Jul 08 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly higher Tuesday on relief the US gave nations another three weeks to negotiate trade deals. South Korea saw the best of the gains despite Samsung Electronics warning over quarterly profits. Hong Kong and Shenzhen with solid gains, Singapore and Japan also finished higher. ASX closed flat after the RBA unexpectedly held base rates steady. India also flat, Thailand underperformed Southeast Asia. US futures mixed, Europe with a higher open. US dollar off overnight highs, AUD jumped on RBA, NZD also higher, other Asia currencies quiet. Treasuries mixed. Oil contracts lower, precious metals flat, copper finding a floor after a three-day selloff.
Asia equity markets rising in relief rally after the White House gave countries another three weeks to negotiate trade deals, and largely brushing off letters from President Trump directing terms of tariff levels. India and Taiwan did not receive such letters but most Asia countries did, sparking mixed responses from the region's capitals: Japan's PM Ishiba called Japan's 25% "truly regrettable" while South Korea's industry ministry said it would lengthened period to reach a mutually beneficial result; Malaysia, Thailand and Malaysia all offered to buy more US goods. Vietnam's central bank also said it was ready to take steps to curb inflation, support growth.
In other developments, the RBA surprised by keeping base interest rate steady at 3.85% in a 6-3 vote. Australia business sentiment improved for a third consecutive month. Indonesia consumer sentiment improved marginally but remains near three-year lows. Japan exports steadied in first 20 days of June following prior month's contraction. Ahead this week, Bank of Korea and RBNZ rate decisions with both expected to keep lending rates steady.
Japan Activation Capital has bought a 4% stake in Omron (6645.JP) for around ¥30B; Omron stock surged. Nissan Motor (7201.JP) said it would increase its convertible bond issuance to ¥200B from ¥150B announced Monday. Hangzhou Hikvision (002415.CH) said it would challenge Canada's order to shut down operations in the country. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) said it would likely miss Q2 profit targets because of US AI chip curbs on China. Platinum Asset Management (PTM.AU) announced a merger agreement with L1 Capital.
Digest:
Trump issues tariff letters, but extends deadline to 1-Aug and remains open to negotiations:
On Monday President Trump announced 25% tariffs on South Korea, and Japan, similar to Liberation Day levies (Bloomberg, Reuters). At same time Trump signed executive order extending tariff deadline to 1-Aug, leaving open potential for trade agreements. Speaking to reporters afterwards Trump said 1-Aug not firm deadline and confirmed openness to negotiating tariff rates set out in letters if countries present different offers. White House said close to finalizing several trade deals with Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipating several announcements in next 48 hours (CNBC). Trump's letter to Japan also left open tariff adjustment if Tokyo removes tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. Extended deadline seen giving Japan political room to maneuver amid government sensitivity to farm interests ahead of upper house elections on 20-Jul (Bloomberg).PM Ishiba said will continue trade talks though both he and lead negotiator Akazawa maintained red lines on national interests and removal of auto tariffs. South Korea similarly viewed 1-Aug deadline as grace period for talks to continue (Bloomberg). India and EU among trading partners that did not receive tariff letters on Monday. Reuters sources noted EU close to agreement while Trump repeated close to deal with India.
Asia equities trade higher as US tariff deadline extended, capitals react with offers:
Asia equity markets mostly higher Tuesday in relief Washington gave nations another three weeks to negotiate trade deals. Most Asia countries received letters, sparking mixed responses from the region's capitals: Japan's PM Ishiba called Japan's 25% "truly regrettable" (JapanTimes); South Korea's industry ministry said it would use the period up to 1-Aug to reach a mutually beneficial negotiation result (Yonhap); Malaysia said it would keep seeking a mutually beneficial deal with US after the White House imposed a 25% tariff (NewStraitsTimes); Thailand will see a 36% tariff and offered to acquire more Boeing aircraft and commit to a 20-year LNG import deal to avert it (BangkokPost); Indonesia to see 32% levy despite offering to purchase more aircraft and wheat, Jakarta said there was still room to respond (Bloomberg). India, said to be close to final deal (BusinessStandard),and Taiwan did not receive tariff letters, latter still in ongoing talks (TaiwanNews).
RBA unexpectedly leaves cash rate unchanged, Bullock confident on path to rate cuts:
RBA left cash rate unchanged at 3.85% against expectations of a 25 bp cut. Six board members voted for decision with three against. RBA Governor Bullock said board maintains cautious, gradual approach to easing policy and is confident on path to more rate cuts. Added that consideration for rate cuts more about timing than direction. Board judged inflation risks as balanced but opted to wait for more information to confirm inflation on track to reach 2.5% target midpoint, underlining significance of Q2 CPI on 30-Jul that may presage an August cut. Bullock highlighted risk that quarterly CPI is higher than what RBA forecast in May as factor that stayed board's hand. RBA remains cautious about outlook amid elevated global uncertainty and with trade developments still expected to negatively affect global activity. Likelihood of severe downside scenario has abated, though board continues to watch situation closely and implications for Australia with policy well placed to respond. Tone on domestic economy somewhat more positive with RBA judging labour market as strong and private demand recovering gradually. Reiterated it remains focused on price stability and full employment sides of mandate.
BRICS leaders rebuke Trump following tariff threat:
BRICS leaders in Rio de Janeiro rebuked President Trump following his threat to impose additional 10% tariffs on countries that align with the bloc's 'Anti-American policies' (FT, Bloomberg). Officials were attempting to gauge whether Trump's post amounted to specific threat or general rehash of his past criticisms. Reuters sources noted Trump administration won't immediately impose 10% tariffs but will do so if BRICS nations take undertake 'anti-American' policies. Still unclear what would constitute 'anti-American' policies though Trump has previously warned against moves to abandon US dollar. BRICS statement outlined some positions at odds with Trump administration, though also indicated lack of progress in advancing cross-border payments system even as members reaffirmed commitment to expanding local currency financing and diversifying funding sources. BRICS members have talked in broad terms about reducing dollar dependence though moves to abandon dollar and create common currency have not gotten much traction. Some BRICS nations also involved in trade talks with US and Trump is close to some of their leaders, making it unclear how tariffs would be levied.
StreetAccount Event Preview: Bank of Korea policy meeting, 10 July
Bank of Korea widely expected to keep base interest rate unchanged at 2.5% Thursday with most analysts polled by Reuters expecting either one or two more cuts by year end. June headline CPI rose to 2.2% y/y, above BOK target, however economists said this was mostly supply driven, principally high oil prices caused by Israel-Iran conflict, and unlikely to influence BOK decision. Volatility around summer food prices also unlikely to be factor with core inflation anchored around 2.0%. Bank more likely to be cognizant of Seoul house prices, elevated household loans, impact of 25% tariff rate to start 1-Aug (Yonhap). Forex considerations may also weigh with won rallying strongly since election of President Lee but rate differential with US remains elevated at 2.0%. Analyst cited by Yonhap said BOK has no choice but to align pace of rate cuts with Fed.
Notable Gainers:
+10.8% 3186.JP (Nextage): reports Q2 earnings; raises FY guidance
+10.0% 601138.CH (Foxconn Industrial Internet): guides H1 net income attributable CNY11.96-12.16B vs year-ago CNY8.74B
+8.1% 6645.JP (OMRON): Japan Activation Capital reportedly buys 4% stake in OMRON for ¥30B
+3.0% 3088.JP (MatsukiyoCocokara & Co.): upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; firm positive on company's commitment to improving shareholder value
Notable Decliners:
-6.4% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): to increase convertible bond to ¥200.00B from ¥150.00B
-3.6% 1164.HK (CGN Mining): expects CGN Global Uranium H1 gross profit to be significantly and negatively impacted by market price fluctuations
-3.2% 3443.TT (Global Unichip): reports June revenue NT$2.42B, (9.5%) y/y
-0.5% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): reports preliminary Q2 operating profit KRW4.60T vs StreetAccount KRW6.834T, revenue KRW74.00T vs StreetAccount KRW76.308T; to launch KRW3.510T buyback, to run from 9-Jul through 8-Oct
-0.4% 17.HK (New World Development): reportedly looks to sell office portion of Shanghai K11 property
Data:
Economic:
Japan
May current account balance ¥3,436.4B vs ¥2,258.0B in prior month
June bank lending +2.8% y/y vs +2.4% in prior month
Australia June
NAB business confidence +5 vs +2 in May
Business conditions +9 vs 0 in May
Markets:
Nikkei: 101.13 or +0.26% to 39688.81
Hang Seng: 260.24 or +1.09% to 24148.07
Shanghai Composite: 24.35 or +0.70% to 3497.48
Shenzhen Composite: 27.90 or +1.34% to 2102.36
ASX200: 1.40 or +0.02% to 8590.70
KOSPI: 55.48 or +1.81% to 3114.95
SENSEX: 55.59 or +0.07% to 83498.09
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.05 or +0.04% to 146.1320
$-KRW: (8.49) or (0.62%) to 1367.1000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.74% to 0.6539
$-INR: (0.15) or (0.17%) to 85.7059
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 7.1711
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