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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.19%), Hang Seng +0.46%, Shanghai Composite +0.01% as of 04:10 ET

Jul 11 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities continued to drift Friday. More gains in Hong Kong but benchmarks finished substantially off their peaks; Shanghai's composite near 3.5-year high intraday before also settling back to the flatline. Singapore's STI at record high, Southeast Asia benchmarks outperformed. Australia a few points lower, Japan's Nikkei down a little while the Topix traded slightly higher. South Korea a few points down, Taiwan slightly higher. For the week, South Korea's Kospi again outperformed alongside the Hang Seng while Japan's main benchmarks and Thailand underperformed. US futures lower, Europe down in the opening hour. US dollar a little higher but within its recent range; yen weaker again as tariff doubts spread, other Asia currencies lower. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also up. Crude oil futures up, precious metals rallying; iron ore at three-month highs on China property surge, copper giving up some ground. Cryptocurrencies rallying further with bitcoin above $118K for a time.

    • Asia equities struggled for a definitive direction this week with several benchmarks reaching multi-month or even record highs as investors brushed off President Trump's tariff threats, but others such as Japan trading in a tight range all week as Trump threatened fresh tariffs on Canada, Brazil and copper to add to his tariff letters at the start of the week. Yet stocks broadly supported by underlying optimism most countries will be able to strike a deal with the US by 1-Aug or that the White House will postpone the deadline again. Stocks supported Friday by another rally in technology stocks after Nvidia's valuation reached a landmark $4T. The Hang Seng gained almost 2% at one point on optimism over its property sector, a significant broker upgrade, and reports a PBOC advisor's had suggested a $209B stimulus program to counter US tariffs before selling off in the afternoon session.

    • Asia nations continue to negotiate trade deals with the US. Several Southeast Asia delegations set to visit Washington in the coming days; Japan looking to meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent next week; South Korea and US potentially eying up an agreement on shipbuilding and chips; India's negotiating team due to visit the US next week.

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) raised $4.5B in bond sales, according to term sheets. Chery and BYD (1211.HK) may have to repay subsidies after an audit showed they had improperly claimed $53M in government subsidies for eco-friendly vehicles sold between 2015 and 2020. Tata Consulting Services (532540.IN) said quarterly revenue missed expectations amid dampened client spending from caution over tariffs. KKR's talks with Blackstone over its 60.5% stake in Pepper Money (PPM.AU) have ended over differences in valuation views. Glenmark Pharma (532296.IN) signed a licensing agreement with US group AbbVie for its early stage blood cancer treatment.

  • Digest:

    • Trump to impose 35% tariff on Canada, flags higher baseline tariff of 15% or 20%:

      • President Trump ramped up trade tensions Thursday, announcing 35% tariff on Canada from 1-Aug. New rate is up on the current 25% and separate to any sectoral levies such as steel and aluminum. Trump's letter included complaints over Canada's role in US fentanyl crisis and its 400% levies on American dairy. Bloomberg cited an official who clarified that 35% tariff will still only apply to goods not covered by USMCA, which remain tariff-free. Tariffs on energy-related products also remains at 10%. Speaking on NBC News, Trump foreshadowed potential blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% (vs current 10% baseline). Added that EU would also be getting tariff letter shortly. Latest escalation follows recent period of calm where flurry of tariff letters were mostly discounted by markets given relatively small trading size of affected countries and Trump's tariff deadline extension that renewed attention to TACO narrative. Some thought extended deadline aimed at squeezing last minute concessions from ongoing negotiations with trading partners (link). Tariff letters have left open potential to adjust rates if countries present better trade terms. Trump also open to adjusting Canada tariffs if it cooperated on stopping flow of fentanyl into US.

    • China stocks, yuan and commodity markets seeing positive run:

      • China stocks extending positive run with Hang Seng nearing highest level since March. Goldman Sachs upgraded Hong Kong to market-weight and retained overweight rating on MSCI China, citing positive correlation with lower short-term US rates and USD weakness amid expectation Fed easing cycle will pick up pace. MSCI China index target of 85 implied 12% upside from prior close amid undemanding valuations, shareholder returns and leverage to AI theme. Strength also evident in China commodity markets with Dalian iron ore futures up ~4% over the week to highest since late February. Iron ore gains dovetailed with Thursday rally in property developers amid speculation of high-level meeting aimed at reviving property market via redevelopment of shantytowns. Shanghai rebar futures have also rallied alongside iron ore amid hopes authorities will move to tackle overcapacity in sectors such as steel (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, China yuan continues to consolidate against dollar near highest since Nov-2024. Support for yuan attributed to narrowing US-China rate differentials with PBOC easing expectations pulled back while market looking ahead to Fed rate cut in September.

    • JGB superlong term premium remains elevated on fiscal policy risks:

      • Nikkei discussed how superlong JGBs continue to reflect elevated term premia amid ongoing concerns about a degradation in fiscal discipline ahead of the 20-Jul upper house election. Some still see fiscal risks have yet to be fully priced in, raising the possibility of further increase in yields. Curve steepening continued into this week as 30y yield well outpaced gains in 10y. Noted Thursday's 20y auction was digested smoothly though did not inspire confidence in the outlook. Cited Barclays estimates that 30y term premium was 1.51% as of 8-Jul (vs nominal yield above 3%), down from 1.82% in mid-April though still well above 1.31% at the start of the month. In contrast, 10y term premium was around 0.3% on 8-Jul and has not changed significantly. Elevated levels indicate MOF's recent downsizing in superlong issuance and BOJ maintaining superlong purchases did not quell fiscal policy worries ahead of the upper house election, where ruling coalition risks losing majority control. Opposition party stimulus pledges essentially endorsing looser fiscal policy that may add trillions of yen to the budget deficit. Article also reprised demand side risks with the market increasingly dependent on foreign investors.

    • Japan dividend growth remains a source of optimism:

      • Nikkei analysis found Japan dividends set to grow to a fifth straight record this fiscal year despite risks from trade tensions in a potential boost to consumer spending as inflation drags down real wages. Annual dividends among some 2,300 companies with a March FY-end projected to growth 3% to JPY19.99T ($136B). Total would be 66% higher than FY18. Individuals hold just under a fifth of publicly listed shares, meaning that JPY3.5T of dividends would go to the household sector on a pretax basis. Article noted that about 910 companies, or nearly 40%, plan to increase or resume dividends this fiscal year. Growth contrasts with downbeat earnings prospects as TSE Prime Market constituents project a 7% decline in aggregate net income, which would market the first drop in six years. About 250 companies with shrinking profits plan dividend hikes, 30 more than this time last fiscal year. Trend partly due to ongoing pressure to enhance capital efficiency. Prime Market names with a March FY-end have a total JPY112T cash on hand, a historically high level. Companies are also looking to attract retail investors as they unwind cross-shareholdings, prompting companies to devise compelling dividend strategies.

    • Japan upper house election candidates skirt discussions on defense spending:

      • Nikkei survey of upper house election candidates (n=386) led to a takeaway that the topic of increased defense spending was largely avoided in the run-up to the 20-Jul vote. On aggregate, modal response (28.5%) actually favored a smaller defense budget, edging out support for the current target of 2% of GDP by FY27 (28%). Those endorsing a target above 2% of GDP was the smallest (21%). Breakdown by party varied -- 25% of LDP candidates endorsed a higher target, while support among coalition partner Komeito was zero. Biggest cohorts among opposition parties were Sanseito (45%) and DPP (30%). Reasons to increase include higher import prices due to yen weakness, development costs related to drones and AI, as well as ample ammunition reserves. With no formal policy target beyond FY27, experts are calling for advanced discussions. Topic has come to the fore after the Trump administration indicated US allies in Asia need to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP in line with NATO plans. Article noted significant proportion of candidates avoided taking a stance in the poll and there have been few indications they have taken up the topic with voters. With the main election battleground forming around reducing the taxpayer burden through cash handouts or tax cuts, story rationalized that candidates are avoiding the defense issue as it would blur policy messaging.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10.0% 603259.CH (WuXi AppTec): guides H1 adjusted net income CNY6.31B vs year-ago CNY4.37B

      • +6.0% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): begins pre-sale of sub-brand Onvo's electric SUV model L90

      • +4.3% 3008.TT (LARGAN Precision): reports Q2 results with EBIT ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +3.3% 3382.JP (Seven & I Holdings): reports Q1 earnings; revenue and operating income ahead of StreetAccount estimates

      • +1.3% 1788.HK (Guotai Junan International Holdings): guides H1 net income HK$515-595M vs year-ago HK$197M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -8.9% 2408.TT (Nanya Technology): reports Q2 earnings with EBIT below FactSet estimates

      • -6.9% 9983.JP (FAST RETAILING): reports Q3 results; with operating income below FactSet estimates

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (76.68) or (0.19%) to 39569.68

      • Hang Seng: 111.20 or +0.46% to 24139.57

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.50 or +0.01% to 3510.18

      • Shenzhen Composite: 9.83 or +0.47% to 2116.93

      • ASX200: (9.10) or (0.11%) to 8580.10

      • KOSPI: (7.46) or (0.23%) to 3175.77

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.63 or +0.43% to 146.8800

      • $-KRW: +3.60 or +0.26% to 1375.3300

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.23%) to 0.6575

      • $-INR: +0.12 or +0.14% to 85.8451

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 7.1706

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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