Jul 21 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower. Last week, the Stoxx 600 ended broadly flat, as increased tariff threats from US President Trump were balanced by broadly better earnings reports. Fresh all-time highs for US indices also helped support sentiment.
Asian equities mostly higher Monday. Greater China markets higher with infrastructure stocks rallying after Tibet dam construction greenlit by authorities. Press discussing fallout from Japan's ruling coalition having lost its upper house majority in Sunday's election.
Trade negotiations in flux less than two weeks before 1-Aug, which Commerce Secretary Lutnick reiterated is a hard deadline. FT reported over the weekend, citing sources, that Trump reportedly seeking 15-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods. Bloomberg reports EU envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump.
In the UK, focus on Rightmove's latest House Price Index (link ), which shows average new seller asking prices drop by 1.2% this month to £373,709. While there's usually a seasonal dip in prices in July, Rightmove notes this is the largest monthly price drop at this time of year recorded by Rightmove over more than twenty years of data. Also of note, Rightmove has reforecast its property price prediction for 2025 from +4% to +2%. With mortgage rates falling and two more Bank Rate cuts still expected in 2025, it says the overall outlook for the second half of the year remains positive.
Meanwhile, according to the Deloitte index data, UK consumer confidence fell by -2.6 percentage points in Q2 of 2025, representing the first marked decline in confidence since October 2022, when inflation peaked at its highest rate in 40 years, and the lowest confidence level since Q1 2024. This was driven by a decline in all six measures of confidence of the Deloitte Consumer Tracker index, which is based on responses from 3,200 UK consumers aged 18+ between 13 and 16 June 2025. Sentiment towards job security saw the biggest decline (-4.8 percentage points) as well as consumer confidence about job opportunities and career progression (-3.9 percentage points) following the increase in employer costs and weakening of the labour market.
This week sees ECB interest rate decision, EU-Japan and EU-China summits, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Jul flash manufacturing/services PMIs and Germany Jul Ifo survey as well as earnings/updates from the likes of ASM International (ASM.NA), BNP Paribas (BNP.FP), Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Nestle (NESN.SW), Roche (ROG.SW), TotalEnergies (TTE.FP), UniCredit (UCG.IM), Vivendi (VIV.FP), Vodafone (VOD.LN) and Volkswagen (VOW3.GR).
Ryanair (RYA.ID) the notable company reporting this morning. The carrier has reported better than expected Q1 net income, at €819.9M vs StreetAccount consensus €682.2M.
Elsewhere, German Chancellor Merz meets with representatives of the "Made for Germany" business initiative, whilst hosting Norway's PM Støre in the evening. A joint press conf is planned afterward.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance Hardens -- Bloomberg
UK Jul house price index +0.1% y/y vs prior +0.8%; reducing its price forecast for 2025 from +4% to +2% - Rightmove
UK consumer confidence falls for the first time since Q3 2022 - Deloitte
Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries -- Reuters , citing sources
Top company news
Earnings/updates
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.77 vs FactSet €0.60 [6 est, €0.45-0.66] (€23.12); says remains too early to provide meaningful FY26 PAT guidance
BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF101.3M vs FactSet CHF99.2M [2 est, CHF98.0-100.4M]
COV.FP (Covivio) -- reports H1 adj. EPRA EPS €2.38 vs year-ago €2.24; raises FY recurring net result (adj. EPRA earnings) guidance
IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics) -- provides business update and informs that the publication of Q2 earnings is postponed to 27-Aug
Also reporting today
Earnings:
Southern Europe: Galp Energia (GALP.PL), NOS (NOS.PL)
UK: MONY Group (MONY.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Oeneo (SBT.FP)
Other: Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RU)
M&A
OPAP.GA (Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics) -- acquires the remaining 15.51% stake in Stoiximan for ~ €191.6M on a cash free debt free basis (post EU close 18-Jul)
BAS.GR (BASF SE) -- BASF asks shortlisted bidders for coatings business to submit offers next month - Bloomberg
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- EC sends Statement of Objections to Vivendi for possible breach of EU merger rules regarding acquisition of Lagardère before merger approval
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- takes note of the Statement of Objections issued by the EC and denies its claims
PRX.NA (Prosus) -- reportedly offers to sell down 27% stake in Delivery Hero to address EU scrutiny over Just Eat Takeaway deal - Bloomberg
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- considering selling its Italian operations - Corriere della Sera
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- reportedly in talks with advisors to plan the refinancing of its sports assets portfolio valued at ~ €9B - Sky News
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- to acquire Eppendorf's direct business in Thailand; terms undisclosed
4FZ.GR (Orbia Advance Corp SAB de CV) -- Supreme Industries agrees to acquire Indian piping business from Wavin Industries for $30.0M (INR25.86B) in cash
PHLL.LN (Petershill Partners) -- sells stake in Harvest Partners for a total nominal consideration of $561M
AGI.AU (Ainsworth Game Technology) -- major holder accuses company of undervaluing American property assets by over 40% - Australian Financial Review
GHC.IM (Garofalo Health Care) -- acquires Casa di Cura Città di Roma S.p.A. for ~ €20.7M (enterprise value)
543245.IN (Gland Pharma) -- Brookfield, EQT shortlisted to buy Gland Pharma from Fosun Group - Economic Times
Cedar Pacific seeking to sell student accommodation platform UniLodge - The Australian
Healthcare
HLUN.B.DC (H. Lundbeck) -- Otsuka and Lundbeck issue statement on FDA advisory committee meeting results for sNDA of Rexulti in combo with setraline for PTSD
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA issues CRL for Columvi in combination with GemOx for treatment of people with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; data do not provide sufficient evidence to support proposed second-line DLBCL indication in US patient population
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche announces pivotal phase IIb ALIENTO study investigating astegolimab met its primary endpoint
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- European Commission grants conditional approval to EZMEKLY in adult and pediatric patients with NF1-PN
4578.JP (Otsuka Holdings) -- FDA panel votes against the efficacy data of Rexulti in combo with setraline for PTSD
524715.IN (Sun Pharmaceutical Industries) -- phase 3 clinical studies evaluating Tildrakizumab 100 mg (ILUMYA) in active psoriatic arthritis meets primary endpoint
IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics) -- IRLAB reports results of rights issue
Other
DGE.LN (Diageo) -- interim CEO Nik Jhangiani hoping to take job on permanently - London Times
WPP.LN (WPP Group) -- has "lost a lot of business" to Publicis - Mail on Sunday
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- HSBC having difficulty finding new chair - FT
LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group) -- In response to growing demand from small investors, London Stock Exchange may introduce 24-hour trading - FT
DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding) -- Daimler Truck considering exit from manufacturing in China amid "crazy" global down cycle - FT, citing CEO
KCR.FH (Konecranes) -- Super Terminais orders three additional Konecranes Gottwald ESP.10 mobile harbor cranes to expand Amazon River operations
RECSI.NO (REC Silicon) -- enters $6.5M short term loan agreement with shareholder Hanwha to continue operations into first week of August
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $131.1M, (12.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ABBN.SW (ABB) -- to buy from neutral at Citi
ALIV.SS (Autoliv) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
KBX.GR Knorr-Bremse upgraded to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
DOV.IM (doValue) -- to outperform from neutral at Mediobanca
ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
WRT1V.FH (Wartsila) -- to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
SCHP.SW (Schindler Holding) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
ALIV.SS (Autoliv) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
SHOT.SS (Scandic Hotels Group) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- to underperform from neutral at Autonomous Research
NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
TOKMAN.FH (Tokmanni Group) -- to sell from hold at DNB Carnegie, to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, to hold from buy at SEB
DYVOX.SS (Dynavox Group) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
TFI.FP (TF1) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis) -- to neutral from buy at JB Capital Markets
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 39819.11 (Japan closed for Marine Day holiday)
Hang Seng +0.37% to 24917.67
Shanghai Composite +0.66% to 3557.67
S&P futures +7.8 vs prior close of 6334.8
€-$ +0.0006 or +0.05% to 1.1636
$-¥ +0.32 or +0.22% to 148.30
€-¥ +0.40 or +0.23% to 172.52
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE