Jul 14 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly flat to lower while the euro slips to a three-week low early Monday, after US President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the EU beginning 1-Aug. Last week, the DAX and FTSE hit fresh record highs, while the STOXX Europe 600 ended up +1.15%.
Asia equities trading mixed Monday. China trade data showed exports somewhat firmer than expected amid views the US-China tariff truce induced another phase of front-loading. Most of the attention going to notable declines in US futures in the wake of latest Trump tariff news, extending Friday's losses that capped off the first decline in S&P 500 in three weeks.
The week ahead sees G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, UK's Chancellor Reeves and BOE governor Bailey deliver speeches at Mansion House, Germany Jul ZEW survey and UK Jun CPI as well as earnings/updates from ASML Holding (ASML.NA), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), Experian (EXPN.LN), LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS), Novartis (NOVN.SW) and Richemont (CFR.SW).
European macro data releases out today include Finland Jun final CPI, Sweden Jun final CPI, Switzerland Jun PPI
On the corporate front, focus on German chemicals sector after BASF (BAS.GR) and Brenntag (BNR.GR) both reported prelim Q2 results and cut FY guidance late Friday.
In M&A, FT reports Orange, Bouygues, Iliad-owned Free exploring carve-up of Patrick Drahi's SFR. Elsewhere, Mediobanca (MB.IM) board finds Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) offer as 'hostile, not agreed with the company, and lacking in convenience for shareholders'; conf. call set for 14-Jul at 15:00 CET
In central banks, first of Bundesbank pre releases at 12noon CET from latest monthly report. ECB's Cipollone exchange of views at 17:00CET with EP committee (livestream). G20 finance and Central Bank deputies followed by Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (Thu/Fri).
On the political front, EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council (EU's Hansen participates) and Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) (EU's Šefčovič participates) meet, as does the EU-Central America Assn Council.
Politics/Macro/World News
Bank of England could cut rates if jobs market slows down -- The Times
UK labour market cooled rapidly in June, KPMG/REC survey shows -- Reuters
EU Plans to Engage More With Other Nations Hit by US Tariffs -- Bloomberg
EU ready to retaliate after Trump hits bloc with 30 percent tariff -- POLITICO
Europe's freedom faces greatest 'threat' since WW2, says Macron -- BBC
Rachel Reeves to roll out concierge service for firms fleeing US -- The Times
Top company news
Earnings/updates
BAS.GR (BASF SE) --
reports preliminary Q2 adjusted EBITDA €1.77B vs FactSet €1.75B [7 est, €1.68-1.84B]
guides FY Adjusted EBITDA €7.3B-7.7B vs prior guidance €8B-8.4B and FactSet €7.71B [23 est, €7.11-9.01B]
BNR.GR (Brenntag) -- expects FY25 EBITA €950M-1.05B vs prior guidance €1.1-1.3B and FactSet €1.09B; preliminary Q2 operating gross profit €974.3M
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary H1 EBIT €20M vs year-ago €55.8M
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Jun sales €1.09B, +3.7% in comparable terms
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- reports final Q2 earnings inline with prelim. release: EPS SEK0.38 vs FactSet SEK0.58 [3 est, SEK0.52-0.62]
SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore) -- reports Q2 net income $37M vs FactSet $24.5M [2 est, $18-31M]; to initiate quarterly dividends based on Q3
ORK.NO (Orkla) -- reports Q2 EPS NOK1.56 ex-items vs FactSet NOK1.53 [5 est, NOK1.40-1.61]
INWI.SS (Inwido) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK2.69 vs FactSet SEK3.22 [4 est, SEK3.16-3.32]; financial targets remain unchanged
Also reporting today
Earnings:
Norway: Solstad Offshore (SOFF.NO), Smartoptics Group (SMOP.NO), AMSC (AMSC.NO)
Sweden: Lifco (LIFCO.B.SS), Sagax (SAGA.B.SS), OEM International (OEM.B.SS), Addnode Group (ANOD.B.SS), Norion Bank (NORION.SS), Volati (VOLO.SS), NOTE (NOTE.SS), Hexatronic Group (HTRO.SS), Coor Service Management Holding (COOR.SS), Proact IT Group (PACT.SS), Balco Group (BALCO.SS)
UK: DP Poland (DPP.LN), Eco Animal Health Group (EAH.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN)
M&A
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- enters into exclusive discussions with a European holding company of Ferrara Candy Company regarding the sale of CPK
BPSO.IM (Banca Popolare di Sondrio) -- BPER Banca closed the acceptance offer period by reaching 58.49% of the share capital of Banca Popolare di Sondrio (post EU close 11-Jul)
ILTY.IM (illimity Bank) -- Banca Ifis announces provisionally ends the re-opened offer period with 92.488% of the share capital of illimity Bank (post EU close 11-Jul)
LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group) -- in advanced discussions to acquire Curve - Sky News
BBU (Brookfield Business Partners) -- Warburg Pincus looking at La Trobe - Australian Financial Review
UCG.IM (UniCredit) -- comments on court ruling, questions how Banco BPM has treated holders
MB.IM (Mediobanca) -- board finds Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) offer as 'hostile, not agreed with the company, and lacking in convenience for shareholders'; conf. call set for 14-Jul at 15:00 CET
BAMI.IM (Banco BPM) -- Crédit Agricole to file authorization request with the ECB to cross 20% in the share capital of Banco BPM
BAMI.IM (Banco BPM) -- acknowledges court ruling, seeks clarification from UniCredit
SOL.SM (Soltec Power Holdings) -- sells jv stake and Italian assets for total €20.6M
NHF.AU (NIB Holdings) -- NIB Holdings' travel insurance unit sale draws interest from Hollard, Allianz, Zurich -- The Australian
Orange, Bouygues, Iliad in talks to divide SFR among them - FT
Healthcare
RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals) -- presents new data on setmelanotide, bivamelagon at ENDO 2025
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- announces lifting of EMA's temporary restriction on use of Chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ in elderly
Other
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- ThyssenKrupp, IG Metall reach joint agreement on restructuring collective agreement
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $196.6M, +59.8% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ACSO.LN (accesso Technology Group) -- to add from hold at Peel Hunt
XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- to buy from hold at DNB Carnegie
Downgrades
ELE.SM (Endesa) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank) -- to hold from buy at SEB
RMS.FP(Hermes) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
Data
Nikkei +0.02% to 39576.02
Hang Seng +0.38% to 24230.51
Shanghai Composite +0.43% to 3525.17
S&P futures (29.5) vs prior close of 6300.0
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.1669
$-¥ +0.20 or +0.13% to 147.41
€-¥ +0.23 or +0.13% to 172.00
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