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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asia Weekly Recap: Hang Seng -1.5%, CSI 300 =1.7%, Nikkei 225 -1.0%

Jul 04 ,2025

  • Overview:

    • Asia equities fell on aggregate over the week but trading was within a narrow band as investors booked profits from H1, and turned cautious ahead of next week's tariff negotiation deadline. Hong Kong stocks underperformed noticeably after the US's Vietnam trade deal included a 40% tariff on transshipments from China, signaling Washington still intended to squeeze Chinese exports. Meanwhile, mainland China benchmarks continued their slow grind higher. By the close in Hong Kong, the MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index was 0.6% lower; Japan's Nikkei was 1.0% down and its Topix was 0.6% lower (in USD terms). Australia's ASX outperformed as its technology stocks tailgated the gains on the Nasdaq and Asia tech stocks, while South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex boards also saw solid gains particularly in the first half of the week before pausing for profit taking. Thailand's SET bounced back from last week's losses while the rest of Southeast Asia gained a little. India's Sensex and Nifty 50 benchmarks dipped a little as regional sentiment soured.

    • In regional developments, trade negotiations with the US appear to have stalled just as President Trump said he would not agree to another delay to next week's deadline. Washington said a deal with Vietnam had been agreed although Hanoi said details had not yet been finalized. India's long-discussed deal appears near, but negotiations with Japan and South Korea have stuttered while talks with other nations are lagging. Regional PMI readings showed continued contraction in manufacturing although there was some hope for China as its new orders component expanded, and India's manufacturing grew again. Thailand's PM Shinawatra was stripped of her powers by the Constitutional Court but the opposition bloc said they would refrain from a no-confidence vote for now. Bank of Korea governor Rhee said tariffs were a bigger risk to the country's economy than inflation. A BOJ board member said rate hikes should resume once the impact of tariffs has been assessed.

    • Asia Bond markets saw yields dip slightly against US Treasury yields that tilted higher post the US's strong jobs report. JGBs were rangebound but ended a smidge higher with a 30Y JGB auction getting away smoothly. Australia sovereign yields dipped to two-month lows after retail sales growth disappointed to bring a RBA rate cut closer. Other notable movers were Taiwan sovereign yields that hit a 15-month low and Malaysia yields that hit a fresh three-year lows. CGBs yields fell as PMIs beat on the upside and after Beijing announced a trade agreement with the US late last week. IGBs were quiet. Currencies were very quiet despite the US dollar sinking to fresh three-year lows with only the AUD rally of any note. The yen and yuan both flatlined while the Taiwan dollar appreciated again.

  • Catalysts:

    • Trade negotiations between the US and Asia nations inched along but with no sign of a comprehensive deal in sight. An agreement with Vietnam will see its exports to the US hit with a 20% tariff and transshipments will see a 40% tariff. This compares with a 46% rate announced in early April but analysts noted the lack of clarity on specific product groups (Reuters, FT). US and India negotiators still hoped for a deal ahead of the 9-Jul deadline but disagreements over agriculture market access mean an interim agreement is more likely (Reuters). Japan's negotiations appear stalled with agriculture and autos proving sticking points. South Korea President Lee asked for another 90-day reprieve without response while its trade minister was due in Washington this weekend. Taiwan said only it had made 'constructive progress' without elaborating and Thailand officials said they were hopeful of a deal before deadline day, again without providing details.

    • S&PGlobal PMIs showed Asia manufacturing output fell again in June in most nations outside China. South Korea's factory output declined for a fifth consecutive month although the pace of decline slowed and business optimism rebounded on hopes the domestic economy and geopolitical landscape will improve. Taiwan saw operating conditions deteriorate at the quickest pace for 18 months amid steep declines in output and new export orders, all of which was linked to client uncertainty over US tariffs. Business optimism also declined. The ASEAN region also saw renewed accelerated declines, especially in Indonesia although Singapore returned to growth. China's manufacturing remained in mild contraction however the new orders sub-component expanded; also notable were readings from large firms that outperformed those in smaller ones. The private China Caixin PMI also returned to expansion following May's contraction.

    • Thailand's Constitutional Court stripped PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra of her duties, plunging the country into yet another political crisis. The court accepted a petition from 36 senators who asked the court to investigate the PM following her call with Cambodia President Hun Sen in which she appeared to blame her own military for a recent border clash between the two countries (BangkokPost). Shinawatra retained her cabinet post thanks to a last-minute reshuffle which saw her appointed culture minister but the withdrawal of a key coalition partner from government left her Pheu Thai party with a razor thin majority in parliament. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc gave the government some reprieve after it said it would pause on its drive for a no confidence vote as it waited for the Constitutional Court to make a final decision.

  • Week Ahead:

    • China loan data (unscheduled). Japan real wages (Mon). RBA rate decision at which it is widely expected to cut rates, Australia business confidence; Taiwan inflation and trade data (Tue). RBNZ and Malaysia central bank rate decisions, China CPI and PPI (Wed); Bank of Korea rate decision, expected to trim rates after flagging dovish stance (Thu). Malaysia May industrial production (Fri).

  • Corporate Developments:

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) asked several suppliers to allow it to delay payments to free up short-term funds; recalled nearly half a million vehicles in the US citing engine failure. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) said it will delay its EV plans and boost production of gas-fueled SUVs. Softbank's (9984.JP) deal to buy Ampere will face a more in-depth review by the FTC. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) is to raise $5.6B in subordinated loans to fund its acquisition of US Steel. Standard Chartered (2888.HK) is facing a $2.7B lawsuit over its alleged role in the 1MDB fraud. Xiaomi's (1810.HK) SUV buyers could face a more than year-long wait for delivery, sparking complaints from customers who had made non-refundable deposits. Adani Ports & SEZ (532921.IN) is to raise around INR30B ($451M) through local-currency long-dated bonds in the coming months. Qantas (QAN.AU) admitted 6M customer accounts had been targeted in a 'significant' cyberattack.

  • Country Equity Performance:

    • Equity markets: MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan -0.6%; Japan Nikkei -1.0%, Topix -0.6%; Greater China: CSI 300 +1.7%, Shenzhen +1.4%, Hang Seng -1.5%; Australia ASX 200 +1.6%; New Zealand NZX50 +1.5%; South Korea Kospi -0.3%; Taiwan Taiex +0.2%; Singapore STI +1.2%; Malaysia KLCI +1.5%; Thailand SET +4.0%; Indonesia JSX -0.5%, Philippines PSI +0.4%; India Sensex -0.9%, Nifty50 -0.9%.

    • In USD as of 4.15pm HK/SG time 4 July 2025

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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