Jul 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to lower, following mostly higher levels on Thursday. Autos/Parts, Persnl & HHold Goods and Travel & Leisure lead; Media, Financial Svcs, and Real Estate lag. Asian equity markets lower. Hang Seng underperforms. Nikkei also under pressure. ASX lower, Kospi little changed. US equity markets mostly firmer. Comes after US equities put in a mixed performance in a fairly uneventful Thursday session that saw S&P and Nasdaq once again set new ATHs.
Market in a holding pattern in Europe awaiting progress on a US-EU trade deal. Reports have noted that a deal is close but Trump on Friday said 50-50 chance. EU sees deal within reach, but also signalled preparedness to retaliate if negotiations fail. Agreements with Asian countries has injected optimism on the prospect of a deal. Attention also on Treasury Secretary Bessent's meeting with China Vice Premier He Lifeng early next week. With Bessent signaling extension of 12-Aug trade deadline, press citing this week's trade deals as positive indication on US-China trajectory.
On the macro front, German Ifo business index firmer in July, yet below consensus. UK retail sales data showed a recovery in June, but fell light of expectations and GFK consumer confidence measure dipped overnight. Elsewhere, Eurozone M3 money supply growth much softer than forecast. ECB survey of professional forecasts sees downward revision in inflation outlook for 2025-26, but unchanged further out. GDP revised up.
In other news, UK lenders exposed to car mis-selling scandal benefit from report UK Chancellor Reeves consider overruling supreme court ruling to cut liabilities for lenders. In the US, headline June durable-goods orders down 9.3% m/m following a 16.5% rise in May; Core orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) missed.
On a busy earnings front, DACH names kicked off the session, with Volkswagen (VOW.GR), TRATON (8TRA.GR), Puma (PUM.GR). FORVIA HELLA (HLE.GR), SGS (SGSN.SW) and Zehnder Group (ZEHN.SW) among few other names updating investors. In France, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP) shares little moved after H1 numbers last night, with Michelin (ML.FP) and Valeo (FR.FP) also reporting after the close; this morning , Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP) issued its H1 report. In the Benelux region, Signify (LIGHT.NA), Heijmans (HEIJM.NA), Proximus (PROX.BB) and Cofinimmo (COFB.BB) published their most recent earnings. Elsewhere, Eni (ENI.IM) posted Q2 and raised FY CFFO outlook, whilst in the UK, NatWest Group (NWG.LN) beat Q2 estimates, strengthened its FY25 guidance and announced a £750M buyback
In M&A headlines, Marex Group (MRX) to acquire Winterflood Securities from Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN) for £103.9M ($140.2M) in cash. Roxellen BidCo announces SEK 6.80/share in cash recommended public offer MedHelp (MEDHLP.SS). STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP) acquires NXP's (NXPI) MEMS sensors business for up to $950M.
Looking ahead to monday's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 28-Jul to 01-Aug attached) Acciona (ANA.SM), Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables (ANE.SM), Gestamp Automoción (GEST.SM), Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF.SM), Prosegur Cash (CASH.SM), Iberpapel Gestion (IBG.SM), Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA), Musti Group (MUSTI.FH), EssilorLuxottica (EL.FP), Rexel (RXL.FP), Vicat (VCT.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Verimatrix (VMX.FP), Grupo Comercial Chedraui SAB de CV (2GCB.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), naturenergie holding (NEAG.SW),and Heineken (HEIA.NA), will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Sweden Jun trade balance, Denmark Jun retail sales, Ireland Q2 preliminary GDP, UK Jul distributive trades - CBI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Autos & Parts +1.36%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.47%, Travel & Leisure +0.26%, Utilities +0.25%, Retail +0.11%, Construct & Mtls +0.04%, Banks (0.11%), Oil & Gas (0.22%),
Underperformers:
Media (1.41%), Financial Svcs (1.02%), Real Estate (0.90%), Telecom (0.84%), Technology (0.64%), Food & Beverage (0.63%), Chemicals (0.56%), Basic Resources (0.47%), Health Care (0.40%), Insurance (0.37%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.35%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Nine more die of malnutrition in Gaza, health ministry says, as Israel to allow foreign aid airdrops - BBC
Zelenskyy reveals Ukrainian protests forced U-turn on anti-corruption bill - Politico
Trump travels to Scotland for golf and bilateral talks amid Epstein furor - Reuters
Thailand favours direct talks to end Cambodia conflict, rather than mediation - Reuters
Russia
Russia's central bank speeds up rate cuts as war economy cools - FT
EU
UK
Streeting 'won't let BMA hold country to ransom' as thousands strike - The Times
Government considering having borrowing assessed once a year - BBC
IMF: Reeves must raise taxes, scrap triple lock or charge for NHS - The Telegraph
Rising UK Housing Stock Hurts Home Developers, Rightmove Says - Bloomberg
France
French plan to recognise Palestinian state draws fire from Israel, US - Reuters
Germany
Ifo business climate brightens in July - but "upswing remains anemic" - Handelsblatt
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+42.2% ADOC.FP (Adocia €8.50, +2.24) -- positive topline results of Phase 3 clinical trial on ultra-rapid insulin BioChaperone Lispro (THDB0206 injection) in people with Type 2 diabetes
+12.3% YIT.FH (Yit €3.16, +0.35) -- Q2 earnings; raises low end of FY adj. operating profit guidance range
+11.9% TET.LN (Treatt £1.90, +0.22)
+11.3% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £11.28, +1.21) -- Barclays upgrade
+9.1% HOFI.SS (Hoist Finance SEK106.60, +8.60) -- Q2 earnings
+7.8% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK105.60, +8.15) -- Q2 earnings
+7.2% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €58.85, +4.15) -- Q1 revenue; raises 2025-26 organic COP target
+6.0% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €108.30, +6.30) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.9% CA.FP (Carrefour €12.82, +0.73) -- H1 earnings; entered into exclusive negotiations with NewPrinces Group regarding sale of all its operations in Italy
+5.4% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa SEK126.70, +6.60) -- Q2 earnings
+4.6% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £4.23, +0.19) -- Marex Group to acquire Winterflood Securities from company for £103.9M in cash
+3.9% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €94.86, +3.70) -- Q2 earnings
+3.8% UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene €24.00, +0.91) -- plans to expand production capacity in advanced label materials in North America; ABG Sundal Collier upgrade
+3.5% PIHLIS.FH (Pihlajalinna €15.95, +0.55) -- OP Corporate Bank upgrade
+1.8% VONN.SW (Vontobel Holding CHF60.90, +1.10) -- Citi upgrade
+1.8% DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes €29.85, +0.53) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
Trading Lower:
-20.6% MSLH.LN (Marshalls £2.11, -0.55) -- prelim H1 earnings
-18.9% MEKO.SS (MEKO AB SEK87.10, -21.30) -- Q2 earnings; discontinues role of COO
-15.5% PUM.GR (Puma €20.27, -3.82) -- prelim Q2 earnings; lowers FY outlook
-12.0% LIGHT.NA (Signify €20.50, -2.76) -- Q2 earnings
-9.8% CLTN.SW (Coltene Holding CHF60.00, -6.40) -- H1 earnings
-9.8% PROX.BB (Proximus €7.21, -0.80) -- Q2 earnings; adjusts FY25 EBITDA growth guidance downward
-9.5% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.20, -0.02) -- continues discussions regards the cancellation of the trading of its shares from Euronext Oslo; completes tender offer for 127.7M shares totalling £31.9M
-8.7% HEIJM.NA (Heijmans €52.30, -4.95) -- H1 earnings
-7.4% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €121.15, -9.45)
-6.0% FR.FP (Valeo SE €8.90, -0.62) -- H1 earnings
-5.8% SWTQ.SW (Schweiter Technologies CHF384.00, -24.00) -- H1 earnings
-5.7% VAIAS.FH (Vaisala €47.75, -2.85) -- Q2 earnings
-5.4% REC.LN (Record £0.60, -0.03) -- Q1 trading update
-4.8% NVG.PL (The Navigator Co. €3.03, -0.16) -- Q2 earnings
-4.5% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €192.20, -8.90) -- H1 earnings
-4.5% RENE.PL (Redes Energeticas Nacionais SGPS €3.13, -0.15) -- H1 earnings
-3.9% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €30.78, -1.30) -- H1 earnings; cuts FY25 guidance
-3.7% JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management £1.33, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-3.6% BEKB.BB (Bekaert €36.20, -1.35)
-3.1% SUBC.NO (Subsea 7 NOK202.20, -6.30) -- Pareto and Danske Bank downgrades
-2.9% SUN.SW (Sulzer CHF156.00, -4.60) -- Zürcher Kantonalbank downgrade
-2.1% ABVX.FP (Abivax €56.40, -1.20) -- announces full exercise of underwriters' option to purchase 1.5M additional ADSs, bringing gross proceeds of offering to $747.5M
-1.6% LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group £100.75, -1.60)
-1.5% HLE.GR (FORVIA HELLA €87.25, -1.30) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Heineken (HEIA.NA)
DACHs: Grupo Comercial Chedraui SAB de CV (2GCB.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), naturenergie holding (NEAG.SW)
France: EssilorLuxottica (EL.FP), Rexel (RXL.FP), Vicat (VCT.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Verimatrix (VMX.FP)
Nordics: Musti Group (MUSTI.FH)
Southern Europe: Acciona (ANA.SM), Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables (ANE.SM), Gestamp Automoción (GEST.SM), Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF.SM), Prosegur Cash (CASH.SM), Iberpapel Gestion (IBG.SM), Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Theon International (THEON.NA)
France: Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Lumibird (LBIRD.FP), Nacon (NACON.FP)
UK: Cranswick (CWK.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Sweden
Jun PPI (3.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.7%) and prior (2.8%)
Jun Unemployment Rate 9.4% vs consensus 8.8% and prior 9.7%
UK Jun Retail Sales +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and prior revised (1.1%) from (1.3%)
France Jul Consumer Confidence 89 vs consensus 88 and prior 88
Germany Jul IFO survey
Business Climate 88.6 vs consensus 89.0 and prior 88.4
Current Conditions 86.5 vs consensus 86.7 and prior 86.2
Expectations 90.7 vs consensus 91.1 vs prior revised 90.6 from 90.7
Eurozone Jun M3 Money Supply +3.3% y/y vs consensus +3.7% and prior +3.9%
Italy Jul
Business Confidence 87.8 vs consensus 87.7 and prior 87.3
Consumer Confidence 97.2 vs consensus 96.0 and prior 96.1
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 25): ($0.48) or (0.73%) to $65.55
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.12%) to 1.1734
£-$ (0.0076) or (0.56%) to 1.3433
€-£ +0.0038 to 0.8735
S&P 500 +0.25%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +11.59%
DAX: +21.64%
CAC: +6.15%
MIB: +19.13%
Stoxx 600: +8.34%
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