Jul 30 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities again ended mixed Wednesday. Gains for Shanghai's composite, Australia's ASX, the Kospi and Taiex. Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Singapore and India all lower. Southeast Asia also mixed. US futures higher, Europe mixed in the first hour of trade. US dollar flat, yen stronger, AUD a little weaker following lower-than-expected inflation. Treasuries and JGBs mixed, CGB yields higher again. Crude and precious metals unchanged, iron ore leading base metals higher.
Asia equities uncertain of a firm direction Wednesday ahead of several critical data points later this week and uncertain developments over tariffs: Japan equities mixed, Hong Kong volatile and sharply lower, but technology-leaning benchmarks showed resilience to end higher. US and China officials ended two days of talks in Stockholm without a major breakthrough just as US Secretary of State Bessent doubled down on threats to impose restrictive sanctions on Russian crude exports to China, signaling a decisive deal was some way off. A further 90-day extension to Washington's 12-Aug deadline still the most likely outcome although President Trump is likely to have the final say, according to Bessent.
In other developments, President Trump said India could face 20-25% tariffs reflecting lingering divisions between the two sides on US access to India's agriculture, auto and dairy markets. South Korea media reported forex may be topic of discussion in Thursday's trade talks with the US. Australia Q2 headline and trimmed mean inflation came in below expectations, firming expectations of an August RBA rate cut. Singapore MAS left policy unchanged but warned of an economic slowdown in H2 and uncertainty in 2026. Thailand's government raised its FY GDP growth forecast amid resilient exports. Ahead, US Fed expected to leave policy unchanged with statement expected to re-emphasize data dependency with an avoidance of hints toward a September cut.
Fujitec (6406.JP) has received a tender offer for the firm from Sweden's investment firm EQT at a substantial discount to its most recent closing price; shares down sharply. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) said it sold a record number of vehicles in H1-25 on a strong demand for hybrids as well as from US customers ahead of tariffs. HSBC (5.HK) Q2 profits fell 29% and said it continued to expect demand for lending to remain muted during 2025; said French and Swiss authorities are investigating its private bank unit. LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) signed a $4.3B battery supply deal with Tesla, according to Reuters. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is said to be revisiting places to invest $7B in an advanced packaging facility for HBM chips in Texas while SK Hynix (000660.KS) is considering the construction of a new DRAM production line in the US. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) posted a decline in H1 profits amid stagnant commodity prices and trade uncertainties. Reliance Industries (500325.IN) is proposing to sell just 5% of its Jio telecom unit in an IPO next year that still may raise around $6B.
Digest:
No breakthrough in US-China talks, Trump to decide on tariff deadline extension:
US and China wrapped up two days of talks in Stockholm with no major breakthroughs beyond noting discussions were constructive. (CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, SCMP). Before meeting Bessent said he would raise issue of China's purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude. Bessent reminded China about potential for secondary tariffs though Beijing asserted its purchases would be based on internal needs (Reuters). US didn't get any commitments from China on addressing industrial overcapacity and reorienting economy towards consumption. USTR Greer noted rare earths situation improving but wanted assurances on continued flow of rare earths magnets. China was also expected to raise issues of fentanyl tariffs and export controls. Xinhua readout made little mention of sticking points, instead repeating need to further consolidate Geneva consensus and deepen mutual trust. Two sides appeared to differ on expectations for tariff deadline extension. China trade official Li Chenggang said two agreed on maintaining truce, but Bessent clarified final decision will be left to Trump and that he'd brief the president on remaining issues between the two sides. Still, Trump seemed to have a positive take, noting Bessent felt very good about the meeting.
China Politburo pledges to better manage capacity in key industries:
Xinhua published July Politburo meeting readout in which authorities vowed to step up macroeconomic policy support. Will implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects. Will accelerate issuance and usage of government bonds. Monetary policy would ensure ample liquidity and push for lower overall social financing costs. On trade, China will strengthen financial support to enterprises that are significantly affected by external shocks and optimize export tax rebate policies. Most notably, authorities pledged to optimize market competition, regulate "disorderly competition" among companies, and tackle overcapacity in some key industries. Top leaders also vowed to bolster services consumption and curb local government debt risks. Xinhua also reported ruling Communist Party will hold fourth plenum in October, which Bloomberg noted the key conclave that involves some 400 members of party elite will discuss country's development plan for next five years (2026-2030).
US wants more from South Korea in trade talks, FX may feature in discussions:
South Korean and US officials to resume trade negotiations on Thursday afterfinishing talks on Tuesday (Yonhap). Commerce Secretary Lutnick reportedly urged them to bring their best and final offer in trade talks (Bloomberg). Yonhap interpreted Lutnick's comment as a demand for more concessions amid indications South Korea's proposed shipbuilding investment package (reported to be worth $100B) is insufficient when Japan and Europe reportedly offered $550B and $600B respectively. South Korea under pressure to get Trump to lower tariff rate from 25% to 15%, or its automakers will be left at disadvantage compared to Japan and European counterparts. Korea Economic Daily also reported two sides may discuss FX during Thursday talks, though it did not cite sources. Claimed US demanded Korea take measures to appreciate the won. Note that Treasury Department's semiannual FX report in early June did not label South Korea a currency manipulator but kept it on its FX monitoring list. FX speculation not new after Korea Economic Daily report in May also noted currency had been a feature of trade talks (Bloomberg).
Australian inflation falls by more than expected, firming August rate cut expectations:
Australia Q2 headline inflation eased to 0.7% q/q from Q1's 0.9%, below consensus 0.8%. Brought yearly rate to 2.1% from 2.4% (vs consensus 2.2%), lowest since Q1-2021. More important trimmed mean inflation unexpectedly fell to 0.6% q/q from 0.7%, bringing yearly rate to 2.7% from 2.9%, in-line with RBA's forecast in May and lowest since Q4-2021. Moderation in core measure came from further falls in previously sticky categories such as education, insurance and rents, taking services inflation to lowest since Jun-2022. Drop in goods inflation primarily reflected lower fuel prices. Monthly CPI unexpectedly fell to 1.9% in May, first time below 2-3% target since series inception. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.1% from 2.4% in May, lowest since Aug-2021. June's fall driven by slowdown in rents, new dwelling costs and health. Data firmed expectations of an August rate cut after Governor Bullock said at July press conference that board favored waiting a month to gain greater confidence on disinflation trajectory before resuming easing cycle. Recent Bloomberg survey showed economists anticipate three rate cuts by early 2026 for terminal rate of 3.10%.
Singapore monetary authority holds policy steady but warns of economic slowdown in H2:
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) held its monetary policy steady, as expected by majority of economists, by holding appreciation rate SGD's nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) unchanged, keeping width and center point also unchanged. MAS said global economic growth more resilient than it had earlier anticipated with manufacturing, trade remaining steady due to front-loading, AI-related investments. Added risk of a sharp step-down in global growth receded with trade tension de-escalation however warned Singapore's GDP growth will moderate in H2-25 as trade-related sectors pullback, offset by activity in construction, financial services. Prospects for Singapore economy remain subject to 'significant uncertainty' especially in 2026 as tariffs impact country's export sectors; renewed trade tensions, geopolitical or financial shocks could weigh on GDP growth further. Inflation expectations unchanged at 0.5% for core, 1.5% for inflation, to rise marginally in H2.
Notable Gainers:
+8.2% 902.HK (Huaneng Power International): reports H1 CAS net income attributable CNY9.26B, +24% vs year-ago CNY7.45B
+6.1% 6701.JP (NEC Corp): reports Q1 earnings; revenue ahead of FactSet estimates; reiterates FY guidance
+4.9% 7751.JP (Canon): to launch up to 32M-share buyback for up to ¥100B
+0.1% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports June global production +7.4% y/y to 854,565
Notable Decliners:
-23.3% 7309.JP (Shimano): reports H1 results; operating income below guidance; lowers FY guidance
-9.5% 6406.JP (Fujitec): EQT to launch tender offer for Fujitec at ¥5,700/share
-8.7% 8609.JP (Okasan Securities Group): reports Q1 net income attributable ¥1.72B, (48%) vs year-ago ¥3.31B
-4.1% 9202.JP (ANA HOLDINGS): reports Q1 earnings; revenue below FactSet estimates
-3.4% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): reports Q2 earnings with operating profit, revenue below StreetAccount estimates
Data:
Economic:
Australia
Q2 headline CPI +0.7% q/q vs consensus +0.8% and +0.9% in Q1
Headline CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus 2.2% and +2.4% in Q1
Trimmed mean CPI +0.6% q/q vs consensus +0.7% and +0.7% in Q1
Trimmed mean +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and +2.9% in Q1
June CPI 1.9% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and +2.1% in May
Trimmed mean CPI +2.1% y/y vs +2.4% in May
New Zealand
July ANZ Business Confidence +47.8 vs +46.3 in June
Markets:
Nikkei: (19.85) or (0.05%) to 40654.70
Hang Seng: (347.52) or (1.36%) to 25176.93
Shanghai Composite: 6.01 or +0.17% to 3615.72
Shenzhen Composite: (16.34) or (0.74%) to 2205.79
ASX200: 51.80 or +0.60% to 8756.40
KOSPI: 23.90 or +0.74% to 3254.47
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.42) or (0.29%) to 148.0500
$-KRW: (6.63) or (0.48%) to 1382.0100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.09%) to 0.6502
$-INR: +0.31 or +0.36% to 87.3713
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1781
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE