Jul 07 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed with pan-European indices closing just below best levels. Germany +1.2% followed by Italy and Spain both up ~ +0.7% led outperformers. Denmark (1.1%), Portugal (0.8%) and Finland (0.5%) led underperformers.
Attention on trade ahead of 9-Jul deadline. President Trump said will begin sending out tariff letters and/or announcing trade deals from midday 7-Jul, earlier repeating US would be setting 'take it or leave it' terms. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned tariffs to revert to 'Liberation Day'/steeper levels though also signaled some leeway with levies taking effect 1- Aug. Said focus is on 18 major partners and several big agreements are close. EU still weighing up whether to accept a provisional trade deal that would maintain 10% on most exports. In addition to baseline tariff, conversations would continue on providing relief to specific sectors, such as cars. Talks said to be progressing. Meanwhile, latest reports suggest US difficulties reaching agreement with Japan, South Korea and India.
On macro data front, Eurozone ZEW investor sentiment better than expected in July update. German industrial production beat expectations and another UK house price update pointed to slowdown after tax changes. Meanwhile, survey showed UK firms' appetite to hire at 13-year low, though UK has jumped in the ranks of best investment destination. More downbeat narrative surrounding UK government's pro-business policies. Weekend press discussed likely tax rises after Chancellor Reeves said there are costs to recent welfare reform U-turn.
In other news, Trump threatened additional 10% tariffs on countries that align with BRICS. China-EU trade tensions continue to simmer after Beijing imposed anti-dumping duties on European brandy while moving to block EU companies from participating in medical device procurement tenders. Trump sounded positive on prospects for TikTok deal with China talks beginning Monday or Tuesday.
In corporate news, Capgemini (CAP.FP) agreed to acquire WNS (Holdings) for $3.3B in cash. Company also updated on Q2 and H2 performance. Shell (SHEL.LN) issued disappointed Q2 update note ahead of results on 31-Jul. Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN) posted sequential fall of 40.4% in Q2 iron ore production, hurt by suspension of VAT refunds. Out of the Nordics, Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS) reported 26th consecutive month of robust organic sales growth, with Jun sales up 10% y/y in local currency.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +1.32%, Banks +1.28%, Financial Svcs +1.23%, Travel & Leisure +1.10%, Insurance +1.09%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.01%, Construct & Mtls +0.79%, Media +0.63%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.55%
Underperformers
Oil & Gas (1.26%), Utilities (0.84%), Health Care (0.77%), Food & Beverage (0.74%), Real Estate(0.37%), Chemicals (0.24%), Basic Resources (0.20%), Telecom (0.05%), Autos & Parts +0.18%, Retail +0.30%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Geopolitics
EU faces Trump's tariff hike as trade deal hopes fade - Reuters, AP, Guardian, ABC
Trump escalates trade war with 17% tariff threat on EU food - FT
EU plans critical mineral stockpiles to bolster resilience - FT
China restricts EU medical device imports amid trade tensions - link
France pushes EU to bolster tariffs against Chinese imports - Bloomberg
EU sticks to Trump's 9 July tariff deadline despite US extension hints - Euractiv
Trump Sets 1-Aug Tariff Start Ahead of Wednesday Deadline - Bloomberg
UK
British firms pivot from US investment as tariffs loom - Reuters
Starmer's Labour struggles as Reform UK gains in polls - London Times
Reeves urged to raise taxes to fund Labour's growth plans - Independent
Forcing pensions into British assets like 'capital controls', says Lloyds boss - FT
Wealthy Britons exit UK over Labour's tax crackdown - FT
UK hospitality reels as tax hikes trigger job losses - London Times
Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) - a joint initiative between the UK, Japan and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter jet, opens HQ in UK - release; Italy, Japan, UK defence ministers reaffirm commitment to the program - release; joint statement
France
Macron's gamble: Will France see another snap election? - Politico
Germany
Ireland
Q2 national asking prices +7% y/y; Improvement in home completions is likely in 2025 - MyHome Property Report
Donohoe set for re-election as EuroGroup President - RTE; Irish Times
Ireland central bank's Makhlouf remarks at Les Rencontres Économiques over the weekend - release
Greece
Greece is bridging its investment gap, Bank of Greece Governor Stournaras says - ekathimerini
Norway
Now prudent to start phasing out the 2G network says National Communications Authority (Nkom) - release
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+9.6% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK3.67, +0.32)
+4.7% CAMX.SS (Camurus SEK675.50, +30.50) -- DNB Carnegie upgrade
+3.9% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK15.18, +0.57) -- ABG Sundal Collier upgrade
+2.1% PINE.LN (Pinewood Technologies Group £4.67, +0.09) -- acquires customer contracts for £2.5M
Notable Decliners
-13.4% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.21, -0.03) -- raises $16.25M by way of a conditional placing and subscriptions of new Ordinary Shares
-11.0% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK60.08, -7.46)
-8.7% RECSI.NO (REC Silicon NOK2.14, -0.20) -- board update on Hanwha Offer
-6.0% ATRLJ.B.SS (Atrium Ljungberg SEK32.91, -2.09) -- Handelsbanken downgrade; Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.7% CURY.LN (Currys £1.17, -0.07) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
-5.4% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK148.60, -8.40) -- prelim. Q2 revenue
-5.1% CAP.FP (Capgemini €137.80, -7.35) -- acquires WNS for $3.3B; updates on Q2 and H2 performance
-4.5% METSB.FH (Metsa Board €3.11, -0.15) -- prelim. Q2 earnings
-2.8% DORO.SS (Doro SEK36.15, -1.05) -- CEO replaced
-2.1% KRN.GR (Krones €137.40, -3.00) -- Oddo downgrade
-1.7% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.43, -0.15) -- BofA downgrade
-1.5% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.48, -0.01) -- Q2 production report
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: Industrivarden (INDU.A.SS), Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), ABG Sundal Collier Holding (ABG.NO), Admicom (ADMCM.FH)
UK: Optima Health (OPT.LN), Begbies Traynor Group (BEG.LN), Celebrus Technologies (CLBS.LN), Synectics (SNX.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany May industrial production +1.2% m/m vs consensus (0.6%), prior revised (1.6%) from (1.4%)
UK Jun house price index +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.2%, prior revised +2.6% from +2.5% - Halifax
Sweden Jun preliminary CPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus +0.4%, prior +0.2%
Denmark May manufacturing production +0.1% m/m vs consensus (1.2%), prior revised +2.1% from +2.0%
Norway May manufacturing production (1.7%) m/m vs consensus (1.0%), prior revised +2.9% from +2.8%
Eurozone
Jul investor confidence +4.5 vs consensus +1.1, prior +0.2 - Sentix
May retail sales +1.8% y/y vs consensus +1.2%, prior revised +2.7% from +2.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): ($68.37) or (100.00%) to $0.00
€-$ (0.0047) or (0.40%) to 1.1737
£-$ (0.0016) or (0.12%) to 1.3642
€-£ (0.0026) to 0.8602
S&P 500 +6.70%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.74%
DAX: +20.75%
CAC: +4.59%
MIB: +16.73%
Stoxx 600: +7.02%
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