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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.55%, Hang Seng +1.60%, Shanghai Composite (0.42%) as of 04:10 ET

Jul 15 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Tuesday. Hong Kong surged to more than three-month highs on a tech-driven rally, mainland China mixed as Shanghai dipped but Shenzhen rallied. Strong gains for Australia, South Korea and Taiwan; India also trading higher, another new record high for Singapore. Southeast Asia a little more mixed with Thailand closed. Solid gains for Japan's Nikkei. US futures higher with Nasdaq surging on Nvidia newsflow, Europe opened higher. US dollar weaker, Asia currencies rallying. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields spiking to multi-year or multi month highs. Precious metals mixed, crude oil futures on the retreat, base metals mixed post China activity data. Cryptocurrencies retreating from recent highs.

    • Asia equities turned brighter Tuesday following reports Nvidia was set to receive an export license to ship modified H20 AI chips to China, sparking a rally in several China-based technology names. Sentiment improved sufficiently to pull other tech-leaning boards in South Korea and Taiwan higher while the Hang Seng Tech index rose more than 3.0%. China markets reacted cautiously to GDP and monthly activity data; first they dipped slightly before the tech-led bounce as investors saw the better-than-expected Q2 GDP figure as good enough for Beijing to hold off on stimulus. But monthly retail sales and new home prices both missed, with economists warning both June's industrial output beat and quarterly GDP figure was likely inflated on a pre 1-Aug manufacturing surge.

    • Elsewhere, Japan government bond yields surged on deepening concerns over this month's upper house elections which, if opinion polls prove correct, could land PM Ishiba's ruling coalition a heavy blow. Whatever the outcome, analysts worried over populist pledges from all sides, and their subsequent impact on fiscal policy and bond issuance. Australia consumer confidence remained muted with economists partly blaming RBA's decision to hold last week for the muted reading. Ahead, US CPI due with FactSet consensus on 2.6%.

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) is to close its Oppama factory by 2028 as part of its global restructuring. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.JP) is set to make an additional $1.1B investment in India's Yes Bank (532648.IN) to follow a similar investment pledge two months ago. Standard Chartered (2888.HK) has launched spot trading for bitcoin and ether through its UK branch for institutional clients to cater for rising demand.

  • Digest:

    • China GDP slightly above expectations, activity data mixed:

      • GDP expanded 5.2% y/y in Q2, slightly better than consensus 5.1%, though still slower than 5.4% in the previous quarter. Sequential growth was 1.1% q/q, also above consensus 0.9%, following 1.2% in Q1. June activity data were mixed. Industrial production rose 6.8% y/y, notably beating consensus 5.6%, following prior 5.8%. However, aggregate capacity utilization softened to 74.0% in Q2 from 74.9% a year earlier. Key disappointment came in retail sales, up 4.8% y/y in June, below consensus 5.2% and 6.4% in May. While goods sales were more in line with expectations, main surprise came in a sharp slowdown in catering services to +0.9% from +5.9%. Household appliances and communications equipment remain the main bright spots reflecting government trade-in subsidies. Auto sales also moderately positive. Fixed asset investment growth slowed markedly to 2.8% y/y YTD, well below consensus 3.6% and prior month's 3.7%. Slowdown was broadly based -- Infrastructure decelerated to 4.6% from 5.6%, manufacturing softened to 7.5% from 8.5%, while closely watched real estate declines deepened further to 11.2% from 10.7%. New construction starts remain in deep contraction. Unemployment rate was steady at 5.0% in June, matching expectations.

    • China new home prices in June drop at fastest monthly pace in eight months:

      • New home prices in China fell 0.3% m/m based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, worse than 0.2% drop in prior month. It is the fastest monthly drop since Oct-2024, highlighting challenges in property sector despite multiple rounds of supportive measures. New home prices were down 3.2% y/y, compared with 3.5% drop in May. Bloomberg added values of second-hand homes fell 0.6% m/m, biggest drop since Sep-2024. NBS statistician said new home and second-hand home prices in June were all lower than in May across top-tier and lower-tier cities. Price drops narrowed on annual basis. Investors closely monitoring any further signs of policy support. Recall State Council pledged in meeting in mid-June to conduct nationwide survey of land for development and property projects under construction to improve policy effectiveness. Meanwhile some economists believe Beijing to hold off any major stimulus for now to preserve policy space if trade tensions with US flare up again.

    • Nvidia says it expects license to resume selling H20 AI chips to China:

      • Nvidia (NVDA) said it intends to resume sales of its H20 AI accelerator chip to China, release new graphics processing unit (GPU), after receiving assurances from Washington it would receive export license (SCMP). White House's move to grant license seen as significant reversal following earlier curbs, comes after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump last week, visits Beijing this week. Huang said Nvidia to begin shipping "new, fully complaint" China-specific variant soon. Bloomberg cited analyst saying news good for Nvidia, AI semiconductor supply chain, China tech platforms building AI capabilities. Likely to boost US-China relations too amid ongoing negotiations over broader tariffs. Nvidia had taken $4.5B write down after US initially tightened export controls to China which banned sales of H20 chip (FT). Nasdaq futures higher in pre-market trading Tuesday, Hang Seng technology stocks gapped higher at Hong Kong open before settling back.

    • Japan government bond yield rises to 16-year high as fiscal worries mount:

      • Japan's 10Y government bond yield rose to glance 1.6% Tuesday, highest since Oct-08, on concerns upper house election Sunday could see ruling LDP defeated or coalition government rejigged. Opposition parties, ruling LDP have campaigned on populist promises including cash handouts, consumption-orientated tax cuts that will place further pressure on fiscal requirements (Bloomberg). 20Y yield jumped 2.65% in morning trade - highest since 1999; 30Y yield also at multi-year high 3.20%, 40Y yield reapproached highs set in May (Reuters). Investors fear Ishiba defeat Sunday could spark populist shift in coalition, even PM's resignation in worst case. June's decision to reduce super-long bond issuance not curbing rise in borrowing costs to date with economists saying appetite for selling bonds set to continue. Ministry of Finance buybacks could stabilize yields however FM Kato said Monday markets would decide yields, would refrain from comment on specific moves.

    • Japan ruling coalition's upper house election prospects looking increasingly grim:

      • Latest Kyodo opinion poll conducted Sun-Mon showed LDP on course to secure fewer than 40 out of the 125 contested seats in the upcoming upper house election, while coalition partner Komeito will struggle to defend their 14 up for grabs. Projections place the coalition's majority control of the house in delicate balance, requiring a combined 50 seats. Article noted such an outcome for the LDP would likely trigger calls for Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation. Asahi estimated LDP on track for the mid 30s, cutting the party's fate even finer. Furthermore, NHK's weekend poll found party support for LDP dropped 4.1 ppt to 24.0%. While still well ahead of other parties -- CDP in second place at 7.8% -- momentum clearly shifting against incumbents. Prospects for CDP mixed depending on the survey, while biggest gainers stand to be DPP and the up-and-coming populist party Sanseito, albeit coming from a low base. Growing support for minor parties has been a key feature in this election, posing further complications in policymaking via fragmentation. Key takeaway for markets will be fiscal policy risk as the coalition would be forced to acquiesce to opposition demands for more stimulus, including consumption tax cuts. Against this backdrop, Kyodo sources indicated Ishiba is seeking talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent possibly on Friday before Bessent is due to attend the Osaka expo.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +20.0% 300502.CH (Eoptolink Technology): guides H1 net income attributable CNY3.70-4.20B vs year-ago CNY865.1M

      • +13.6% 3387.JP (create restaurants holdings): reports Q1 earnings; to implement 2-for-1 stock split

      • +1.9% 4502.JP (Takeda Pharmaceutical): TAK-861 meets all primary and secondary endpoints in two phase 3 studies in narcolepsy type 1

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.9% 6855.HK (Ascentage Pharma): launches HK$1.51B placement at HK$68.60/share

      • -3.7% 1772.HK (Ganfeng Lithium Group): guides H1 net income attributable (CNY300-550M)

      • -2.9% 6865.HK (Flat Glass Group): guides H1 net income attributable CNY230-280M vs year-ago CNY1.50B

      • -1.4% 8801.JP (Mitsui Fudosan): reports June revenue of built-to-order house (21%) y/y

      • -1.1% 2331.HK (Li Ning): reports Q2 operational update; retail sell-through of LI-NING POS (excluding LI-NING YOUNG) up low-single-digit y/y

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Q2 GDP +5.2% y/y vs consensus +5.1% and +5.4% in prior quarter

          • GDP +1.1% q/q vs consensus +0.9% and +1.2% in prior quarter

        • June industrial production +6.8% y/y vs consensus +5.6% and +5.8% in prior month

          • Retail sales +4.8% y/y vs consensus +5.2% and +6.4% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +2.8% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and +3.7% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.0% vs consensus 5.0% and 5.0% in prior month

        • June new house prices (0.3%) m/m vs (0.2%) in prior month

          • House prices (3.2%) y/y vs (3.5%) in prior month

      • Australia

        • July Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index 93.1 vs 92.6 in June

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 218.40 or +0.55% to 39678.02

      • Hang Seng: 386.80 or +1.60% to 24590.12

      • Shanghai Composite: (14.65) or (0.42%) to 3505.00

      • Shenzhen Composite: (1.34) or (0.06%) to 2118.67

      • ASX200: 59.90 or +0.70% to 8630.30

      • KOSPI: 13.25 or +0.41% to 3215.28

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 147.7190

      • $-KRW: (5.26) or (0.38%) to 1377.2300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.32% to 0.6570

      • $-INR: (0.20) or (0.23%) to 85.7875

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.08% to 7.1729

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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