Jul 01 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to higher as the new quarter and half gets underway. In Q2, major indices in the region ended mostly higher with STOXX 600 +1.39%, FTSE 100 +2.08%, DAX +7.88%, although CAC bucked the trend (1.60%) (see related StreetAccount Summary - EU Quarterly Recap).
Asia equities trading mostly in positive territory early Tuesday. South Korea and Taiwan up sharply, followed by mild gains in Australia. Mainland China opened narrowly mixed. Hong Kong closed for SAR Day. Japan lagging amid talk of technical overbought conditions and profit-taking.
Overnight narrative was largely upbeat after S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted new record closes with the best quarterly performance in over a year. Tariff optimism was restored after US-Canada trade talks moved back on track and supported further by signs of progress in US-EU negotiations ahead of the 9-Jul deadline. Growing Fed rate cut expectations have provided the key directional driver, partly fueled by Trump scrutiny of Powell. Next focus on Thursday's employment report; consensus forecasts pointing to a softer labor market and disappointment would bolster rate cut expectations further. Yet still a lot of questions about the global outlook, making discussions about stretched valuations relevant.
On today's agenda Denmark takes over the Presidency of the EU Council, following the conclusion of Poland's six month tenure. In politics, Chancellor Merz hosts Luxembourg PM Frieden in the morning, joint press conf is scheduled to follow. EU's Šefčovič participates in the High-Level EU-Turkey Dialogue and EU's Tzitzikostas participates in the Strategic Dialogue on the EU Ports Strategy as well as on the EU Maritime Strategy. In the UK, there are MP's questions on treasury (Chancellor Reeves) at 11:30BST, and government's welfare reforms legislation (Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill) faces vote, whilst committee topics include National Wealth Fund at 9:15, the work of the UK Statistics Authority 10:00, UK contribution to European Security 10:30, small business strategy 14:30 and The UK-EU reset 15:30. France, Italy and Spain Jun new car registrations are due for release.
In central banks, ECB Forum sees session/panels chaired by ECB's de Guindos at 9:40CET, Elderson 10:40 and Schnabel 12:40. At 15:30 there's a policy panel including BOE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Powell, Bank of Korea's Rhee and BoJ's Ueda. BOE's Mutton panellist at 11:50BST and Cleland keynote address at 16:35 at City Week 2025 (Mon-Wed). Olaf Sleijpen becomes the new president of Netherlands central bank; succeeds Klaas Knot. Austria central bank's Holzmann participates at 14:00CET at official opening of the new ATM in Obritzberg-Rust.
European macro data releases out today include, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland Jun manufacturing PMI with final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, Germany Jun unemployment change, UK Jun house price index - Nationwide, Eurozone Jun preliminary CPI, Switzerland May retail sales, Netherlands Jun preliminary CPI, May retail sales, Finland Jun preliminary HICP, Austria Jun unemployment rate, Portugal May unemployment.
In corporate news, Sodexo (SW.FP) reported Q3 revenue this morning slightly ahead of expectations but says it expects FY25 to land at lower end of the guidance range. In DACHs, Cosmo (COPN.SW) announced its vision through 2030, along with a bold strategic plan, during its Investor Day event in Zurich. Elsewhere yesterday after the close Umicore (UMI.BB) upgraded its guidance for H1 and now expects EBITDA to come in somewhat above €420M. Also due to update investors today includes: J Sainsbury (SBRY.LN), Tate & Lyle (TATE.LN), Rational (RAA.GR), Vonovia (VNA.GR)
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France
SW.FP (Sodexo) -- reports Q3 revenue €6.12B vs StreetAccount €6.07B; FY25 expected to land at lower end of the guidance range
POXEL.FP (Poxel) -- announces postponement of its Annual General Meeting and provides corporate update
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- delays publishing annual accounts, will publish by 7-Jul at the latest
Benelux
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- upgrades guidance: now expects H1 Group adjusted EBITDA to come in somewhat above €420M
DACHs
GF.SW (Georg Fischer) -- completes divestiture of GF Machining Solutions to United Grinding Group
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- congatec becomes 96% shareholder in Kontron subsidiary JUMPtec GmbH
HTG.GR (HomeToGo) -- adjusts FY25 financial guidance due to delay in closing of previously announced Interhome acquisition
COPN.SW (Cosmo) -- sees €480M in recurring revenues and 40% EBITDA margin by 2030 -- CMD
Nordics
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- and Oncoinvent announce proposed merger and fully underwritten rights issue
SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig) -- Q2 trading update: 117 homes sold for gross total of NOK 771M vs year-ago 235 homes worth NOK 1.57B
Also due to report earnings today includes:
Earnings:
UK: Kitwave Group (KITW.LN), Supreme (SUP.LN), Mercia Asset Management (MERC.LN), Wynnstay Group (WYN.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: J Sainsbury (SBRY.LN)
CMD/events: Tate & Lyle (TATE.LN), Rational (RAA.GR), Vonovia (VNA.GR)
M&A
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- and Oncoinvent announce proposed merger and fully underwritten rights issue
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's decision on the takeover bid for Sabadell
MB.IM (Mediobanca) -- Banca Mediolanum and Mediolanum Vita complete sale of 29.1M shares of Mediobanca S.p.A. at €18.85/each
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- sells Haverhill site to Particle Dynamics as part of its FOCUS-27 transformation plan; terms undisclosed
GF.SW (Georg Fischer) -- completes divestiture of GF Machining Solutions to United Grinding Group
MYCR.SS (Mycronic) -- Mycronic's Pattern Generators to acquire Cowin DST; terms undisclosed
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- congatec becomes 96% shareholder in Kontron subsidiary JUMPtec GmbH
FCT.IM (Fincantieri) -- completes the payment of the variable component of the acquisition price of UAS
THEP.FP (Thermador Groupe) -- completes acquisition of 100% of the shares of C2AI
EWIND.NO (Edda Wind) -- Final results of the Mandatory Offer to acquire all outstanding shares in Edda Wind ASA
GPI.IM (GPI SpA) -- completes acquisition by securing the final 35% of Tesi Elettronica e Sistemi Informativi
CPHN.SW (CPH Group AG) -- subsidiary Zeochem to acquire all substantial assets of SiliCycle; terms not disclosed
MIKN.SW (Mikron Holding) -- Decision of the takeover board in connection with a restructuring of Ammann Group Holding AG
CLA.FP (Claranova) -- PlanetArt division sale to GA Credit and management completed
EQS.FP (Equasens Group) -- completes acquisition of Novaprove
Donald Trump's "group of very wealthy people" to buy TikTok is same consortium as before - Bloomberg (15:51 ET)
Healthcare
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- announced that Thomas Dittrich, CFO, will be leaving the company
YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding) -- Globally first dual GCG/GLP-1 receptor agonist for the treatment of obesity launched in an Ypsomed autoinjector in China
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- Follow-up: BerGenBio announces additional details of ~NOK 130M rights issue through ABG Sundal Collier and DNB Carnegie
Other
ENI.IM (Eni) -- Azimut and Eni Next sign collaboration agreement in the asset management and energy sectors to accelerate energy tech
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- to execute buyback tranche of up to 20M shares with volume of up to € 600M from 1-Jul-25 until 30-Nov-25, latest
RNO.FP (Renault) -- Evolution of the accounting treatment of Renault Group's stake in Nissan
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- British Airways signs multi-year SAF supply agreement with EcoCeres
ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank) -- completes acquisition of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe in Germany
SECU.B.SS (Securitas) -- signs new revolving credit facility agreement and new loan agreement
INPST.NA (InPost) -- AI Prime & Cy S.C.A. announces the launch of an accelerated placing of 17.5M ordinary shares in InPost S.A. through an accelerated bookbuilding process
Key rating changes
Upgrades
TOM.NO (Tomra Systems) -- to neutral from sell at Sparebank 1 Markets
Downgrades
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
Initiations
1INN.GR (innoscripta) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei (1.01%) to 40077.80
Hang Seng +0.00% to 24072.28
Shanghai Composite +0.29% to 3454.28
S&P futures (10.8) vs prior close of 6253.8
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.04%) to 1.1784
$-¥ (0.41) or (0.29%) to 143.62
€-¥ (0.55) or (0.32%) to 169.23
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