the June MPM largely indicated ongoing lack of clarity regarding tariff effects, though inferred impacts were so far limited given economic resilience. Main read-through was that uncertainties remain too high to look ahead with a sufficient degree of confidence. Uncertainties extended to inflation, though discussions were incremental, noting potential upside risk from surging rice prices and dovish leaning policy mix in Europe, US, China and other emerging economies. Remarks on monetary policy generally favored waiting out uncertainties while maintaining accommodation. One member foresaw a possible situation in which BOJ should decisively hike even when there is high uncertainty (matching Tamura's remarks today). Bulk of discussions were concentrated on the JGB purchase reduction plan. Members fundamentally supported continued tapering though were flexible about the pace amid awareness of the JGB market's nascent restoration of market functioning. Most favored a slow-and-steady approach for now with the end point still yet to be discussed. One hawkish view called for normalization as soon as possible to shore up market capacity to absorb shocks.
Cooler Australia monthly inflation reinforces market expectations of July rate cut:
July RBA rate cut expectations reinforced by cooler-than-expected Australian monthly inflation. CPI inflation eased to 2.1% y/y in May from 2.4% in April, lower than 2.3% expected and weakest print since Oct-2024. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.8%, lowest since Nov-2021. Moderation in rents, housing costs and insurance drove fall in inflation. While monthly CPI considered less reliable indicator than quarterly CPI series, swaps markets moved to price in ~90% chance of RBA rate cut in July from ~80% prior to data (Bloomberg). Deutsche Bank, RBC and CBA also added July rate cut to their forecasts following data while UBS reviewing its hold prediction for next month. CPI result adds to recent data indicating slowing economic momentum after Q1 GDP slowed by more than expected and May employment unexpectedly contracted. RBA's communications have also leaned dovish after putting more emphasis on employment side of its mandate and warning of downside risks to growth from tariffs. Sell-side terminal rate estimates have been clustered around 3.10%, implying three more rate cuts over the cycle.
Bank of Thailand keeps base rate unchanged as cabinet approves stimulus:
Bank of Thailand kept policy rate unchanged at 1.75% Wednesday, adopted dovish tone to counter uncertainties stemming from US import tariffs, risks from geopolitics, domestic political turmoil. MPC said would adjust monetary policy 'appropriately' to economic outlook, which it described as 'highly uncertain' although acknowledged limited policy space. MPC vote was six to one, dissenter looked for 25 bps cut to support groups affected by weaker economy. Bank forecast economy would expand 2.3% y/y this year, thanks in part to outperformance in Q1; 1.7% y/y in 2026, assuming 18% tariff band from US. Expects private consumption to expand at slower pace in H2, noted tourism numbers fallen. Inflation should remain at low 0.5% this year, 0.8% next. Separately, late Tuesday, Thailand's cabinet approved infrastructure, tourism stimulus projects worth THB115B ($3.5B) or 0.4 percentage points of GDP growth, according to finance ministry (BangkokPost).
Notable Gainers:
+198.4% 1788.HK (Guotai Junan International Holdings): approved to provide cryptocurrency and other virtual asset trading services
+23.7% LIS.AU (Li-S Energy): enters into formal collaboration agreement and cell supply agreement with leading defence technology company
+11.5% 1709.HK (DL Holdings Group): to set up cryptocurrency JV
+3.7% 4183.JP (Mitsui Chemicals): sells all 50% stake in JV Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui Chemicals
Notable Decliners:
-11.4% PGC.AU (Paragon Care): CEO David Collins to step down, effective 1-Jul
-5.2% DVP.AU (Develop Global): confirms A$180M institutional placement at A$4.50/share
-1.5% 6060.HK (ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance): Ant Group cuts stake
-1.2% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): to acquire ADK Holdings from BCPE Madison Holdings Cayman for KRW710.37B (¥75.00B)
Data:
Economic:
Japan
May services PPI +3.3% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and revised +3.4% in prior month
Australia
May CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and +2.4% in April
Trimmed mean CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.8% in April
New Zealand
May trade balance NZ$1.235M vs NZ$1,426M in April
Exports +9.7% y/y vs +25% in April
Imports (7.2%) y/y vs +1.8% in April
Markets:
Nikkei: 151.51 or +0.39% to 38942.07
Hang Seng: 297.60 or +1.23% to 24474.67
Shanghai Composite: 35.41 or +1.04% to 3455.97
Shenzhen Composite: 28.54 or +1.41% to 2051.86
ASX200: 3.70 or +0.04% to 8559.20
KOSPI: 4.61 or +0.15% to 3108.25
SENSEX: 710.04 or +0.87% to 82765.15
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.39 or +0.27% to 145.3110
$-KRW: +2.28 or +0.17% to 1361.3000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.03% to 0.6496
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 86.0000
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.1698
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