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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.10%), Hang Seng +0.68%, Shanghai Composite +0.12% as of 04:10 ET

Jul 28 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities were mixed Monday. Hang Seng led Greater China markets as US and China are holding their third round of trade talks in Stockholm with possibility of another 90-day extension beyond 12-Aug deadline. Korea, Australia and Taiwan all ended mildly higher. Japan retreated for second straight session. India lower for third session in a row. US futures climbing on boost from EU trade agreement, China talks. Treasury yields were lower across tenors. JGBs bull flattened. Dollar stronger against Aussie, kiwi and yen. Crude rising, gold flat and bitcoin little changed.

    • Trade deal momentum continues after US and EU struck a framework trade agreement, establishing 15% tariff on most EU exports, half the threatened rate of 30%, including autos. Agreement expands list of major US trading partners signing deals, most notably Japan, over past week, with attention now shifting to third round of US-China trade talks as Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng are meeting in Stockholm for two days from Monday. SCMP sources two sides expected to agree to another 90-day tariff deadline extension and prepare for a possible Trump-Xi summit later this year. Meanwhile South Korea and India remain absent from striking agreements with Trump administration. Seoul to resume trade talks this week with shipbuilding cooperation on the agenda. Fading prospects of US-India deal by 1-Aug deadline but two sides remain positive on trajectory.

    • China industrial profits, released on Sunday, continued to fall in June amid persistent factory-gate deflation, though steel profits recovered following efforts to tackle overcapacity. China has proposed to create a new global AI governance body. Japan PM Ishiba approval rating fell to new low as political uncertainty continues ahead of Monday's LDP meeting. Taiwan's opposition managed to keep its majority in the legislative body after voters rejected an attempt to recall 24 KMT lawmakers on Saturday. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to hold ceasefire talks on Monday following deadly clashes.

    • Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) has secured KRW22.8T ($16.5B) chipmaking agreement with Tesla (TSLA). CK Hutchinson (1.HK) plans to invite a strategic investor from mainland China to join consortium of buyers to acquire its ports. GSK (GSK.LN) said it has teamed up with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276.HK) in deal worth up to $12B to develop 12 medicines. The latter jumped 24.5% Monday. China tech firms launched new AI models during World Artificial Intelligence Conference, including Tencent's (700.HK) Hunyuan 3D World Model 1.0 and SenseTime (20.HK) SenseNova V6.5 foundation model and Wu Neng embodied AI platform.

  • Digest:

    • US and China to hold talks in Stockholm, expected to extend tariff truce by 90 days:

      • US and China to continue trade negotiations in Stockholm on Monday, led by Treasury Secretary Bessent and China Vice Premier He Lifeng (Reuters, CNN). SCMP sources noted at the meeting US and China expected to agree to another 90-day extension of tariff deadline originally set to expire 12-Aug. Agenda remains vague after Bessent said last week he would raise issue China overcapacity and its purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iran oil. US has also been demanding China open its markets and rebalance economy towards consumption. SCMP sources added China officials will press US on 20% fentanyl tariffs that remain in place but may settle for 10% baseline rate. On Sunday, President Trump said China trade deal "very close" without elaborating. However, trade analysts don't expect agreement in Stockholm with two sides instead looking to build on previous negotiations and create space for potential Trump-Xi meeting in late October or early November. FT sources noted Trump administration has frozen tech export controls ahead of Stockholm talks in bid to smooth path for Trump-Xi meeting.

    • India and South Korea remain absent from growing list of US trade deals:

      • Reuters reported South Korea and US set for ministerial-level meetings in Washington this week. Yonhap sources noted South Korea to propose multi-billion-dollar shipbuilding cooperation package comprised of investments and loans. On Friday two sides reaffirmed commitment to reach deal by 1-Aug following meetings between finance ministers and top trade officials. Korean officials said discussions have involved non-tariff barriers in agriculture and digital services sectors, but FX has not been a focus. Meanwhile there are fading prospects of US and India reaching trade deal by 1-Aug after India press sources last week noted US negotiation team will visit New Delhi later in August for next round of negotiations. Divisions remain over issues such as access to India's agricultural and dairy markets. However, India's Commerce Minister on Friday struck an optimistic tone by touting 'fantastic progress' being made in negotiations and expressing confidence about India gaining preferential US market access (Reuters, Times of India). India has so far avoided tariff letter while Goyal downplayed significance of 1-Aug deadline with two sides still pushing for an interim trade agreement by fall.

    • Samsung rallies following deal with Tesla to supply semiconductors:

      • Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) rallied 7% Monday after announcing $16.5B (KRW22.765T) deal to supply semiconductors (Bloomberg, CNBC). While Samsung did not name counterparty in its filing, Elon Musk later confirmed it was Tesla (TSLA) in a series of posts on X. Said Samsung's new Texas fab will be dedicated to making Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip, a successor to TSMC-produced A15 chip that just has finished design. Samsung currently produces AI4 chip for Tesla's self-driving vehicles. Musk claimed $16.5B only the bare minimum with actual output likely to be several times higher. Added Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency and he will personally walk production line. Development comes after Samsung announced in April it aimed to begin mass production of 2nm chips in its foundry business with intent to win major orders. Tesla deal expected to aid Samsung's loss-making foundry business with increase in capacity utilization translating to pickup in annual foundry sales. TSMC presently dominates foundry market with estimated 67.6% share in Q1 compared to Samsung, whose share fell to 7.7% from 8.1%.

    • BOJ expected to upgrade FY25 inflation forecast:

      • Early Nikkei preview of the BOJ July 30-31 MPM suggested that while outlook risks have dissipated from the US-Japan trade agreement, board members poised to continue monitoring impacts on corporate activities such as investment plans. Noted market consensus looks for no change to the policy rate. Main development expected to come in the Outlook Report, where the FY25 inflation forecast of +2.2% is expected to be revised up, albeit only marginally, in light of recent elevation. Internal BOJ analysis highlights the leading contribution from surging prices of rice and rice-derived food products. BOJ sources anticipate normalization from government reserves deployment and circulation of new harvest supplies. Article recalled Deputy Governor Uchida said in a speech last week following the trade deal announcement that tariff uncertainties for Japanese companies have subsided, though economic uncertainties at home and abroad remain high. Market-implied odds for a July rate high remained negligible as of Friday at just 5% with expectations concentrated from September and beyond. Story mentioned BOJ's typical reluctance to change policy during major domestic political developments. Yet amid ongoing attention on FX rates, also cited views that yen depreciation beyond 150 per dollar would likely spur an earlier rate hike.

    • Japan equity optimism only enough to sustain current market levels:

      • Kyodo discussed market perceptions the US-Japan trade deal will keep the Nikkei index above the 40K level at least for a while, despite political uncertainty stemming from the ruling coalition's setback in the upper house elections. Market likely to be buoyed by hopes for corporate guidance upgrades as tariff assumptions ease. SMBC Trust Bank suggested added tailwinds may come from US trade deals with EU and China, as well as economic data and earnings, seeing potential upside for Nikkei as high as 44K. Much of the attention on bond yields. Many analysts see a 10y JGB yield of 1.6% as benign for stocks, though a spike towards 2% may bring public debt concerns to the fore. Risks for bond yields seem to be skewed to the upside, given the trade deal will make a BOJ rate hike easier and market-implied probability of a move by year-end has rebounded. Some implication that current bond yields have priced in political developments surrounding fiscal policy and opposition calls for consumption tax cuts. But Mizuho Securities suggested that renewed political pressure from opposition parties may provide the necessary catalyst for higher yields and equities stand to react negatively if 10y reaches 1.7%~1.8%.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +14.3% 298040.KS (Hyosung Heavy Industries): reports Q2 earnings; operating profit and revenue ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +10% 600276.CH (Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals): enters collaboration, option, license agreement with GSK

      • +6.8% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): enters KRW22.765T chip production supply contract with large global firm, reportedly Tesla; in tweets, Elon Musk seemingly confirms the deal

      • +5.9% 853.HK (MicroPort Scientific): Otsuka Holdings to sell 15.7% stake

      • +5% 6954.JP (FANUC Corp.): reports Q1 earnings with revenue and operating profit ahead of StreetAccount estimates

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.7% 7735.JP (SCREEN): reports Q1 earnings; revenue and operating profit miss FactSet estimates

      • -8% 008770.KS (HOTEL SHILLA Co.): reports Q2 earnings with revenue and operating profit below StreetAccount estimates

      • -3.2% 605499.CH (Eastroc Beverage (Group)): reports H1 results and operating update

  • Data:

    • Economic

      • China Jan-Jun 2025 industrial profits (1.8%) y/y vs (1.1%) in Jan-May (Sunday CST)

        • June industrial profits (4.3%) y/y vs (9.1%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (457.96) or (1.10%) to 40998.27

      • Hang Seng: 173.78 or +0.68% to 25562.13

      • Shanghai Composite: 4.28 or +0.12% to 3597.94

      • Shenzhen Composite: 11.03 or +0.50% to 2211.94

      • ASX200: 30.80 or +0.36% to 8697.70

      • KOSPI: 13.47 or +0.42% to 3209.52

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.60 or +0.41% to 148.2700

      • $-KRW: +2.50 or +0.18% to 1386.1300

      • A$-$: (0.01) or (0.76%) to 0.6515

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.04% to 86.5567

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.06% to 7.1728

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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