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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.24%), Hang Seng 0.00%, Shanghai Composite +0.39% as of 04:10 ET

Jul 01 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Tuesday: More strong gains for South Korea and Taiwan as the technology rally continues. Modest gains for mainland China and Southeast Asia. Thailand's SET surged after news PM Shinawatra had been suspended. Australia and India flat. Japan's Nikkei and Topix ended lower after President Trump threated additional tariffs on the country. Hong Kong closed for a holiday. US futures a few points lower, Europe now lower after higher open. Dollar DXY index dipped below 97, yen notably stronger, Taiwan dollar remaining volatile. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields lower. Crude futures lower, gold higher, base metals easing back.

    • Asia equities again under the tariff spotlight as Japan stocks reacted negatively to President Trump's complaints Japan was not buying enough US rice and threats to proceed with tariffs. Trump's comments come just as its chief negotiator said agriculture would not be sacrificed in trade negotiations. South Korea's Kospi surged again on hopes revisions to the country's commercial laws that will change corporate governance rules will be approved by parliament this week. The large controlling listed entities of the chaebols notable by their outperformance: SK Inc (034730.KS), Hanwha Corp (000880.KS), KT Corp (030200.KS) and LS Corp (006260.KS) were all significantly higher.

    • Despite the Japan setback, investors remain bullish on the outcome of trade negotiations, which helped push US markets to new record highs overnight. Bets the Fed will lower rates sooner rather than later also supportive although fresh pressure on Fed Chair Powell from President Trump put the dollar under more pressure overnight. In regional developments, Thailand's Constitutional Court voted to strip PM Shinawatra from power after a leaked phone call last month with Cambodia President Hun Sen.

    • Caixin's private China PMI survey returned to expansion but South Korea and Taiwan's PMI showed manufacturing mired in contraction for another month. ASEAN PMIs showed the biggest contraction in nearly four years. South Korea exports rebounded in June. June BOJ Tankan survey showed surprising improvement in large manufacturer business conditions despite tariff overhang. Limited progress reported on trade negotiations although White House reiterated deal with India close; South Korea asked for a postponement beyond 9-Jul; Thailand negotiators said they were optimistic over an outline deal before deadline day.

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) has asked several suppliers to allow it to delay payments to free up short-term funds but insists it is not forcing suppliers to do so. Standard Chartered (2888.HK) is said to be facing a $2.7B lawsuit over its alleged role in 1MDB fraud. Xiaomi's (1810.HK) SUV buyers could face a more than year-long wait for delivery, sparking complaints from customers who had made non-refundable deposits. Hero Motorcorp's (500182.IN) autopart unit has filed for an IPO in India with the aim of raising $140M. CC Capital said it is still working on a binding offer for Australia's Insignia Financial (IFL.AU).

  • Digest:

    • BOJ Tankan large manufacturing sentiment unexpectedly improves, outlook remains cautious:

      • Headline BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions DI was 13 in June, above consensus 10, following 12 in March. Improvements were led by upstream sectors -- iron & steel and pulp & paper -- outweighing a decline in value-added processing sectors. Particular attention on autos which fell 5 pts to 8 amid the US tariff overhang. Large nonmanufacturer business conditions edged lower to 34 in June from 35 in March, matching expectations. Small firms also registered marginal declines. Aggregate all-enterprise DI was steady at 15, though outlook seen sliding ton 9 in June driven more by nonmanufacturers. Domestic and overseas supply-demand conditions mostly little changed. Inflation metrics were mixed -- large firms saw output prices easing for manufacturers but stronger for nonmanufacturers. Small firms unchanged in a sign of ongoing struggles to raise prices. Yet input price inflation broadly eased. General inflation expectations mostly steady and remains above the BOJ's 2% target. Large firm FY25 capex projection revised up to +11.5%, beating consensus +10.0%, from +3.1% in March, tracking similar progress with FY24. Yet pipeline mixed with FY25 revenue forecasts firmer, though current profits downgraded to a 4.9% drop -- broadly aligning with aggregate corporate guidance among TSE Prime Market constituents.

    • Thailand Constitutional Court strips PM Shinawatra of duties:

      • Thailand's Constitutional Court Tuesday suspended powers of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after accepting petition from 36 senators asking for her dismissal. Follows leaked conversation Shinawatra had with Cambodia President Hun Sen last month in which she blamed her own military for border clash between Thai and Cambodia troops (BangkokPost). Court said it had voted 7-2 in favor of stripping PM of duties. Shinawatra likely to stay in cabinet in short term as culture minister following reshuffle announced overnight (BangkokPost). Government to be led deputy PM Suriya in caretaker capacity until court makes final decision against Shinawatra. However, Pheu Thai Party-led government left with razor thin majority in parliament after key party left coalition in wake of phone call, also likely to face no-confidence vote in parliament (Reuters). Moves come after street protests over weekend demanded her resignation, and as popularity dropped to below 10%.

    • China Caixin manufacturing PMI shows factory activity returns to expansion in June:

      • Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4 in June, beating consensus 49.0 and improving from 48.3 in prior month. Data returned to expansionary territory after May's reading fell to lowest since Sep-2022 and indicated business conditions have improved in eight of past nine months. Higher new order inflows supported renewed rise in production, quickest since Nov-2024 and driven by reports of stronger demand conditions. Overall new orders rose amid better trade conditions and promotional activities, while new export orders dropped for third consecutive month in June. Prices remained weak with low raw material prices leading to continued drop in input costs. Output prices declined for seventh straight month and were fastest in five months amid intense competition. Employment across manufacturers dipped due to resignations and redundancies, partially leading to slight accumulation of backlogged orders. Business confidence eased and was below long-run trend. Caixin's reading appeared to diverge from NBS official report, which showed manufacturing activity contracted for third month in June, despite modest improvement from prior two months.

    • South Korea manufacturing output falls again in June but at softer pace, Taiwan declines:

      • S&PGlobal's PMI for South Korea showed factory output declining for fifth consecutive month however pace of decline slowed. Overall PMI still contractive 48.7 from 47.7 in May amid slower reductions in output, new orders. S&P said outlook appears mixed as employment and outstanding business slowing but business optimism rebounded on hopes domestic economy, geopolitical landscape will improve. Taiwan saw operating conditions deteriorating at quickest pace for 18 months amid steep declines in output, new orders, new export business all linked to client uncertainty over US tariffs. Business optimism also in decline; overall PMI at 47.2 from 48.6 in May. ASEAN region also saw further steep declines as downturn in new orders accelerated, employment fell, purchasing activity also declined. PMI reading at 48.6 from 49.2; worst level in almost four years driven by steep declines in Indonesia. Malaysia stabilized somewhat, Thailand and Philippines returned to growth.

    • South Korea exports rebound ahead of US tariff restart:

      • Customs exports rose 4.3% y/y in June, narrowly below FactSet consensus 4.6%, rebounding from a 1.3% decline in the previous month. Calendar-adjusted measure accelerated to 6.8% growth from 1.0% in May (Bloomberg). Shipments to US fell for the third straight month while China also posted back-to-back declines (Reuters). By product, tech was cited as the main bright spot, albeit semis growth decelerated to 11.6% to mark the softest in the current four-month streak. Autos rose 2.3%, as robust EV demand in Europe offset losses in US. Imports grew 3.3%, below consensus 4.8%, following a 5.3% drop in May. Surprise in imports contributed mostly to the trade surplus of $9.1B, above consensus $7.6B, following prior month's $6.9B for the largest surplus since Sep-18. Spotlight remains on exports, where strength in partial month data drew interpretations of front-loading to get ahead of the reimposition of higher US tariff rates with the temporary pause set to expire 9-Jul. Trade talks have resumed after the presidential election, but latest rhetoric indicated officials have received no assurances from the Trump administration that the tariff pause will be extended (Yonhap).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +2.2% 066570.KS (LG Electronics): LG Electronics to acquire water heating solutions provider OSO; terms undisclosed

      • +2.0% 005830.KS (DB Insurance Co.): DB Insurance Co. enters negotiations over acquisition of Fortegra - Yonhap

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -1.0% 8830.JP (Sumitomo Realty & Development): Holder Elliott's statement on AGM results; low approval rate for management reflective of investor dissatisfaction

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China June

        • Caixin manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs consensus 49.0 and 48.3 in prior month

      • Japan June

        • BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions index 13 vs consensus 10 and 12 in March

          • Large non-manufacturers business conditions index 34 vs consensus 34 and 35 in March

          • FY25 large enterprise capex projection +11.5% vs consensus 10.0% and +3.1% in March

          • Assumed FY25 USD/JPY rate 145.72 vs 147.06 in March

        • BOJ Tankan 1-year inflation expectations +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% in March

        • Final manufacturing PMI 50.1 vs flash 50.4 and 49.4 in prior month

      • South Korea June

        • Trade balance $9.1B vs FactSet consensus $7.6B and $6.9B in prior month

          • Exports +4.3% y/y vs FactSet consensus +4.6% and (1.3%) in prior month

          • Imports +3.3% y/y vs FactSet consensus +4.8% and (5.3%) in prior month

      • New Zealand May

        • May building permits m/m +10.4% versus (14.6%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (501.06) or (1.24%) to 39986.33

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: 13.32 or +0.39% to 3457.75

      • Shenzhen Composite: 4.03 or +0.19% to 2078.88

      • ASX200: (1.20) or (0.01%) to 8541.10

      • KOSPI: 17.95 or +0.58% to 3089.65

      • SENSEX: 33.26 or +0.04% to 83639.72

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (1.00) or (0.69%) to 143.0390

      • $-KRW: +0.91 or +0.07% to 1353.6700

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6585

      • $-INR: (0.19) or (0.23%) to 85.5053

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.1614

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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