Jul 07 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Tuesday trade with tariffs dominating narrative. Futures siganling opening declines in Japan and Australia, and flat start in Hong Kong. S&P 500 futures extending declines afterhours. Australian bonds weakening, tracking earlier Treasury curve bear steepening. Dollar easing from overnight highs. Crude little changed after recouping initial post-OPEC+ declines. Gold steady. Bitcoin unchanged.
Trump announced 25% tariffs on South Korea, Japan and Malaysia while hitting smaller Asian nations such as Thailand (36%) with higher levies. Trump extended tariff deadline to 1-Aug, leaving open potential for trade agreements. White House said close to finalizing several trade deals (Bessent expects several announcements in next 48 hours). Trump's letter to Japan also left open tariff adjustment if Tokyo removes tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. Status of potential India deal remains unknown though Trump has talked up prospects of agreement.
RBA expected to reduce cash rate by 25 bp to 3.60%. July rate cut odds firmed on slowing economic momentum and continued disinflation. RBA had already conveyed dovish bias in May amid downside risks from adverse tariff scenario and slower pickup in household consumption. Outlier views see case for hold based on reduced global uncertainty, dual-sided inflation risks and still-tight labor market. At post-meeting press conference Governor Bullock expected to reiterate future policy moves conditional on domestic and global macro factors.
Pre-open Company News:
002938.CH -- Avary Holding (Shenzhen) reports June consolidated revenue CNY2.89B, +36.4% y/y
8153.JP -- MOS FOOD SERVICES reports June MOS BURGER same-store sales +8.9% y/y
6274.TT -- Taiwan Union Technology reports June revenue NT$2.37B, +22.2% y/y
2884.TT -- E.SUN Financial Holding reports June PBT NT$3.14B; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was NT$2.63B
533274.IN -- Prestige Estates Projects acquires 49% stake in Prestige Notting Hill Investments and 49% stake in Prestige AAA Investments
General Insurance Council reports provisional June non-life gross premium INR234.23B vs year-ago INR222.73B
603893.CH -- Rockchip Electronics guides H1 net income attributable CNY520.0-540.0M vs year-ago CNY182.8M
2801.TT -- Chang Hwa Commercial Bank reports June PBT NT$2.29B, StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was NT$1.51B
600004.CH -- Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport reports June air traffic 43,787 flights, +9.6% y/y
3301.HK -- Ronshine China Holdings reports June contracted sales CNY250.6M; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY543.5M
1996.HK -- Redsun Properties Group reports June contracted sales CNY400M; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY711M
000729.CH -- Beijing Yanjing Brewery guides H1 net income attributable CNY1.06-1.14B vs year-ago CNY758.2M
532209.IN -- Jammu & Kashmir Bank reports provisional gross advances as at 30-Jun INR1.040T vs quarter-ago INR1.070T
002385.CH -- Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group reports June pig sales volume 666K vs year-ago 358K
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: New Yuan Loans; consensus
08:00 CST: M2 NSA Y/Y; consensus +8.2%
08:00 CST: Loan Growth Y/Y; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Bank Loans NSA Y/Y; consensus
Earnings:
Welcia Holdings (3141.JP), Life Corp. (8194.JP), Yoshinoya Holdings (9861.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: NAB Business Confidence; consensus
14:30 AEST: RBA Official Cash Rate; consensus +3.60%
Taiwan:
Economic:
16:00 TST: Export NSA Y/Y; consensus +27.1%
16:00 TST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +1.5%
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 25): +$3.00 or +0.09% to $3345.80
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.13) or (0.19%) to $67.80
$-¥: +1.05 or +0.73% to 145.9790
$-KRW: +11.12 or +0.82% to 1374.6400
A$-$: (0.01) or (1.10%) to 0.6499
$-INR: +0.48 or +0.57% to 85.8921
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.07% to 7.1739
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