Jun 30 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open mostly lower Tuesday. Futures in Japan and Australia were lower. Hang Seng traded firmer though Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index fell. US contracts marginally softer after broad-based moderate gains across the major benchmarks. Tech leads were on the positive side with SOX index little changed though Big Tech mostly higher. Treasuries were firmer with yield curve flattening. Dollar index down 0.6%. Gold finished up 0.6%. Bitcoin futures up 0.4%. WTI crude settled down 0.6%.
Overnight narrative was largely upbeat after S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted new record closes with the best quarterly performance in over a year. Tariff optimism was restored after US-Canada trade talks moved back on track and supported further by signs of progress in US-EU negotiations ahead of the 9-Jul deadline. Growing Fed rate cut expectations have provided the key directional driver, partly fueled by Trump scrutiny of Powell. Next focus on Thursday's employment report; consensus forecasts pointing to a softer labor market and disappointment would bolster rate cut expectations further. Yet still a lot of questions about the global outlook, making discussions about stretched valuations relevant.
Meanwhile, Asia urgency on trades deals relatively elevated due to limited progress. Following ongoing debate over auto tariffs, Trump criticized imbalance in rice trade with Japan and indicated the administration will simply send a letter to set final terms. NEC Director Hassett signaled several agreements would be announced after US Independence Day with current priority on passing the tax bill through Congress before the holiday. White House indicated US nearing deals with India and other countries ahead of the deadline but with no specifics. South Korea resumed trade talks in earnest after the presidential election though officials uncertain whether Trump will grant an extension of the tariff pause.
On the macro calendar, main event set to be June BOJ Tankan survey which will provide the first comprehensive picture of Japanese business activity in the wake of US tariff announcements. Headline large manufacturer business conditions expected to soften for the second straight quarter though FY25 capex projections still seen solid. China Caixin manufacturing PMI predicted to show a slower contraction in June that was confirmed in yesterday's official series. South Korea exports projected to rebound in June based on strength in partial month data, though seemed to reflect front-loading ahead of the US tariff pause expiry in July.
Pre-open Company News:
010130.KS -- Korea Zinc Co. releases sustainability report
500420.IN -- Torrent Pharma +1.8%, JB Chemicals (6.4%); Strategic fit with muted/negative near-term EPS effect
506943.IN -- Follow-up: Torrent Pharmaceuticals discloses presentation in relation to acquisition of JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals; deal expected to be completed in fifteen to eighteen months
000810.KS -- Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co. releases ESG report 2025
300720.KS -- Hanil Cement releases sustainability report
021240.KS -- COWAY Co. releases sustainability report
336260.KS -- Doosan Fuel Cell releases sustainability report
010060.KS -- OCI Holdings releases sustainability report
316140.KS -- Woori Financial Group releases sustainability report
069620.KS -- Daewoong Pharmaceutical releases sustainability report
004490.KS -- SEBANG GLOBAL BATTERY releases sustainability report
On Deck:
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index NSA; consensus
08:50 JST: Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index NSA; consensus
Earnings:
Arclands (9842.JP)
South Korea:
Economic:
11:00 KST: Trade Balance NSA; consensus +$7.6B
11:00 KST: Import NSA Y/Y; consensus +4.8%
11:00 KST: Export NSA Y/Y; consensus +4.6%
Indonesia:
Economic:
11:00 SAST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +1.9%
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 25): +$13.70 or +0.41% to $3321.40
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.15) or (0.23%) to $64.96
$-¥: (0.77) or (0.53%) to 143.8850
$-KRW: (10.45) or (0.77%) to 1353.9900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.74% to 0.6577
$-INR: +0.12 or +0.14% to 85.6299
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.13%) to 7.1631
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