Jul 24 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished mostly higher, French CAC underperformed. Banks, telecom and healthcare among the best performers while food/beverage, tech and basic resources main laggards. US equity markets mixed in midday trading. Treasuries mixed with curve flattening. Dollar index up 0.1%. Gold down 0.6%. Bitcoin futures up 1%. WTI crude up 1.6%.
ECB policy decision took centerstage midday in Europe. Governing Council left key policy settings on hold at 2.00%, as expected, with inflation at target and no clarity yet on trade tariffs. Statement maintained the data dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. It highlighted that inflation is currently at the 2% target and incoming data broadly in line with its previous assessment on the outlook. It pointed out that domestic price pressures have continued to ease, with wages growing more slowly. Said the economy has so far proven resilient in a challenging global environment, though noted exceptional uncertainty.
On the data front, Eurozone flash PMI for July edges up with composite reading at 11-month high at 51.0 versus consensus 50.8 and prior 50.6 with both manufacturing and services sector improving. UK PMI showed weakening in growth momentum in July with composite reading at two-month low of 51.0 versus consensus 51.8 and prior 52.0. Services PMI also at two-month low of 51.2 versus 52.9 forecast and prior 52.8, while manufacturing PMI at six-month peak of 48.2 versus consensus 48.0 and prior 47.7. German GfK consumer confidence missed expectations; reading for August registered -21.5 versus consensus -19.2 and prior -20.3. GfK highlighted rise in income expectations, but economic outlook indicator saw notable deterioration. French business confidence in line with forecast, though down from June reading. Reports from UK housing market insiders show prices will barely rise this year.
Sentiment was helped by trade deal optimism. Reports after Wednesday's European close that US and EU nearing a deal involving a 15% tariff, including autos, and both sides waiving tariffs on certain key products. Reports said Brussels could agree to the deal to avoid 30% tariff as of 1-Aug, though up from the 10% temporary tariff on goods since talks between the EU and US began in April. Both sides could waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits, and medical devices, while auto tariffs would fall to 15% from current 27.5%.
Amidst a busy earnings calendar, Banks/Financials the best performers amid strong Q2 results with the Stoxx 600 Banks Index hitting its highest level since 2008. Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) surging after Q2 net profit beat, 10.1% ROTE as litigation costs fall. BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) also higher on Q2 beat. Bankinter (BKT.SM) also higher after Q2 beat with strong NII and asset quality, while Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM) delivered Q2 PBT beat and ROTE target raised and Lloyds (LLOY.LN) higher after solid Q2, but cautious outlook. Telecom also higher with Deutsche Telecom (DTE.GR) boosted by T-Mobile US (TMUS) strong Q2 results, while BT Group (BT.A.LN) up on CFO appointment, reconfirmed FY and multi-year financial outlook. Health Care stronger too with Roche (ROG.SW) delivering H1 beat, strong Pharma sales offsetting Diagnostics weakness, while Bachem Holding (BANB.SW) surges on blowout H1 and guidance upgrade and Galderma Group (GALD.SW) up on strong revenue and EBITDA beat and raised guidance. Technology the biggest decliner with STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP) the biggest drag after booking quarterly loss and cautious Q3 guide despite revenue growth. Basic Resources another big decliner following Acerinox (ACX.SM) booking Q2 loss and demand hit by tariffs and geopolitics. Food & Beverage also one of the biggest decliners after Nestle (NESN.SW) Q2 sales miss and vitamins business review though did highlight pricing headwinds.
In M&A news, Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC) confirms in discussions with Nordic Capital and Permira regarding a potential takeover offer for Bavarian Nordic and CECONOMY AG (CEC.GR) confirms advanced negotiations with JD.com (JD) regarding a possible public takeover of CECONOMY by JD. Saipem (SPM.IM) and Subsea7 (SUBC.NO) entered into a binding merger agreement, with the completion expected in H2 26. Media reports Volkswagen (VOW3.GR), Porsche (P911.GR) are putting several units up for sale to generate cash. Further in the press, Santander (SAN.SM) reportedly bids to acquire Mercedes (MBG.GR) leasing subsidiary Athlon, valued at €1.00B.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +2.39%, Banks +1.64%, Media +1.09%, Health Care +1.09%, Retail +0.61%
Underperformers:
Food & Beverage (1.19%), Technology (0.85%), Basic Resources (0.81%), Oil & Gas (0.61%), Utilities (0.38%), Real Estate (0.18%), Insurance (0.10%), Financial Svcs +0.00%, Travel & Leisure +0.01%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.02%, Autos & Parts +0.03%, Chemicals +0.03%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.07%, Construct & Mtls +0.14%
Macro:
ECB:
UK:
UK consumer confidence falls as inflation and economic contraction bite (RetailGazette)
UK car production hits 70-year low amid tariff fears and plant closure (BBC)
UK welcomes nearly £6B in new investment and export wins PM signs trade deal with India
Geopolitics:
EU nears 15% tariff deal with US to avoid trade war but readies retaliation if deal fails (FT, Politico, Reuters, Reuters)
Trump signals 15-50% tariffs as global trade tensions rise (Bloomberg)
EU-China summit highlights trade imbalances and tensions (Reuters, Reuters)
Trump's tariff threats fail to advance Russia-Ukraine peace talks (link)
Zelenskyy's anti-corruption power grab sparks Kyiv protests (FT, Politico)
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+31.1% BANB1.SW (Bachem Holding CHF75.00, +17.80) -- H1 earnings
+21.0% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK233.00, +40.50) -- confirms discussions with Nordic Capital and Permira regarding a potential takeover offer for Bavarian Nordic
+13.3% ITV.LN (ITV £0.88, +0.10) -- H1 earnings
+12.4% KEMPOWR.FH (Kempower €17.54, +1.93) -- Q2 earnings
+12.1% NESTE.FH (Neste €14.72, +1.59) -- Q2 earnings
+12.0% CEC.GR (CECONOMY €4.20, +0.45) -- confirms advanced negotiations with JD.com (JD)
+10.4% BT.A.LN (BT Group £2.20, +0.21) -- Q1 revenue; new CFO
+10.0% RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser £55.42, +5.02) -- H1 earnings; raises FY guidance; £1.0B share buyback
+9.7% MCOV.B.SS (Medicover SEK282.50, +25.00) -- Q2 earnings
+9.1% DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €28.82, +2.41) -- Q2 earnings
+8.9% HWDN.LN (Howden Joinery Group £9.10, +0.74) -- H1 earnings
+8.7% VCP.LN (Victoria £0.80, +0.06) -- FY earnings
+8.7% BOKU.LN (BOKU £2.26, +0.18) -- trading update
+8.2% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £2.65, +0.20) -- H1 earnings
+7.9% OPM.FP (OPmobility €13.33, +0.98) -- H1 earnings
+7.6% GALD.SW (Galderma Group CHF133.50, +9.40) -- H1 earnings
+7.6% IGG.LN (IG Group Holdings £11.40, +0.81) -- FY earnings
+7.4% ABVX.FP (Abivax €58.30, +4.00) -- prices 10.2M ADS at $64.00/each
+7.3% AAF.LN (Airtel Africa £1.96, +0.13) -- Q1 earnings
+7.1% DWS.GR (DWS Group €52.70, +3.50) -- Q2 earnings
+7.0% SUN.SW (Sulzer CHF159.60, +10.40) -- H1 earnings
+6.8% BKT.SM (Bankinter €12.38, +0.79) -- Q2 earnings
+5.4% DEBS.LN (Debenhams Group £0.20, +0.01) -- continues to review its debt facilities, in ordinary course of business
+5.1% ROVI.SM (Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. €57.15, +2.75) -- H1 earnings
+5.1% VALMT.FH (Valmet €31.14, +1.52) -- DNB Carnegie and SEB upgrades
+5.0% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £12.52, +0.60) -- trading update
+4.7% AB.FP (AB Science €1.30, +0.06) -- approval from several European countries to initiate the confirmatory phase 3 study of masitinib in ALS
+4.2% BAMNB.NA (Koninklijke BAM Groep €7.76, +0.32) -- H1 earnings
+4.1% ACOMO.NA (ACOMO NV €22.75, +0.90) -- H1 earnings
+4.0% GENO.SS (Genovis SEK28.50, +1.10) -- expands its license agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific
+3.4% RCH.LN (Reach £0.78, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+3.0% PIHLIS.FH (Pihlajalinna €15.50, +0.45) -- Q2 earnings
+3.0% BGO.LN (Bango £0.86, +0.03) -- trading update
+2.7% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €127.00, +3.35) -- Q2 earnings
+2.6% SUBC.NO (Subsea 7 NOK205.60, +5.20) -- contract; enter into a binding merger agreement, completion expected in H2 26
+2.4% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £5.30, +0.13) -- trading update
Notable Decliners
-31.1% ALOKW.FP (Groupe OKwind €1.46, -0.66) -- H1 revenue; TPICAP Midcap downgrade
-26.3% TET.LN (Treatt £1.86, -0.67) -- trading update; lowers FY guidance
-22.8% IOM.LN (iomart Group £0.22, -0.07) -- FY earnings
-18.7% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF18.78, -4.32) -- H1 earnings
-16.6% STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics €22.50, -4.49) -- Q2 earnings
-15.2% JDG.LN (Judges Scientific £67.00, -12.00) -- trading update; lowers FY guidance
-13.8% RF.FP (Eurazeo €55.70, -8.95) -- H1 earnings
-13.8% AALB.NA (Aalberts €27.34, -4.36) -- H1 earnings
-12.5% VONN.SW (Vontobel Holding CHF60.00, -8.60) -- H1 earnings
-11.5% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.03, -0.00) -- receives delisting notice from Nasdaq; intends to request hearing
-10.5% AAD.GR (Amadeus FiRe €68.50, -8.00) -- prelim H1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-10.2% GLPG.NA (Galapagos €25.52, -2.90) -- H1 earnings; KBC downgrade
-10.0% CMBN.SW (Cembra Money Bank CHF91.95, -10.25) -- H1 earnings
-9.5% MTG.SW (Meier Tobler Group CHF37.45, -3.95) -- H1 earnings
-9.3% ANCR.LN (Animalcare Group £2.63, -0.27) -- prelim H1 earnings; Singer Capital Markets downgrade
-9.3% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK10.20, -1.05) -- Q2 earnings
-8.9% ITP.FP (Interparfums €31.92, -3.12) -- H1 earnings
-8.7% AOF.GR (ATOSS Software €127.40, -12.20) -- Q2 earnings
-7.7% CALN.SW (Calida Holding CHF14.10, -1.18) -- H1 earnings
-6.9% SFR.LN (Severfield £0.32, -0.02) -- FY earnings; Singer Capital Markets upgrade
-5.8% MONC.IM (Moncler €47.72, -2.96) -- Q2 earnings
-5.5% VSVS.LN (Vesuvius £3.66, -0.21) -- trading update
-4.7% ACX.SM (Acerinox €10.27, -0.51) -- Q2 earnings
-4.6% NESN.SW (Nestle CHF74.14, -3.61) -- H1 earnings; to launch strategic review of Vitamins, Minerals and Supplements
-3.3% ELCO.LN (Eleco £1.75, -0.06) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Palfinger (PAL.AV)
Benelux: Elia Group (ELI.BB), Warehouses de Pauw (WDP.BB), Cofinimmo (COFB.BB), Proximus (PROX.BB), Signify (LIGHT.NA), Heijmans (HEIJM.NA)
Finland: Kalmar (KALMAR.FH), Vaisala (VAIAS.FH), Yit (YIT.FH)
France: Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP), Sopra Steria Group (SOP.FP), Vallourec (VK.FP), Burelle (BUR.FP), Maisons du Monde (MDM.FP)
Germany: Volkswagen (VOW3.GR), TRATON (8TRA.GR), FORVIA HELLA (HLE.GR)
Italy: Eni (ENI.IM), Sogefi (SGF.IM)
Portugal: Sonaecom (SNC.PL)
Spain: Almirall (ALM.SM), Neinor Homes (HOME.SM), Laboratorio Reig Jofre (RJF.SM)
Sweden: Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS), Svenska Cellulosa (SCA.B.SS), Loomis (LOOMIS.SS), Intrum (INTRUM.SS), Hoist Finance (HOFI.SS), MEKO AB (MEKO.SS), Acast (ACAST.SS)
Switzerland: SGS (SGSN.SW), Valiant Holding (VATN.SW), BB Biotech (BION.SW), APG SGA (APGN.SW), Bystronic (BYS.SW), Zehnder Group (ZEHN.SW), Schweiter Technologies (SWTQ.SW), Coltene Holding (CLTN.SW), Orell Füssli (OFN.SW), StarragTornos Group (STGN.SW)
UK: NatWest Group (NWG.LN), Rightmove (RMV.LN), Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LN), Knights Group Holdings (KGH.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP)
Data:
Economics:
UK Jul
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (30) vs consensus (28) and prior (33)
Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs consensus 48.0 and prior 47.7
Flash Services PMI 51.2 vs consensus 53.0 and prior 52.8
Eurozone Jul Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs consensus 49.7 and prior 49.5
Flash Services PMI 51.2 vs consensus 50.7 and prior 50.5
Germany
Aug GfK Consumer Confidence (21.5) vs consensus (19.2) and prior (20.3)
Jul Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs consensus 49.5 and prior 49.0
Flash Services PMI 50.1 vs consensus 50.0 and prior 49.7
France Jul
Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs consensus 48.5 and prior 48.1
Flash Services PMI 49.7 vs consensus 49.6 and prior 49.6
Manufacturing Business Climate 96 vs consensus 97 and prior revised to 97 from 96
Business Survey 96 vs consensus n/a and prior revised to 96 from 96
Spain
Q2 Unemployment Rate 10.3% vs consensus 10.7% and prior 11.4%
Jun PPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus (0.7%) and prior revised to (0.1%) from 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 25): +$0.98 or +1.50% to $66.23
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.1770
£-$ (0.0052) or (0.38%) to 1.3530
€-£ +0.0032 to 0.8699
S&P 500 +0.24%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +11.81%
DAX: +22.03%
CAC: +5.93%
MIB: +18.76%
Stoxx 600: +8.65%
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