Jun 30 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, extending last week's gains when the STOXX Europe 600 ended +1.32%.
Asian equities mixed Monday. Japan outperforming with Nikkei reaching 12-month high. Hang Seng retreating following China PMI beat. S&P 500 futures advancing further after US indexes capped off strong weekly gain. Crude extending declines ahead of another expected OPEC+ production hike. Bitcoin back to two-week high.
In trade developments, Canada to rescind digital services tax after Trump threatened to pull out of trade talks on Friday. Trump said he doesn't think he'll need to extend tariff 9-Jul deadline, contrasting somewhat with Treasury Secretary Bessent. Somewhat better news on US-China trade talks after both sides confirmed details on framework agreement where China relaxes rare earth exports and US removes countermeasures. Elsewhere, Trump teased "very big" trade deal with India with Delhi officials reportedly extending their stay in Washington. US-Japan talks appear stuck over auto tariffs. Taiwan touted 'constructive progress' following recent talks with US.
In central banks, ECB Forum on Central Banking (through Wed) with ECB's Lagarde opening speech in the evening. Reportedly the bank wants to present the results of a strategy review during the event.
This week's agenda also sees Jun manufacturing/services PMIs and preliminary CPIs from across the region and among the handful of expected earnings/updates are J Sainsbury (SBRY.LN), Kion Group (KGX.GR) and Sodexo (SW.FP). Of note, markets in the USA close early on Thu and are closed on Fri for Independence Day holiday.
European macro data releases out today include Germany Jun preliminary CPI, May retail sales, UK Q1 final GDP, May mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Italy Jun preliminary CPI, Sweden May retail sales, Switzerland Jun leading indicators - KOF, Eurozone May M3 money supply, Denmark Q1 final GDP, May unemployment rate, Greece May PPI, Apr retail sales, Ireland Jun preliminary HICP, May retail sales, Portugal Jun preliminary CPI
On the corporate front this morning, 1&1 AG (1U1.GR) guides FY adjusted EBITDA €545M vs prior guidance €571M and FactSet €575.0M. Volkswagen (VOW.GR) is increasing its stake in Rivian (RIVN); now transferring second tranche of $1B, according to dpa. Duerr (DUE.GR) sells Clean Technology Systems Environmental division to Stellex affiliate for net proceeds €250M. KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA (KWS.GR) to sell its 50% stakes in two North American joint ventures. UBS (UBSG.SW) announces $2B share repurchase program. BayWa (BYW6.GR) preparing to sell its Australian renewables business, according to the Australian Financial Review. Banca CF+ to make offer for Banca Sistema ((BST.IM); terms unreported - Bloomberg
Macro/politics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
1U1.GR (1&1 AG) -- guides FY adjusted EBITDA €545M vs prior guidance €571M and FactSet €575.0M [9 est, €543-641M]
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- reports Q2 currency impacts between (3.5%) and (4.5%) on sales -- Aide Memoire (
Also reporting today
Earnings:
Benelux: BioSenic (BIOS.BB)
Southern Europe: MIG Holdings (MIG.GA)
UK: Polar Capital Holdings (POLR.LN), Porvair (PRV.LN), Ricardo (RCDO.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: TT Electronics (TTG.LN)
CMD/events: Symrise (SY1.GR), Mercedes-Benz (MBG.GR) pre-close call, Deutsche Börse (DB1.GR) ISS Stoxx investor day, Pharming Group (PHARM.NA), Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX.LN)
M&A
VOW.GR (VW), RIVN (Rivian) -- Volkswagen increasing its stake Rivian; now transferring second tranche of $1B -- dpa
DUE.GR (Duerr) -- sells Clean Technology Systems Environmental division to Stellex affiliate for net proceeds €250M
KWS.GR (KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA) -- to sell its 50% stakes in two North American joint ventures
ROU.BB (Roularta Media Group) -- Koinon publishes a prospectus supplement in the context of its public takeover bid for Roularta Media Group
BP.LN (BP) -- UK government would allow Shell to buy BP - Mail on Sunday
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- receives two bids for its Argentina shale oil assets - Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- Scottish Power, Ovo Energy in early stages of exploring merger - Sky News
ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- leads CHF2M investment in Stalicla
BYW6.GR (BayWa) -- preparing to sell its Australian renewables business - Australian Financial Review
ECR.SM (Ercros) -- Ercros' chairman comments on takeover offers from Bondalti and Esseco at shareholders meeting
BST.IM (Banca Sistema) -- Banca CF+ to make offer for Banca Sistema; terms unreported - Bloomberg
Though not in exclusive talks, KKR frontrunner to buy NewDay Group - Sky News
BLC.FP (Bastide Le Confort Medical) -- sells Baywater Healthcare To Sapio Group; price undisclosed
Healthcare
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- Senator Hassan launches investigation into GSK asthma inhaler maneuvers - STAT News
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Sanofi's Riliprubart granted orphan drug designation in Japan for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy
SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum) -- Swedish Orphan announces that FDA approved Gamifant sBLA for adults and children with HLH/MAS
HIK.LN (Hikma Pharmaceuticals) -- announces $1B investment by 2030 to further expand its US manufacturing and R&D capabilities
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- Idorsia's synthetic glycan vaccine platform validated for the first time in humans
Other
UBSG.SW (UBS) -- announces $2B share repurchase program
OCDO.LN (Ocado Group) -- risks losing £21.7M on the collapse of Jones Food -- The Telegraph
LR.FP (Legrand) -- agrees to amend and extend syndicated multi-currency loan
APAM.NA (Aperam) -- releases corporate sustainability report 2024
All Subjected Banks in Federal Reserve Stress Test Pass:
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $125.7M, (18.5%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Federal Reserve releases 2025 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) for 22 banks
Follow-up: Federal Reserve releases 2025 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) for 22 banks
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Deutsche Bank upgrades CTPNV.NA, GFC.FP
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
KARN.SW (Kardex Holding) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
MONC.IM (Moncler) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
CNA.LN (Centrica) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- to sell from hold at Handelsbanken
EMG.LN (Man Group) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
ARJO.B.SS (Arjo) -- to hold from buy at Nordea
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Other Actions
ZAL.GR (Zalando) -- assumed buy at Jefferies
CRDA.LN (Croda International) -- initiated reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei +0.86% to 40498.02
Hang Seng (0.29%) to 24214.73
Shanghai Composite +0.45% to 3439.51
S&P futures +26.5 vs prior close of 6223.8
€-$ +0.0002 or +0.02% to 1.1727
$-¥ (0.57) or (0.39%) to 143.89
€-¥ (0.62) or (0.37%) to 168.75
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