Jul 16 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished lower extending losses into the close. Telecom, Financials and Insurance the best performers. Tech, Autos, Construction & Metals, and Chemicals the biggest laggards. US equities also lower in midday trading. Treasuries mixed with curve bull steepening; 30-year bond weaker, now at 5.05%. Dollar index down 0.2%. Gold up 0.6%. Bitcoin futures up 2.7%, off best levels. WTI crude off 1.2%.
Several moving pieces with attention on Fed headlines amidst claims from White House official that Trump to fire Fed Chair Powell soon. Headline has weighed heavily on the dollar. In latest tariff rhetoric, US Treasury Secretary Bessent downplayed the urgency of the US-China tariff truce expiry of 12-Aug noting the deadline was flexible and talks were going well. Confirmation still pending with still no formal statement released on the Vietnam deal. BoE's Bailey cautioned that tariffs may fragment world economy reducing activity. EU member states reportedly closer to deploying anti-coercion instrument if Trump applies 30% tariffs.
Early focus in Europe was on UK inflation data, which came in above consensus. Headline at 3.6% versus 3.4% expected and core at 3.7% versus 3.6% expected. European earnings outlook worsened following latest Trump tariff threats. French far-right leader Le Pen vowed to bring down PM Bayrou's government unless he reverses recent budget plan. In the UK, British finance minister Reeves pledged to ease regulation further and announced measures to boost finance sector. Today, difficult negotiations on EU's next seven-year budget begin in earnest. German Bundesbank sees economy stagnating in Q2.
On the earnings front, ASML Holding (ASML.NA) Q2 orders surged to €5.5B, driven by AI chip demand, but said may not achieve growth in 2026. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB.A.SS) beat profit forecasts despite lower interest rates. Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) iron ore shipments dip, eyes Pilbara expansion. Renault (RNO.FP) delivers H1 revenue a touch ahead of consensus, however cuts FY profit forecast amid market slump. Richemont (CFR.SW) reported beat on Q1 jewelry sales.
In other corporate news, AE Systems (BA.LN) eyes new Eurofighter Typhoon orders from export markets. Daimler Truck (DTG.GR) to lay off 2,000 workers amid weak US, Mexico demand. Diageo (DGE.LN) announces that Debra Crew has stepped down as CEO with immediate effect, by mutual agreement. DNO (DNO.NO) temporarily suspends production at Kurdistan fields following explosions with Genel Energy (GENL.LN) shares coming under pressure as a result and Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP.LN) also temporarily suspending production at its Shaikan Field operations due to the explosions in the vicinity.
In M&A headlines, Stellantis (STLAM.IM) to discontinue its hydrogen fuel cell technology JV Symbio and has initiated discussions with the shareholders Faurecia (FRVIA.FP) and Michelin (MC.FP). BPER Banca (BPE.IM) announces final result of offer to acquire Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BPSO.IM) confirms provisional results. Media reports Nippon (5401.JP) and Mitsui (8031.JP) expected to assist Peabody Energy (BTU) in acquiring Anglo American's (AAL.LN) Queensland coal mines. Further in market rumors, shares of Essentra (ESNT.LN) moved higher midday on renewed takeover speculation, but have since reversed. Handelsblatt reports Rheinmetall (RHM.GR) is exploring sale of auto division 'Power Systems', in discussions with One Equity Partners as potential buyer.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Insurance +0.52%, Financial Svcs +0.40%, Telecom +0.23%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.15%, Media +0.03%, Utilities +0.02%, Health Care (0.07%), Basic Resources (0.16%), Food & Beverage (0.23%), Banks (0.27%), Travel & Leisure (0.31%), Retail (0.34%)
Underperformers:
Technology (2.18%), Autos & Parts (1.81%), Construct & Mtls (1.39%), Chemicals (1.34%), Oil & Gas (0.82%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.68%), Real Estate (0.61%)
Macro:
Geopolitics:
UK:
France:
Germany:
Germany strikes deal with EU for flexible fiscal plan to boost investment: Politico
Politics:
Trade & Tariffs:
Central Banks:
ECB's Nagel calls for "steady hand" amid Trump's tariff threat, complicating EU decision-making: Yahoo Finance
BoE's Bailey warns of harm to households worldwide from US trade wars, urges cooperation (Bloomberg, Reuters)
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+25.0% ALSTW.FP (StreamWIDE €55.00, +11.00) -- sales
+16.6% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical SEK1.00, +0.14) -- completes pre-IND meeting with the FDA for arfolitixorin
+13.6% HBC.NO (Hofseth BioCare NOK2.01,+0.24) -- shares halted; ProGo award
+13.5% BAR.BB (Barco €14.26, +1.70) -- H1 EPS €0.27 vs FactSet €0.20 [1 est]
+13.5% CHRT.LN (Cohort £17.48, +2.08) -- earnings
+12.3% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,280.00, +250.00) -- upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS
+10.2% CRW.LN (Craneware £24.80, +2.30) -- FY Trading Update: expects 12% increase in adjusted EBITDA to over $65M; FactSet $63.2M [4 est, $62.7-63.6M]
+9.3% ENEA.SS (Enea AB SEK74.40, +6.30) -- earnings; buyback
+8.6% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK12.44, +0.98) -- publishes results of paediatric study IsoCOMFORT (SED002) in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
+6.2% BMY.LN (Bloomsbury Publishing £5.17, +0.30) -- AGM trading update: expects FY results in line with consensus expectations
+5.4% BERG.B.SS (Bergman & Beving SEK313.50, +16.00) -- Q1 adj EPS SEK2.05 vs FactSet SEK2.65 [4 est, SEK2.10-3.29]
+5.1% CEC.GR (CECONOMY €3.89, +0.19) -- prelim Q3 EBIT (€31M); guides FY adjusted ~EBIT €375M vs FactSet €366M [6 est, €359-378.1M]
+5.1% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,114.50, +54.00) -- solid AuM development in H1 and reconfirms FY25 guidance
+4.9% ALMB.DC (Alm. Brand DKK18.27, +0.85) -- Q2 EPS DKK0.20 vs FactSet DKK0.26 [5 est, DKK0.20-0.30]; raises pre-tax profit guidance ex-items by DKK100M to DKK1.73-1.93B
+3.4% ICG.LN (Intermediate Capital Group £20.44, +0.67) -- Q1 Trading Update: AUM of $123B, fee-earning AUM of $82B, AUM not yet earning fees of $19B
+2.7% PRTC.LN (PureTech Health £1.37, +0.04) -- CEO steps down today
+2.4% MIPS.SS (MIPS SEK452.60, +10.80) -- Q2 EPS SEK1.20 vs FactSet SEK1.22 [6 est, SEK0.99-1.34]
+1.7% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.14, -0.00) -- favorable ruling from French Court of Cassation in legal dispute with Negma Group
+0.8% DWL.LN (Dowlais Group Plc £0.72, +0.01) -- American Axle (AXL) shareholders approve proposed combination with Dowlais Group
+0.6% DGE.LN (Diageo £18.99, +0.11) -- Debra Crew has stepped down as CEO with immediate effect, by mutual agreement
Notable Decliners
-29.2% DDRIL.NO (Dolphin Drilling AS NOK0.07, -0.03) -- updates on private placement and refinancing
-18.5% RNO.FP (Renault €33.63, -7.62) -- prelim H1 revenue €27.60B vs FactSet €27.58B [5 est, €27.34-27.76B]; lowers FY25 guidance
-17.3% NIL.B.SS (Nilörngruppen SEK56.00, -11.70) -- earnings
-16.1% BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost NOK395.80, -75.80) -- preliminary Q2 operational EBIT of ~ DKK 65M
-16.0% ITAB.SS (ITAB Shop Concept SEK19.12, -3.63) -- earnings
-14.9% GNRO.FP (GeNeuro €0.04, -0.01) -- liquidation of subsidiary
-12.9% FPE3.GR (FUCHS SE €41.16, -6.10) -- prelim H1 EBIT €209.0M vs year-ago €218.0M; lowers FY25 guidance
-12.9% ONTEX.BB (Ontex Group €6.41, -0.95) -- Q2 operating income €13.9M vs year-ago (€3.1M); revises FY guidance lower
-12.8% MCB.LN (McBride £1.32, -0.19) -- FY trading update: group anticipates FY adjusted operating profit in line with expectations
-11.6% RECSI.NO (REC Silicon NOK2.20, -0.29) -- issues further update on the financial situation; to call EGM during the week starting 4-Aug
-11.4% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €625.80, -80.30) -- Q2 EPS €5.90 vs consensus €5.24; guides Q3 and FY25
-9.0% SHB.A.SS (Svenska Handelsbanken SEK114.15, -11.25) -- Q2 EPS SEK2.77 vs FactSet SEK2.97
-7.6% ORX.SS (Orexo SEK18.72, -1.53) -- Q2 EPS (SEK1.15) including item and unclear if comparable to FactSet (SEK0.37) [1 est]; reaffirms 2025 financial outlook
-7.4% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €2.86, -0.23) -- Q2 EPS €0.06 vs FactSet €0.05 [6 est, €0.00-0.09]
-6.5% ATEA.NO (Atea NOK146.00, -10.20) -- Q2 net income NOK157M vs FactSet NOK196.5M [4 est, NOK175.1-210M]
-6.5% BRG.NO (Borregaard NOK194.00, -13.50) -- Q2 EPS NOK2.56 vs FactSet NOK2.59 [8 est, NOK2.07-2.81]
-6.2% GENL.LN (Genel Energy £0.61, -0.04) -- DNO announcement on suspension of production at Kurdistan Fields following explosions
-6.2% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.00, -0.53) -- to exit hydrogen fuel cell technology JV Symbio
-4.2% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €9.53, -0.41)
-6.1% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF51.90, -3.40) -- holder Rudolf Maag offers 1M shares via UBS -- Bloomberg, citing terms
-5.4% B3.SS (B3 Consulting Group SEK56.50, -3.20) -- earnings
-5.1% ESNT.LN (Essentra £1.13, -0.06) -- Essentra shares move higher on renewed takeover speculation, we're told
-4.6% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.63, -0.08) -- suspends production at Shaikan Field operations due to explosions at number of oil fields in vicinity
-4.6% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €3.45, -0.17) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
-4.1% SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum SEK282.20, -12.00) -- Q2 adj EPS SEK2.36 vs consensus SEK1.68; keeps FY25 outlook unchanged
-4.0% ASKER.SS (Asker Healthcare Group SEK101.46, -4.22) -- downgraded to hold from buy at Nordea
-3.6% DNO.NO (DNO ASA NOK14.12, -0.53) -- suspension of production at Kurdistan Fields following explosions
-3.3% NSI.NA (NSI NV €23.25, -0.80) -- H1 EPRA EPS €0.99 vs year-ago €0.91
-3.2% WITH.FH (WithSecure €1.02, -0.03) -- earnings
-3.0% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK2.62, -0.08) -- Q2 EPS (NOK0.07) vs FactSet (NOK0.08) [6 est, (NOK0.10)-(0.06)]
-2.3% FAG.SS (Fagerhult Group SEK42.30, -1.00) -- acquires smart outdoor lighting company Capelon in Sweden; terms undisclosed
-2.3% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €208.00, -5.00) -- Q2 operational update: Europace transaction volume for mortgages +12% y/y
-1.8% ELN.IM (El.En. €11.26, -0.21) -- completes sale of majority stake in Penta Laser Zhejiang Co., Ltd to Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (post EU close 15-Jul)
-1.5% SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken SEK162.15, -2.55) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK4.08 vs consensus SEK3.80
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Sligro Food Group (SLIGR.NA), Nedap NV (NEDAP.NA)
Finland: Fiskars (FSKRS.FH), Alma Media (ALMA.FH), Terveystalo (TTALO.FH), Scanfil (SCANFL.FH), Atria (ATRAV.FH), Verkkokauppa.com (VERK.FH), SSH Communications Security (SSH1V.FH),
France: Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP)
Norway: Tomra Systems (TOM.NO), TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. (TGS.NO), Komplett (KOMPL.NO), Hexagon Purus (HPUR.NO)
Southern Europe: Logista Integral (LOG.SM), SeSa (SES.IM)
Sweden: Investor (INVE.B.SS), Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS), Volvo (VOLV.B.SS), EQT (EQT.SS), Assa Abloy (ASSA.B.SS), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS), Essity (ESSITY.B.SS), Evolution (EVO.SS), Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS), Trelleborg (TREL.B.SS), AarhusKarlshamn (AAK.SS), Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS), Camurus (CAMX.SS), Vitrolife (VITR.SS), Cibus Nordic Real Estate (CIBUS.SS), Cloetta (CLA.B.SS), Ratos (RATO.B.SS), Scandi Standard (SCST.SS), VBG Group (VBG.B.SS), Alligo (ALLIGO.B.SS), Bonava (BONAV.B.SS), Cint Group (CINT.SS), VNV Global (VNV.SS), KlaraBo (KLARA.B.SS), Hansa Biopharma (HNSA.SS), PowerCell Sweden (PCELL.SS), Midsona (MSON.B.SS), Prevas (PREV.B.SS), Softronic (SOF.B.SS), CTEK (CTEK.SS), Pricer (PRIC.B.SS), Embellence Group (EMBELL.SS), Viaplay Group (VPLAY.A.SS)
Switzerland: Novartis (NOVN.SW), ABB Limited (ABBN.SW), SFS Group (SFSN.SW), DKSH Holding (DKSH.SW)
UK: Ocado Group (OCDO.LN), Ilika (IKA.LN)
Other: Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Renk Group (R3NK.GR)
France: Stef (STF.FP), Maurel et Prom (MAU.FP), Abéo (ABEO.FP), ATEME (ATEME.FP)
Southern Europe: Ferrovial (FER.SM) 407 ETR H1 results
UK: Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE.LN), Wise (WISE.LN), Diploma (DPLM.LN), QinetiQ Group (QQ.LN), Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone May Trade Balance €16.2B vs consensus €13.0B and prior revised €11.1B from €9.9B
UK Jun
CPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior +3.4%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.2%
Core +3.7% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and prior +3.5%
RPI +4.4% y/y vs consensus +4.3% and prior +4.3%; +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.2%
Italy
Jun CPI +1.7% y/y vs preliminary +1.7%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%
EU Harmonised: +1.8% y/y vs preliminary 1.7%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%
May Trade Balance €6.16B vs consensus €2.9B and prior revised €2.45B from €2.48B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.83) or (1.25%) to $65.69
€-$ +0.0073 or +0.63% to 1.1675
£-$ +0.0072 or +0.54% to 1.3456
€-£ +0.0008 to 0.8677
S&P 500 (0.27%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.22%
DAX: +20.59%
CAC: +4.62%
MIB: +16.31%
Stoxx 600: +6.74%
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