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StreetAccount Summary - Europe Pre-Open: FTSE (0.1%), DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.2%, IBEX flat, MIB

Jul 07 ,2025

  • Synopsis

    • European equity markets set to open mixed after last week the Stoxx 600 posted a small weekly decline of ~(0.5%). Asian equities mostly lower Monday. Taiwan underperforming amid broad declines in semis.

    • With clock ticking down to 9-Jul deadline, President Trump said will begin sending out tariff letters and/or announcing trade deals from midday 7-Jul, earlier repeating US would be setting 'take it or leave it' terms. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned tariffs to revert to 'Liberation Day'/steeper levels though also signaled some leeway with levies taking effect 1- Aug.

    • Oil prices lower. WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.73) or (1.09%) to $66.27. On Saturday, OPEC+ producers announced agreement to boost crude output by larger-than-expected 548Kbpd in August following recent monthly trend of 411Kbpd increases (Bloomberg, Reuters, FT). Statement cited steady global economic outlook and low oil inventories, with delegates looking to meet stronger demand during northern summer. Sources also attributed outsized nature of next month's hike to residual anger over Iraq and Kazakhstan's continued overproduction. Saudi desire to regain market share another factor thought to be driving the production hikes. Sources added OPEC+ will consider another 548Kbpd increase for September, which would fully restore the 2.2Mbpd of output curtailed in 2023 and potentially accelerate market shift to oversupply.

    • On the corporate front today, focus on eenergy sector with Shell (SHEL.LN) due to issue a Q2 2025 Quarterly Update Release, while Galp (GALP.PL) and Repsol (REP.SM) also due to issue trading updates. In M&A, Capgemini (CAP.FP) to acquire WNS for cash consideration of $76.50 per share

    • Today's central bank agenda: Bank of Greece's Stournaras at 9:00CET, Deputy PM Hatzidakis and EIB's Tsakiris among the speakers at conf entitled "Competitiveness and Innovation". Bundesbank's Nagel lecture at Estonia's central bank at 10:00CET title "The German Economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth" (livestream). Austria central bank hosting event title 'Climate, Inflation and Monetary Policy' with Holzmann on panels at 15:00CET and 16:30. Poland central bank releases minutes of last MPC meeting at 14:00CET.

    • In politics, Eurogroup meeting with election of President on the agenda. Donohoe seen as front runner for a third term (current term expires on 12-Jul). ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone participate. Informal meeting of EU employment ministers (through Tue). In the UK, The Pension Schemes Bill continues its passage through parliament. German Retail Assn. half-year press conf at 10:30CET.

    • European macro data releases out today include Germany May industrial production, Norway May manufacturing production, Sweden Jun preliminary CPI, Denmark May industrial production, UK Jun house price index - Halifax, Eurozone Jul Sentix economic index, May retail sales

  • Politics/Macro/World News

    • ECB's Makhlouf Says Euro Not Ready to Challenge Dollar's Role (Bloomberg )

    • China's Retaliation to EU Curbs Complicates Ties Before Summit (Bloomberg )

    • Trump threatens extra 10% tariffs on BRICS as leaders meet in Brazil (Reuters)

    • Forcing pensions into British assets like 'capital controls', says Lloyds boss (FT )

  • Top company news

    • Earnings/updates

      • CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- expects Q2 2025 y/y growth at constant currency to be slightly better than the -0.4% reported in Q1 2025. The group also expects for H1 2025 the operating margin to be stable y/y at 12.4%.

      • ENX.FP (Euronext) -- June trading activity

      • SALM.NO (Salmar) -- reports Q2 consolidated harvest volumes (1,000 tgw) 64.5

      • HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- reports preliminary Q2 EBITA SEK169M vs FactSet SEK228.2M

      • CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson) -- reports Jun sales +8% to SEK921M; +10% organic

      • Also reporting today

        • Earnings:

          • Nordics: Wihlborgs Fastigheter (WIHL.SS), Wallenstam (WALL.B.SS), Fabege (FABG.SS), Eastnine (EAST.SS)

        • Trading Update:

          • Nordics: Kid (KID.NO)

          • Southern Europe: Repsol (REP.SM), Galp Energia (GALP.PL)

          • UK: Shell (SHEL.LN), Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN)

          • Other: Íslandsbanki (ISB.IR)

    • M&A

      • WNS (WNS), CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- Capgemini to acquire WNS for cash consideration of $76.50 per share

      • FYNBK.DC (Fynske Bank) -- Nordfyns Bank raises offer for Fynske Bank to 3.5 shares from 2.7 shares

      • KVIKA.IR (Kvika Banki hf) -- Kvika board rejects updated Íslandsbanki merger proposal

      • ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- completes the acquisition of Santander's 30.5% stake in CACEIS and now brings its ownership to 100%

      • G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- Unicredit begins selldown of stake in Assicurazioni Generali - la Repubblica

      • SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell) -- Sale of TSB not dissuading BBVA from trying to buy Banco Sabadell - Bloomberg (15:35 CET 4-Jul)

      • SQN.SW (Swissquote Group Holding) -- Swissquote acquires PostFinance's 50% of Yuh JV from PostFinance at valuation of CHF180M

      • 543988.IN (Nuvama Wealth Management) -- PE, HSBC in talks to buy PAG's controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management - Economic Times

      • Octopus Energy said to be nearing discussions with advisers for a £10B demerger of Kraken Technologies - Sky News

    • Other

      • AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- AirAsia signs $12.25B (€10.40B) MoU for up to 70 Airbus A321XLRs

      • TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- Contractors to resume construction of TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG project - Bloomberg (17:24 CET 4-Jul)

      • SUBC.NO (Subsea 7) -- awarded sizeable ($50-150M) contract offshore Egypt

      • ROSN.RU (Rosneft Oil) -- shareholders approve 2024 dividend payment of RUB14.68/share

      • China imposes restrictions on medical devices imported from EU in government procurement activities, effective today

      • Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $153.7M, (1.6%) y/y - Box Office Mojo

  • Key rating changes

    • Upgrades

      • BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt

      • BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena long-term IDR upgraded to BBB- from BB+ at Fitch, outlook stable

      • CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- to buy from hold at DNB Carnegie

      • PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan

      • G.IM (Generali) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan

    • Downgrades

      • CURY.LN (Currys) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets

      • MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- to sell from buy at Stifel

      • PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan

  • Data

    • Nikkei (0.57%) to 39583.97

    • Hang Seng (0.17%) to 23875.48

    • Shanghai Composite +0.03% to 3473.34

    • S&P futures (27.0) vs prior close of 6324.3

    • €-$ (0.0010) or (0.09%) to 1.1773

    • $-¥ +0.53 or +0.37% to 144.97

    • €-¥ +0.49 or +0.29% to 170.67

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