Jul 11 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended broadly lower Friday with Sweden (1.4%), Denmark (2.4%), Switzerland (1.6%) among the worst performers. Healthcare the worst sector performer. Banks also underperformed while energy the main outperformer. Oil gained after WTI crude closed 2.6% lower in prior session after OPEC trimmed nearer-term demand forecasts. Gold and Silver up.
Trump ramped up trade tensions after announcing 35% tariff on Canada from 1-Aug, separate from sectoral levies. Speaking on NBC News, Trump also foreshadowed tariff letter to EU and potential blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% (vs current 10% baseline). Latest escalation follows recent period of calm where flurry of tariff letters were mostly discounted by markets given small trading size of affected countries and Trump's tariff deadline extension also fitting in with notion of a possible reprieve. Elsewhere, EU-China tensions continue to simmer ahead leaders' summit later this month after two sides traded accusations over rare earths access.
Also on macro front, BoE widely expected to cut key Bank Rate by 25 bps in August after UK GDP growth surprised on the downside. After two months of contraction, there is a risk of a negative or flat quarterly outturn. Small risk growth underperforms BoE estimate for Q2 growth of 0.25%, though in mitigation March GDP revised up from 0.2% to 0.4%. BoE unlikely to shift away from gradual policy until there is concrete evidence disinflation process has resumed. Next week's June inflation data forecast to accelerate to 3.7% y/y and peak in Q3. BoE seen cutting rates two more times this year, though could have space to accelerate if demand slows more rapidly (London Times).
In geopolitics, Trump said he plans to make a major statement on Russia on Monday, as US prepares to send more US weapons to Ukraine and considers sanctions.
Among European sectors, Nordic banks saw downside today. Notably DNB (DNB.NO) (7.8%) results viewed as disappointing with ~4% miss for Operating profit before impairment. Avanza (AZA.SS) (4.1%) also reported softer than expected Q2 results with miss in fee income offset by NII beat. Handelsbanken (SHB.A.SS) saw a broker downgrade. Meanwile, Nordic insurers advanced on earnings Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO) +8.0% Q2 results far above expectations. Protector Forsikring (PROT.NO) and Tryg (TRYG.DC) +2.0% reports Q2 earnings ahead of consensus. Storebrand (STB.NO) +4.9% on strong Q2 results; also second tranche of the NOK1.5B buyback programme for 2025 launched, amounting to NOK750M. To the upside, Oil & Gas notable outperformer today with higher crude prices offering support to the sector. WTI Crude (Aug 25): +2.72% to $68.38. Focus also on BP.LN after Q2 upstream production exceeded forecasts.
Looking ahead to next week, things to keep an eye on include the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, UK's Chancellor Reeves and BOE governor Bailey deliver speeches at Mansion House, Germany Jul ZEW survey and UK Jun CPI as well as earnings/updates from regional heavyweights including ASML (ASML.NA), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), Experian (EXPN.LN), LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS), Novartis (NOVN.SW) and Richemont (CFR.SW). Of note, there's a bank holiday in France on Mon, the same day as the end of the EU tariff pause against the USA.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Energy+0.82%, Insurance +0.06%, Utilities +0.02%, Basic Resources (0.36%), Telecom (0.45%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.50%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.55%), Construct & Mtls (0.73%), Travel & Leisure (0.83%), Media (0.87%), Autos & Parts (0.91%), Technology (1.01%)
Underperformers:
Health Care (2.35%), Consumer Products and Services (2.16%), Banks (1.78%), Retail (1.49%), Chemicals (1.35%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (1.34%), Financial Svcs (1.04%)
Macro:
EU waits on Trump letter as markets digest latest tariff salvo -- Reuters
EU faces tough choices ahead of long-term budget proposals -- ANSA
Unite union moves to suspend Rayner and re-examine ties with Labour -- FT
Reeves disappointed after economy unexpectedly shrinks -- BBC
Italy FinMin urges banks to do more on lending, IT investment -- Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+10.8% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK16.89, +1.70) -- Q2 earnings
+7.8% GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring NOK279.40, +20.40) -- Q2 earnings
+7.3% BMAX.SS (Byggmax Group SEK55.90, +3.90) -- Q2 earnings
+4.5% 74SW.FP (74Software €40.20, +1.80) -- initiated outperform at Bernstein
+4.4% STB.NO (Storebrand NOK144.80, +6.10) -- Q2 earnings
+3.8% ENTRA.NO (Entra ASA NOK129.00, +4.80) -- Q2 earnings
+3.6% AVIO.IM (Avio €24.25, +0.85) -- becomes launch service provider for the Vega launcher family
+3.5% EMSN.SW (EMS-Chemie Holding CHF643.00, +21.50) -- H1 earnings
+3.4% BP.LN (BP £3.99, +0.13) -- trading update
+2.8% M5Z.GR (Manz AG €0.22, +0.01) -- ekvip automation GmbH agrees to acquire Manz USA
+2.5% MYCR.SS (Mycronic SEK214.20, +5.20) -- Q2 earnings
+1.9% HO.FP (Thales €250.60, +4.70) -- Macron to propose defense budget hike but faces fiscal and political challenges
+1.4% FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich CHF229.80, +3.20) -- June traffic statistics
+0.5% GRNG.SS (Gränges SEK125.80, +0.60) -- Q2 earningsx
Notable Decliners
-32.7% XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion SEK231.60, -97.80) -- Q2 earnings
-16.6% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK408.80, -78.00) -- Q2 earnings
-16.0% ACSO.LN (accesso Technology Group £3.75, -0.76) -- FY trading update
-14.7% EKI.FP (Ekinops €4.24, -0.73) -- Portzamparc downgrade
-13.1% ALMKT.FP (Mauna Kea Technologies €0.12, -0.02) -- reaches major milestone in its safeguard procedure; extends financial horizon beyond observation period of safeguard procedure
-10.3% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK33.42, -3.84) -- Q2 earnings
-9.4% JM.SS (JM SEK137.20, -14.50) -- Q2 earnings
-8.8% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK263.50, -25.10) -- Q2 earnings
-8.3% ELK.NO (Elkem NOK22.28, -2.04) -- Q2 earnings
-7.9% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.75, -0.15) -- UBS downgrade
-5.8% TFF.FP (TFF Group €19.75, -1.20) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.0% KOF.FP (Kaufman & Broad €32.00, -1.65) -- Q2 earnings
-4.5% DUNI.SS (Duni SEK91.90, -4.30) -- Q2 earnings
-3.8% ELAN.B.SS (Elanders SEK56.90, -2.30) -- Q2 earnings
-3.1% NONG.NO (SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge NOK151.66, -4.84) -- Fremtind Holding Group releases Q2/H1 results
-2.8% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK348.10, -10.40) -- Q2 earnings
-2.1% LIME.SS (Lime Technologies SEK395.50, -8.50) -- Q2 earnings
-2.0% ARJO.B.SS (Arjo SEK34.96, -0.70) -- Q2 earnings
-2.0% MIG.GA (MIG Holdings €3.44, -0.07) -- concludes a notarial pre-agreement for the sale of the Poslovni Center property in Belgrade for €21M
-1.4% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £0.00, -0.07) -- Susan Davy has decided to retire from the Board and as CEO
-1.0% DEDI.SS (Dedicare SEK44.65, -0.45) -- Q2 earnings
-0.4% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK57.60, -0.25) -- Q2 earnings
-0.1% 1COV.GR (Covestro €0.00, -0.04) -- prelim. Q2 / lowers FY EBITDA, FOCF and ROCE over WACC outlook
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Norway: Orkla (ORK.NO), Solstad Offshore (SOFF.NO), Smartoptics Group (SMOP.NO), AMSC (AMSC.NO)
Sweden: Lifco (LIFCO.B.SS), Sagax (SAGA.B.SS), OEM International (OEM.B.SS), Addnode Group (ANOD.B.SS), Inwido (INWI.SS), Norion Bank (NORION.SS), Volati (VOLO.SS), NOTE (NOTE.SS), Hexatronic Group (HTRO.SS), Coor Service Management Holding (COOR.SS), Proact IT Group (PACT.SS), Balco Group (BALCO.SS)
UK: DP Poland (DPP.LN), Eco Animal Health Group (EAH.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN)
Data:
Economics:
UK May
Industrial production (0.3%) y/y vs consensus +0.1%, prior revised +0.3% from (0.3%)
Construction output +1.2% y/y vs consensus +1.7%, prior revised +3.6% from +3.3%
Visible trade balance (£21.69B) vs consensus (£21.5B), prior revised (£22.42B) from (£23.21B)
France Jun CPI +1.0% y/y vs preliminary +0.9%
Norway Jun trade balance NOK47.4B vs consensus NOK66.8B, prior NOK46.1B
Switzerland Jun SECO consumer sentiment (32.2) vs consensus (35.0), prior (36.5)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 25): +$1.81 or +2.72% to $68.38
€-$ +0.0001 or +0.01% to 1.1703
£-$ (0.0073) or (0.54%) to 1.3506
€-£ +0.0047 to 0.8665
S&P 500 (0.22%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.40%
DAX: +21.83%
CAC: +6.08%
MIB: +17.23%
Stoxx 600: +7.82%
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