Jul 31 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower, near worst levels. Insurance, banks outperformer; Basic resources, auto/parts and food/beverage the biggest laggards. Asian markets mostly weaker while US equity markets are firmer in midday trading. Bond yields mixed. Treasuries unchanged to firmer at the long end; comes after yields backed up on Wednesday. Gilts off ~3 bps at 4.57%. Bund little changed at 2.70% Dollar stronger across the board, on track for best week since Oct-2024. Oil down. Gold little changed. Industrial metals lower. NY copper extending losses.
Global attention on trade developments and central bank policy. Trump announced agreement with South Korea that features a 15% tariff rate. Several other deals expected to be announced before Friday's reciprocal tariff deadline Trump also said he expects a very fair deal with China and is scheduled to talk to Mexican president today. EU official said EU wine and spirits to face 15% tariffs versus current rate of 10% until negotiators from both sides agree a different deal. Hawkish Powell press conference takeaways, dampened Fed rate cut expectations, hawkish-leaning BoJ hold, ECB rate cut expectations below 50% probability.
Amidst a busy macroeconomics calendar, inflation updates from Germany, France and Italy steady-to-firmer ahead of tomorrow's Eurozone update. Eurozone unemployment rate came in lower than expected. German import prices declined, while employment remained stable. UK business barometer hit highest level in 10-years in contrast to other recent downbeat confidence readings. Elsewhere, British Retail Consortium warned UK food prices to hit 6% by year-end, which might limit the BoE's ability to cut rates.
Busy on the earnings front as well; out of France, Schneider Electric, Sanofi, Airbus SE (last night), Legrand, JCDecaux, Accor, Ipsen and Arkema were among few other companies from the region to update investors; DACH names included BMW, Heidelberg Materials, Puma, HENSOLDT, Holcim, Clariant, ams-OSRAM and Heidelberger Druckmaschinen. In the banking sector, Societe Generale, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Standard Chartered, ING Groep and Credit Agricole reported whilst - in the airline segment - Air France-KLM and Lufthansa issued their most recent numbers. In the UK, Shell, Unilever, Rolls-Royce, London Stock Exchange Group and Next issued earnings/trading updates. Elsewhere, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Leonardo published their Q2/H1 reports.
In M&A news, JD.com (JD) made a voluntary public takeover offer and strategic investment partnership with CECONOMY (CEC.GR), Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT.CN) acquired Just Group (JUST.LN) for 220p/sh in cash, in deal worth £2.4B (~$3.18B), Euronext (ENX.FP) announces submission of voluntary share exchange offer to acquire all shares of ATHEX (EXAE.GA).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Insurance +0.55%, Banks +0.21%, Real Estate +0.08%, Oil & Gas +0.05%, Utilities (0.12%), Media (0.23%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.28%), Telecom (0.51%)
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (3.94%), Basic Resources (2.68%), Food & Beverage (2.57%), Financial Svcs (1.64%), Health Care (1.51%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.23%), Travel & Leisure (1.08%), Technology (1.07%), Construct & Mtls (1.07%), Chemicals (0.94%), Retail (0.92%)
Macro:
ECB:
Markets increasingly confident ECB is done easing: Bloomberg
BoE:
Next week's BoE decision like to result in another split vote: Reuters
UK:
LLoyds Bank UK business confidence barometer at highest in 10 years: CityAM
UK retailers warn food inflation to hit 6% by Christmas: A survey by British Retail Consortium
Germany:
France:
French inflation remained stable at 0.9% in July, below the ECB's 2% target, supporting potential interest rate cuts: Bloomberg
Geopolitics:
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+67.5% JUST.LN (Just Group £2.11, +0.85) -- Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT.CN) to acquire Just Group for 220p/share in cash, or £2.4B ($3.18B) total
+15.1% JTC.LN (JTC £9.46, +1.24) -- trading update; to acquire Kleinwort Hambros Trust Company Limited for total consideration of £20M in cash
+13.6% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.96, +0.12) -- Q2 earnings
+11.5% MRN.FP (Mersen €24.20, +2.50) -- H1 earnings; new CEO
+11.1% STJ.LN (St. James's Place £13.00, +1.30) -- H1 earnings; new share buyback
+9.0% RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial £3.78, +0.31) -- H1 earnings
+8.9% AKER.NO (Aker ASA NOK713.00, +58.00) -- project launch
+8.4% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.78, +0.06) -- to place up to 198.2M shares and 49.6M warrants at 53p/share; plans to launch up-to-€8M open offer
+8.0% INF.FP (Infotel €40.50, +3.00) -- prelim Q2 revenue; Oddo, Gilbert Dupont and Portzamparc upgrades
+7.3% BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria €14.56, +0.99) -- Q2 earnings
+7.3% ELM.LN (Elementis £1.73, +0.12) -- H1 earnings
+7.1% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £10.59, +0.71) -- H1 earnings; raises FY guidance
+6.9% MOVE.SW (Medacta Group CHF148.80, +9.60) -- prelim H1 earnings; raises FY guidance
+6.5% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €55.78, +3.42) -- Q2 earnings
+6.0% VINO.LN (Virgin Wines UK £0.62, +0.04) -- trading update
+5.7% TGYM.IM (Technogym €13.53, +0.73) -- earnings
+5.5% MED.GR (Mediclin €3.06, +0.16) -- earnings
+5.3% DRX.LN (Drax Group £7.14, +0.36) -- H1 earnings
+4.8% ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS €44.06, +2.02) -- Q2 earnings
+4.1% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €5.10, +0.20) -- H1 earnings
+4.1% BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues €0.72, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+3.9% FNTL.LN (Fintel £2.38, +0.09) -- trading update
+3.7% HAG.GR (HENSOLDT €96.05, +3.40) -- H1 earnings
+3.4% SBRE.LN (Sabre Insurance Group £1.53, +0.05) -- H1 earnings
+3.3% SAF.FP (Safran €290.10, +9.30) -- H1 earnings; raises FY guidance
+3.3% G1A.GR (GEA Group €63.35, +2.05) -- raises FY guidance
+3.1% KARN.SW (Kardex Holding CHF314.00, +9.50) -- H1 earnings
+2.9% ONTEX.BB (Ontex Group €6.85, +0.19) -- Q2 earnings
+2.5% UCB.BB (UCB €190.00, +4.60) -- H1 earnings; raises FY guidance
+2.4% SYENS.BB (Syensqo €70.52, +1.66) -- Q2 earnings; launches share buyback
+2.1% LR.FP (Legrand €130.30, +2.65) -- H1 earnings
+2.0% EXENS.FP (Exosens €40.90, +0.80) -- new share buyback
+2.0% BEKB.BB (Bekaert €36.20, +0.70) -- H1 earnings; share buyback
+1.8% KOJAMO.FH (Kojamo €11.14, +0.20) -- lowers guidance; buyback; completes residential properties sale
+1.5% DLG.IM (De'Longhi €28.82, +0.42) -- earnings
Notable Decliners
-21.8% COTN.SW (COMET Holding CHF207.20, -57.60) -- H1 earnings
-19.5% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €17.96, -4.34) -- Q1 earnings
-11.7% MNDI.LN (Mondi £10.32, -1.37) -- H1 earnings
-11.1% ABI.BB (Anheuser-Busch InBev €51.66, -6.46) -- Q2 earnings
-9.3% ALL.LN (Atlantic Lithium £0.08, -0.01) -- Q4 update
-9.1% AC.FP (Accor €44.90, -4.50) -- H1 earnings; new share buyback
-8.8% RWA.LN (Robert Walters £1.45, -0.14) -- H1 earnings
-7.5% ANDR.AV (Andritz €61.70, -5.00) -- Q2 earnings
-7.0% SAN.FP (Sanofi €79.56, -5.96) -- Q2 earnings
-6.8% EN.FP (Bouygues €36.33, -2.65) -- H1 earnings; new CFO
-6.5% LEHN.SW (LEM Holding CHF664.00, -46.00) -- Berenberg downgrade
-6.1% SUR.GR (Surteco Group €14.55, -0.95) -- H1 earnings
-5.8% PETS.LN (Pets At Home Group £2.29, -0.14) -- trading update; lowers FY guidance
-5.7% PLNW.FP (Planisware €21.55, -1.30) -- H1 earnings
-5.7% FDR.SM (Fluidra €22.14, -1.34) -- H1 earnings
-5.5% CRBN.NA (Corbion €16.72, -0.97) -- Q2 earnings
-5.0% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €105.60, -5.50) -- H1 earnings
-4.8% IVG.IM (Iveco Group €18.11, -0.91) -- Tata Motors to acquire Iveco Group for ~ €3.8B, excluding Iveco's defence business and net proceeds from the defence business separation; Q2 earnings; Oddo downgrade
-4.5% VIB3.GR (Villeroy & Boch €17.05, -0.80) -- H1 earnings
-4.4% DEC.FP (JCDecaux €14.55, -0.67) -- H1 earnings
-4.4% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €3.28, -0.15) -- Q2 earnings
-4.2% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF10.86, -0.48) -- Q2 earnings
-4.0% MLP.GR (MLP €8.45, -0.35) -- earnings
-3.8% HHFA.GR (Hamburger Hafen und Logistik €20.30, -0.80) -- new CEO
-3.7% ARIS.IM (Ariston Holding €4.58, -0.17) -- earnings
-3.4% BAN.IM (BasicNet €7.18, -0.25) -- earnings
-2.9% NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA €5.03, -0.15) -- Q2 earnings
-2.9% ENAV.IM (ENAV €3.83, -0.12) -- earnings
-2.8% APAM.NA (Aperam €25.84, -0.74) -- Q2 earnings
-2.7% MT.NA (ArcelorMittal €27.50, -0.75) -- Q2 earnings
-2.4% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.42, -0.01) -- trading update
-1.8% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €14.80, -0.27) -- Q2 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Umicore (UMI.BB), Fugro (FUR.NA), Brunel International (BRNL.NA)
DACHs: Daimler Truck Holding (DTG.GR), Evonik Industries (EVK.GR), DMG MORI (GIL.GR), MAX Automation (MXHN.GR), CENIT (CSH.GR), Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV)
France: AXA (CS.FP), ENGIE (ENGI.FP), Believe (BLV.FP), ATOS (ATO.FP), Parrot (PARRO.FP)
Nordics: BW Energy (BWE.NO), XXL (XXL.NO)
Ireland: AIB Group (A5G.ID)
Southern Europe: Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL), Talgo (TLGO.SM), ERG (ERG.IM), Carel Industries (CRL.IM), Banca Ifis (IF.IM), Cairo Communication (CAI.IM), Biesse (BSS.IM), FNM (FNM.IM), Banca Sistema (BST.IM), Aeffe (AEF.IM)
UK: International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), Intertek Group (ITRK.LN), Pearson (PSON.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), IMI (IMI.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Bonduelle (BON.FP)
UK: National Atomic Company Kazatomprom (KAP.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jun Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 6.3% and prior revised 6.2% from 6.3%
Germany Jul
Prelim CPI +2.0% y/y vs cons +1.9% and prior +2.0%; +0.3% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior 0.0%
EU Harmonised: +1.8% y/y vs cons +1.8% and prior +2.0%; +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.4% and prior +0.1%
Unemployment Change +2K vs consensus +15K and prior +11K
Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.3%
Italy
Jun Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs cons 6.4% and prior 6.5%
Jun PPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +1.7%; +1.5% m/m vs cons (0.4%) and prior (0.7%)
Jul Prelim CPI +1.7% y/y vs cons +1.5% and prior +1.7%; +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.2%
EU Harmonised: +1.7% y/y vs cons +1.6% and prior +1.8%; (1.0%) m/m vs cons (1.0%) and prior +0.2%
France
Jul Prelim CPI +1.0% y/y vs cons +1.0% and prior +1.0%; +0.2% m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior +0.4%
EU Harmonised: +0.9% y/y vs cons +0.8% and prior +0.9%; +0.3% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior +0.4%
Jun PPI +0.2% y/y vs cons +0.2% and prior revised 0.0% from +0.2%; (0.2%) m/m vs cons (0.3%) and prior revised (0.9%) from (0.8%)
Switzerland Jun Retail Sales +3.8% y/y vs cons +0.4% and prior revised +0.3% from 0.0%; +1.6% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior (0.6%)
Ireland Jul prelim HICP +1.6% y/y vs cons +1.7% and prior +1.6%; +0.2% m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior +0.5%
Portugal Jul Prelim CPI +2.6% y/y vs cons +2.3% and prior +2.4%; (0.4%) m/m vs cons (0.7%) and prior +0.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 25): ($1.23) or (1.76%) to $68.77
€-$ +0.0040 or +0.35% to 1.1445
£-$ (0.0005) or (0.04%) to 1.3231
€-£ +0.0032 to 0.8649
S&P 500 +0.42%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +11.71%
DAX: +20.88%
CAC: +5.30%
MIB: +19.90%
Stoxx 600: +7.57%
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