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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.88%), Hang Seng (1.09%), Shanghai Composite (0.33%) as of 04:10 ET

Jul 25 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities were lower Friday. Japan benchmarks pulled back after two days of sharp gains fueled by US trade deal. Greater China dropped as Hang Seng snapped five-day winning streak and Shanghai Composite fell slightly below 3,600 level. Korea eked out mild gain, Taiwan flat and Australia weaker. India extending declines. US futures flat. Treasury yields also little changed. Dollar advanced and strongest against Korean won, yen and Aussie. Crude adding to earlier gains while gold retreating. Bitcoin hovering at two-week low.

    • Asian stocks slipped from recent highs as investors booked profits ahead of next week's 1-Aug US reciprocal tariffs deadline and key central bank meetings. In Japan, Tokyo CPI fell by more than expected with core inflation below 3% for first time since March. Utility subsidies a factor with ex-energy inflation unchanged. Recent Bloomberg survey showed economists split on timing of next rate hike between October and January though improving underlying inflation seen raising possibility of an increase in coming months. With announcement of US-Japan trade deal, BOJ may be able to make a decision on policy at an earlier stage. However, Nikkei also noted White House details of the tariff agreement with Japan include many points that are unclear or out of sync with Tokyo's explanation, including the effective date and the framework for Japanese investment in the US.

    • Attention turns to third round of US-China trade talks to be held in Stockholm early next week. With Bessent signaling extension of 12-Aug trade deadline, press citing this week's trade deals as positive indication on US-China trajectory. Trump also hailed Australia's relaxation of biosecurity restrictions on American beef. South Korea's top trade officials stressed need to reach trade deal before 1-Aug. Fatal clashes between Thailand and Cambodia continued for second day with baht adding to Thursday's loss.

    • Deadline of 27-Jul between CK Hutchison (1.HK) and BlackRock (BLK)-led consortium to sell 43 of the former's ports likely to be extended. Kia (000270.KS) took a hit of KRW786B ($570M) from US tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says TikTok will go dark if Beijing doesn't cede control to US with current deadline set on 17-Sep.

  • Digest:

    • US-Japan trade deal riddled with discrepancies, no clarity on start date:

      • Nikkei noted White House details of the tariff agreement with Japan include many points that are unclear or out of sync with Tokyo's explanation, including the effective date and the framework for Japanese investment in the US. While there was no start date in the US factsheet, Japan lead negotiator Akazawa told reporters Thursday the 15% reciprocal tariff will likely take effect 1-Aug. 'Hopes' the auto tariff reduction from 27.5% to 15% will be implemented as soon as possible. Government source said they expect the reduction in auto tariffs will come shortly after the reciprocal tariff. Various discrepancies stem from lack of an official term sheet. Japan plans to release a summary of shared understanding of terms as early as next week but not expected to be signed. Prime Minister Ishiba told reporters that an official signing of a written agreement is "not on the table now." Story cited a Fox News interview Wednesday with Treasury Secretary Bessent noting Japan's compliance will be evaluated quarterly, and if Trump is dissatisfied, "they will boomerang back to the 25% tariff rate." But Akazawa said he had "no recollection" of discussing that with Trump or members of his cabinet.

    • BOJ rate hike narrative back on track:

      • Some traction in the JGB market Friday from a Bloomberg report indicating BOJ officials may see conditions as ripe enough for another rate hike this year after the US-Japan trade deal announcement. Follows Nikkei QUICK's monthly BOJ Watcher survey (n=26) showing modal terminal rate forecasts remained at 1% (10), followed by 1.5% (6). Article highlighted some 80% of economists see a terminal rate of at least 1%, similar to the proportion in the June poll. Cited a mixture of views that offshoring of manufacturing accelerated by US tariffs stands to lower the terminal rate, while much of the scope for rate hikes depends on the longevity of the cyclical recovery, which is subject to debate. The report also highlighted views on implications from the ruling coalition's upper house election defeat, leading to takeaways that Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation will be inevitable. Panel was split evenly on whether this stands to affect monetary policy. Those answering in the affirmative pointed to increased complications if expansionary fiscal policy translates to higher bond yields. Skeptics noted election result not seen leading to an immediate change in government or coalition restructuring so monetary policy won't come under scrutiny, while BOJ will remain focused on the economy and unaffected by politics.

    • Tokyo core CPI, service PPI inflation ease:

      • Tokyo core CPI rose 2.9% y/y in July, slightly below consensus 3.0%. Follows 3.1% in the previous month, marking the softest since March. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation was steady at 3.1%, matching expectations. Energy contributions extended declines reflecting government subsidies, while water utility rates continued to tumble after government scrapped fees. Non-fresh food continued its grind higher despite rice prices slowing to 81.2% from 89.2%. Other notable areas include chocolate +49.7% and coffee +53.8% reflecting global prices. Core goods inflation slowed to 3.9% from 4.4% reflecting broad softening from durables to non-durables. Services inflation was steady at 2.1% though private sector edged lower. Recent softening in CPI so far consistent with services PPI, which rose 3.2% y/y in June, matching consensus, following revised 3.4% in the prior month and off the 3.5% peak in Mar/Apr. Deceleration mostly driven by hotels, building maintenance and advertising. Notably, services with high labor cost ratio saw inflation steady at 3.7%, with moderation only coming in low labor cost sectors. BOJ has repeatedly emphasized sustainable wage cost passthrough as a key pre-requisite for future rate hikes.

    • Asia auto earnings hit by tariffs, outlook uncertainties persist:

      • Kia (000270.KS) Q2 earnings missed StreetAccount consensus on operating and net profit while revenues were marginally higher. While US wholesale revenue grew 4% y/y, disclosed KRW786B ($570M) tariff hit. Follows yesterday's results from Hyundai (005380.KS) topping SA consensus on Q2 operating earnings and revenues, while missing on net income. Main drags on OP were higher incentives and global trade environment. On an earnings call, disclosed US tariff hit OP by KRW828B during the quarter and expects larger impacts in H2 if tariffs are not reduced (Nikkei). FY profit guidance unchanged for now but will update after the 1-Aug tariff deadline (Reuters). With a US trade deal yet to be reached, uncertainties prolonged after Washington canceled a meeting of finance and trade ministers slated for Friday due to a scheduling conflict with Treasury Secretary Bessent. South Korean officials met with Commerce Secretary Lutnick Thursday and reaffirmed aim to reach a mutually beneficial trade deal before 1-Aug (Yonhap). Mitsubishi (7211.JP) Q1 metrics well short of SA consensus, reporting an 84% drop in OP to JPY5.6B ($35.5M). Tariff effects were JPY14.4B, where sensitivity is high given lack of US assembly facilities (Nikkei). While the US-Japan trade deal was just announced, FY guidance left unchanged while they assess impact. CFO Kentaro Matsuoka noted intensifying competition in alternative export markets such as Europe and SE Asia. Expressed some encouragement towards the trade deal though remains cautious about broader impacts and "cannot view the situation optimistically."

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +15.6% 3994.JP (Money Forward): holder ValueAct discloses 5.62% stake

      • +8.3% 148.HK (Kingboard Holdings): guides H1 net income more than HK$2.56B, +70% y/y

      • +2% 2007.HK (Country Garden Holdings): reportedly offers to meet banks' demand for $178M (CNY1.27B) in compensation for release of seized collateral

      • +1.3% 6594.JP (Nidec): reports preliminary Q1 earnings; operating income ahead of StreetAccount estimates

      • +0.5% 012330.KS (Hyundai Mobis): reports Q2 operating profit ahead of StreetAccount estimates

      • +0.06% 7832.JP (BANDAI NAMCO Holdings): Sony, Bandai Namco form strategic business alliance; Sony to buy 16M shares in Bandai Namco

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.7% 1952.HK (Everest Medicines): enters into placement and top up subscription agreement of 22.6M-shares at HK$69.70/share through Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley

      • -9.5% 4063.JP (Shin-Etsu Chemical): reports Q1 results with operating profit below FactSet estimates

      • -7.9% 7211.JP (Mitsubishi Motors): reports Q1 earnings; headline figures below StreetAccount estimates

      • -4.9% 7751.JP (Canon): reports Q2 earnings with revenue below StreetAccount estimates; lowers FY guidance

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • July Tokyo core CPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +3.1% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.1% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and +3.1% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +3.1% in prior month

        • June services PPI +3.2% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and revised +3.4% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (370.11) or (0.88%) to 41456.23

      • Hang Seng: (278.83) or (1.09%) to 25388.35

      • Shanghai Composite: (12.07) or (0.33%) to 3593.66

      • Shenzhen Composite: (2.19) or (0.10%) to 2200.90

      • ASX200: (42.50) or (0.49%) to 8666.90

      • KOSPI: 5.60 or +0.18% to 3196.05

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.69 or +0.47% to 147.6900

      • $-KRW: +5.62 or +0.41% to 1378.4600

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.33%) to 0.6568

      • $-INR: +0.19 or +0.22% to 86.5711

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.16% to 7.1663

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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