Jul 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mixed Wednesday. Japan's main boards gained alongside mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan. Singapore also added a few points while the rest of Southeast Asia ended mixed. The Hang Seng fell and closed near its day's low, Australia's ASX also dipped. India trading flat for a third consecutive day. US futures now higher, Europe opened with fresh gains. Dollar slightly higher but in a volatile session, yen weaker on BOJ board member comments, other Asia currencies quiet. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields slightly higher, IGB yields at one-month lows. Crude futures lower, gold lower. Copper surging in New York trading but lower in London as tariff threat hits, other base metals higher.
Asia markets responded once again with mixed results to President Trump's latest tariff threats. Several Asia-listed metal stocks including MMG (1208.HK), Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) and Zijin Mining (2899.HK) all fell sharply, and several renewable stocks such as Hanwha Solutions (00830.KS) fell as the US moved to phase out wind and solar energy subsidies. On the positive side, several Japan-based pharma stocks outperformed after Trump implied at least a year's delay before imposing a 200% tariff on overseas-made product. No progress of note in ongoing trade negotiations.
In other developments, the RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at 3.25% as expected but emphasized it still expects to lower OCR further so long as inflation pressure ease further. Bank Negara Malaysia trimmed its base rate 25 bps with the bank saying risks are weighed to the downside . China CPI turned positive for the first time since January while core inflation rose to a 14-month high. However, PPI deflation worsened amid ongoing declines in raw material prices. Thailand's consumer confidence reading dropped to its lowest since 2023; Indonesia retail sales bounced back in May.
AEON Financial Holdings (8570.JP) said it would postpone Q1 results for 21 days after discovering an "inappropriate" accounting transaction prior to a Vietnamese acquisition. A UK public inquiry called for Fujitsu (6702.JP) to release a compensation plan by the end of October for victims of a Post Office accounting software scandal. Nissan Motor (7201.JP) said it will postpone production of EVs in the US following the White House's decision to end tax breaks for EV cars; will suspend production of three models for Canada markets made in the US. New World Development (17.HK) is considering divesting its real estate projects in mainland China as part of its agreement to secure last month's loan refinancing deal. ICICI Bank's (5321754.IN) and Prudential UK's asset management joint venture has filed for an IPO that could see the sale of around 10% of ICICI Prudential AM's equity share capital.
Digest:
Trump hardens stance on tariffs as Asian nations look to secure deals before deadline:
President Trump hardened tariff stance on Tuesday by announcing copper tariffs of 50% with Commerce Secretary Lutnick later giving end-July/1-Aug implementation date (Bloomberg, Reuters). Trump further suggested pharma tariffs of 200%, though with 1-1.5Y timeline. Also hosed down suggestions of a tariff deadline extension beyond 1-Aug, a day after saying this wasn't a firm date and voicing openness to negotiating the rates if countries present different trade offers. Trump took another shot at BRICS nations, accusing them of undermining dollar and vowing to soon hit with additional 10% tariff (Reuters). Trump's tariff salvo comes as major Asian nations try to secure trade agreements before 1-Aug, though usual sticking points remain with Japan maintaining demands for auto tariff removal and vowing to protect sensitive industries such as agriculture (Reuters). Trump has said India deal close but Delhi maintaining red lines on genetically modified US crops and continues to resist access to dairy sector. South Korea said aiming to address US concerns over non-tariff barriers though also mindful of protecting national interests (Bloomberg).
TACO narrative in focus following Trump's tariff delay and openness to negotiations:
Markets have largely shrugged off President Trump's latest tariff salvo with TACO narrative getting renewed traction. Trump delayed tariff deadline from 9-Jul to 1-Aug, recalling previous episodes of setting deadlines only to push them back at the last minute to allow negotiations to continue. Trump dialed back punitive tariffs on China in early June when he acknowledged mounting concerns about shortages of rare earths magnets. Markets have also acted as a deterrent when April's synchronized selloff in stocks, bonds and dollar led Trump to announce 90-day pause just a week after 'Liberation Day'. On Tuesday Trump insisted that 1-Aug is the new tariff deadline though day earlier said it wasn't 100% firm and he would open to negotiations. Trump's tariff letters to other countries noted tariffs could be modified and in case of Japan and South Korea said would consider adjustment to the 25% tariff if countries eliminated tariff and non-tariff barriers. White House also continues to tease imminent trade deals amid reports agreements with EU and India close.
China CPI sees modest increase while PPI falls most in almost two years:
Headline CPI rose 0.1% y/y in June, versus estimates of 0.0% and 0.1% drop in May. It was first positive growth since January. Core inflation edged up to 0.7% from May's 0.6%. Food prices were down 0.3%, compared with 0.4% fall in May. Beef prices ended 28th consecutive month of declines however pork prices fell 8.5%. Rural prices dropped 0.2% and urban prices rose 0.1%. Overall goods prices dropped 0.2% while services rose 0.5%. NBS statistician said turnaround in CPI mainly due to rebound in industrial goods, rise in oil prices, surges in prices of gold jewelry, platinum jewelry, and pro-consumption policies. Meanwhile PPI downtrend extended into 33th month, down 3.6% vs consensus 3.2% drop and 3.3% decline in May, weakest in nearly two years. Negative momentum continued for both upstream and downstream prices. NBS said domestic raw material prices fell due to seasonal lull during summer, lower electricity prices due to higher green energy output and exporters faced downward price pressure due to gloabl trade uncertainties.
Malaysia central bank trims overnight policy rate:
Bank Negara Malaysia cut its overnight policy rate 25 bps to 2.75% Wednesday, as expected by slim majority of Reuters-polled analysts, and hinted at strongly by BNM in May. First policy shift in more than two years and first rate cut in five years. Bank said domestic outlook supported by resilient domestic demand, employment and wage growth while favorable trade negotiations and tourism are upside risks. However, balance of risks tilted to downside stemming from weaker global trade, poorer sentiment, lower commodity production. Called decision to cut rate 'preemptive measure' aimed at maintaining steady growth path amid moderate inflation. Malaysia to grapple with 25% tariff rate from US however PM Anwar set to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio Thursday to discuss rate, and just as country's trade minister said he was confident agreement could be reached before 1-Aug (Bloomberg).
RBNZ on hold as expected, anticipates lower interest rates:
RBNZ left official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25% as expected. Statement leaned dovish with MPC having debated whether to cut by 25 bp based on weak near-term growth momentum. Settled for hold decision amid elevated uncertainty and to allow for more time to assess domestic economic weakness before August meeting. Expects to lower OCR further subject to continued easing of medium-term inflation pressures. Inflation expected to push towards top end of 2-3% target band over Q3 but fall thereafter and return to midpoint by early 2026. Highlighted downside inflation risks from large negative output gap, moderate wage inflation and housing market weakness, and upside risks from changes in inflation expectations. Assessed economic activity broadly in-line with May statement, acknowledging Q1 economic rebound but pointing to weaker-than-expected high frequency indicators. Discussion on global outlook noted growth expected to slow in H2 and on balance trade protectionism expected to be disinflationary for New Zealand.
Notable Gainers:
+6.5% 9861.JP (Yoshinoya Holdings): reports Q1 earnings and confirms FY guidance
+5.9% 192080.KS (DoubleUGames): to acquire WHOW Games GmbH for €55.0M (KRW 88.39B) in cash; to launch KRW35.00B buyback
+5.8% 6669.TT (Wiwynn): reports June revenue NT$85.81B, +179.0% y/y
+5.2% 6952.JP (Casio Computer): holder Oasis Management discloses 5.19% stake
+1.3% 3141.JP (Welcia Holdings): reports Q1 earnings with operating profit and revenue ahead of FactSet estimates; reiterates H1 guidance
Notable Decliners:
-8.6% 12.HK (Henderson Land Development): issues HK$8B 0.5% convertible bonds due 2030 with initial conversion price of HK$36/share
-3.3% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): UK reportedly releases false accusations against post office and recommends Fujitsu to take remedial action
-1.6% 352820.KS (HYBE Co.): South Korean financial authorities reportedly to file criminal complaint with prosecution against HYBE chairman Bang Si-Hyuk
-0.2% 6752.JP (Panasonic): projector business sale to Orix reportedly falls through
Data:
Economic:
China June
CPI 0.1% y/y vs consensus 0.0% and (0.1%) in prior month
PPI (3.6%) y/y vs consensus (3.2%) and (3.3%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 132.47 or +0.33% to 39821.28
Hang Seng: (255.75) or (1.06%) to 23892.32
Shanghai Composite: (4.43) or (0.13%) to 3493.05
Shenzhen Composite: (0.77) or (0.04%) to 2101.60
ASX200: (52.10) or (0.61%) to 8538.60
KOSPI: 18.79 or +0.60% to 3133.74
SENSEX: 34.63 or +0.04% to 83747.13
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.18 or +0.12% to 146.7450
$-KRW: +5.69 or +0.42% to 1375.8400
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.10%) to 0.6524
$-INR: (0.02) or (0.02%) to 85.7321
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.11% to 7.1818
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