Jun 30 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower with pan-European indices giving up earlier gains. Portugal (1.0%), followed by Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands all down ~(0.6%) led the underperformers whilst Norway +0.8% led the outperformers.
In trade developments, Canada to rescind digital services tax after Trump threatened to pull out of trade talks on Friday. Trump said he doesn't think he'll need to extend tariff 9-Jul deadline, contrasting somewhat with Treasury Secretary Bessent. Somewhat better news on US-China trade talks after both sides confirmed details on framework agreement where China relaxes rare earth exports and US removes countermeasures. Elsewhere, Trump teased "very big" trade deal with India with Delhi officials reportedly extending their stay in Washington. US-Japan talks appear stuck over auto tariffs. Taiwan touted 'constructive progress' following recent talks with US. France confident about EU reaching deal by July deadline.
In macro updates, German retail sales much weaker than forecast, while UK final Q1 GDP unrevised in final reading at 0.7% q/q. Eurozone inflation set to edge back up to 2% after undershooting in prior month. BoE mortgage approval data surprised on the upside with May new mortgage approvals at 63.03K versus 61.0K consensus and prior 60.66K revised from 60.46K initially reported. It was the largest increase in approvals since February 2024, which indicates a healthy upturn in housing market activity. Eurozone inflation set to edge back up to 2% after undershooting in prior month. Eurozone money supply growth slightly weaker than forecast at 3.9% y/y. ECB Central Bank Forum to begin this evening.
In corporate updates, M&A news dominated. Volkswagen increased its stake Rivian; now transferring second tranche of $1B, dpa. Still in Germany, Duerr (DUE.GR) sold its Clean Technology Systems Environmental division to Stellex for €250M. In UK, local press reported that the government would allow Shell (SHEL.LN) to buy BP (BP.LN). Also, WH Smith (SMWH.LN) completed sale of UK High Street business to Modella Capital; expects gross cash proceeds of up to £40M vs previous announcement of £52M. In Italy, Banca CF+ is reportedly making an offer for Banca Sistema (BST.IM). Elsewhere, UBS (UBSG.SW) announced a $2B buyback and Ocado Group (OCDO.LN) is at risk of losing £21.7M on the collapse of Jones Food.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Retail +0.56%, Travel & Leisure +0.42%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.23%, Insurance +0.03%, Media +0.02%, Real Estate+0.01%, Technology (0.06%), Telecom (0.07%), Utilities (0.21%)
Underperformers
Chemicals (1.70%), Autos & Parts (1.17%), Basic Resources (0.89%), Construct & Mtls (0.52%), Health Care (0.51%), Financial Svcs (0.50%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.47%), Food & Beverage (0.47%), Oil & Gas (0.41%), Banks (0.34%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
France pushes for extension as EU, US race to avoid tariff hike (Bloomberg)
EU lawmakers warn Commission not to weaken digital rules in US trade talks (FT)
UK-US trade deal takes effect, cuts car tariffs but steel dispute remains (Reuters, Bloomberg)
German foreign minister pledges continued support for Ukraine in Kyiv visit (Reuters)
EU
UK
Germany
German inflation eases to 2.0% in June, defying forecasts (Reuters)
Italy
Italy's grand plan to meet NATO target: A €13.5B bridge to Sicily (Politico)
Greece
Warning over grocery hikes (ekathimerini)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.6% SALT.B.SS (SaltX Technology Holding SEK4.88, +0.77) -- strategic partnership with Holcim (HOLN.SW)
+11.8% B8FK.GR (Biofrontera AG €2.55, +0.27) -- enters binding agreement with Biofrontera Inc. to ensure the long-term continuity of its US business operations
+10.0% INDV.LN (Indivior £10.85, +0.99) -- inclusion to U.S. small-cap Russell 2000 Index
+9.8% AOM.LN (Activeops £1.40, +0.13) -- acquisition
+9.7% GFT.GR (GFT Technologies €24.80, +2.20) -- partnership
+8.9% CRTA.LN (Cirata £0.29, +0.02) -- contract renewal
+7.6% KWS.GR (KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA €62.00, +4.40) -- to sell 50% stakes in two North American JVs
+6.6% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £2.03, +0.13) -- publication of new study
+6.2% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF2.15, +0.13) -- synthetic glycan vaccine platform validated for the first time in humans
+5.8% DVYSR.SS (Devyser Diagnostics SEK128.00, +7.00) -- launches Genomic Blood Typing assay
+5.0% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.60, +0.08) -- restart of production operations at Triton FPSO underway
+4.6% LIO.LN (Liontrust Asset Management £4.18, +0.19) -- Peel Hunt upgrade
+4.6% VCP.LN (Victoria £0.71, +0.03) -- new facility; update on refinancing
+4.5% ALCOX.FP (Nicox €0.23, +0.01) -- trial update
+4.5% POLR.LN (Polar Capital Holdings £4.80, +0.21) -- earnings; CEO to retire
+4.4% TOBII.SS (Tobii SEK4.83, +0.20) -- Handelsbanken upgrade
+3.7% VK.FP (Vallourec €15.79, +0.57) -- order
+3.7% AB.FP (AB Science €1.45, +0.05) -- agrees with financial creditors to postpone by 24 months the repayment of its bank debt
+3.7% ILTY.IM (illimity Bank €3.90, +0.14) -- Banca Ifis ends the acceptance period reaching 84.092% of the share capital of illimity Bank; acceptance period re-opened
+3.5% ZAL.GR (Zalando €28.06, +0.96) -- assumed buy at Jefferies
+3.5% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.65, +0.02) -- collaboration
+3.1% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK390.85, +11.80) -- contract
+2.9% SEE.LN (Seeing Machines £0.03, -0.00) -- collaboration
+2.5% ENTRA.NO (Entra ASA NOK133.60, +3.20) -- new lease contract
+2.0% PNL.NA (PostNL €0.93, +0.02) -- concludes Dutch government's proposal for universal service obligation is insufficient for future-proof postal delivery service
+1.9% KARN.SW (Kardex Holding CHF273.50, +5.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+1.8% CTPNV.NA (CTP NV €17.90, +0.32) -- Deutsche Bank ugprade
+1.6% GFC.FP (Gecina €93.45, +1.50) -- Deutsche Bank ugprade
Notable Decliners
-68.7% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.01, -0.02) -- restructuring; management change
-10.9% BST.IM (Banca Sistema €1.75, -0.21) -- Banca CF+ to make offer for Banca Sistema; terms unreported - Bloomberg
-6.0% SAVE.LN (Savannah Energy £0.07, -0.00) -- share to be suspended until publication of audited annual results
-5.7% PRV.LN (Porvair £7.34, -0.44) -- earnings; Peel Hunt downgrade
-5.3% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €25.54, -1.43) -- announces US Supreme Court asks for views of Solicitor General in Durnell case following petition
-5.2% FORN.SW (Forbo Holding CHF823.00, -45.00) -- CFO/interim CEO steps down
-5.0% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.46, -0.02) -- Fitch Lowers Ferrexpo's Rating Over Declining Operational Liquidity
-4.1% NDX1.GR (Nordex €16.78, -0.71) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade; ? Renewables
-4.1% EMG.LN (Man Group £1.70, -0.07) -- Peel Hunt downgrade
-3.0% SMWH.LN (WH Smith £10.96, -0.34) -- completes sale of UK High Street business; expects gross cash proceeds of up to £40M vs previous announcement of £52M
-3.0% IBST.LN (Ibstock £1.47, -0.05) -- Davy downgrade
-2.5% BIOV.SW (BioVersys CHF34.80, -0.90) -- AGM update
-1.9% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.03, -0.00) -- CFO resigns
-1.5% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.61, -0.02) -- JPMorgan downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
UK: Kitwave Group (KITW.LN), Supreme (SUP.LN), Mercia Asset Management (MERC.LN), Wynnstay Group (WYN.LN
Data:
Economics:
Denmark
Q1 GDP +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +3.6%
May Unemployment Rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.6% and prior 2.5%
Germany May Retail Sales +1.6% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and prior revised +2.9% from +2.3%
Sweden May Retail Sales (1.8%) y/y vs consensus +5.1% and prior revised +4.9% from +5.3%
UK
Q1 GDP +1.3% y/y vs preliminary +1.3%
May Mortgage Approvals 63.03K vs consensus 61.0K and prior revised to 60.66K from 60.46K
May M4 Money Supply +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised to (0.1%) from 0.0%
Switzerland Jul KOF Leading Indicators 96.1 vs consensus 99.3 and prior revised 98.6 from 98.5
Italy Jun Preliminary CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior +1.6%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior (0.1%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.70) or (1.07%) to $64.82
€-$ +0.0025 or +0.21% to 1.1750
£-$ (0.0010) or (0.07%) to 1.3703
€-£ +0.0024 to 0.8574
S&P 500 +0.19%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.33%
DAX: +20.19%
CAC: +4.03%
MIB: +16.33%
Stoxx 600: +6.73%
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