Jul 31 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat amid Asian equities mixed Thursday. Greater China markets lagging with Hang Seng extending pullback following soft PMIs. No traction on Korean market from trade deal with autos under pressure. Japan rebounding while Australia and Taiwan benchmarks little changed. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures strengthening with MSFT and META seeing big afterhours gains following earnings. Treasuries and JGBs little changed while Aussie curve bear flattening. Dollar weakening against other currencies. Crude flat. Gold remains lower. NY copper extending losses following record fall in cash session. Bitcoin remains range bound.
In geopolitical developments, President Trump announced South Korea trade deal establishing 15% tariff that will also apply to autos. Added that South Korea will invest $350B in US, commit to purchases of LNG and accept American autos and agricultural products. Separately, Trump threatened 25% tariff on India but said talks continuing. Trump watered down 50% Brazil tariffs by excluding aircraft, energy and orange juice. Trump's 50% copper tariff less severe than feared after excluding refined products. Commerce Secretary revealed trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand.
In central banks, Swiss National Bank releases Q2 earnings. Ukraines Zelenskiy and Finland's President Stubb set to attend the Helsinki+50 conf. Elsewhere, Norway's Minister of Agriculture and Food Sandtrøen participates in Trøndelag Food Festival and PM Støre will speak at 15:00CET at AUF's summer camp on Utøya.
Macroeconomic updates include: Germany Jul unemployment change, preliminary CPI, France Jul preliminary CPI, Jun PPI, Italy Jul preliminary CPI, Jun unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone Jun unemployment rate, Switzerland Jun retail sales, Denmark Jun unemployment rate, Portugal Jul preliminary CPI, Jun unemployment rate, retail sales, Greece Jun unemployment rate, May retail sales, Ireland Jul preliminary HICP
In corporate news, French companies kicked off the session with Ipsen (IPN.FP), Safran (SAF.FP), Societe Generale (GLE.FP), Credit Agricole (ACA.FP), Renault (RNO.FP), Bouygues (EN.FP), SPIE (SPIE.FP), Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP), Legrand (FR.FP) reporting their latest earnings. Also, Airbus SE (AIR.FP) and VINCI SA (DG.FP) released Q2/H1 earnings yesterday after the close. In the DACH region, Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR), Clariant (CLN.SW), Covestro (1COV.GR), ams-OSRAM (AMS.SW), Nemetschek Group (NEM.GR), Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR), Heidelberg Materials (HEI.GR) are also out with their latest numbers. In Southern Europe, Prysmian (PRY.IM), Leonardo (LDO.IM), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM) posted Q2 numbers. From the Benelux, Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA), ArcelorMittal (MT.NA) and UCB (UCB.BB) released their most recent earnings.
CMD/events: Claranova (CLA.FP) webinar at 18:30CET in connection with release of annual revenue and the "What's Next?" strategic plan.
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- reports Q2 adj EBIT €1.58B vs consensus €1.47B; FY25 guidance unchanged
SAF.FP (Safran) -- reports H1 EPS €3.80 vs FactSet €3.81 [3 est, €3.30-4.23]; upgrades its FY25 outlook
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- reports H1 net income attributable €1.90B vs FactSet €1.95B [4 est, €1.88-2.01B]
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- reports H1 Core EPS €6.07 vs FactSet €5.52 [1 est]
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- reports Q2 net income €1.45B vs consensus €1.19B
AKE.FP (Arkema) -- reports Q2 EPS €1.56 ex-items vs consensus €1.68; adjusts guidance and doubles its target for fixed and variable cost savings in 2025
LI.FP (Klepierre) -- reports H1 net current cash flow per share €1.32 vs year-ago €1.25
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports H1 net income €97M vs FactSet €144.5M [4 est, €65-237M]; 2025 traffic assumptions, forecasts and targets confirmed
ELIS.FP (Elis) -- reports H1 net income €152.5M, +29% vs year-ago €118.5M
BB.FP (Bic) -- reports H1 adj EPS €2.35 vs consensus €2.32; confirms FY25 outlook
FDJU.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- reports H1 adjusted net income €222M, (6%) vs year-ago €235M
EMEIS.FP (Emeis SA) -- reports H1 EBITDAR €401M, +18% vs year-ago €339M
MF.FP (Wendel) -- reports H1 net income from operations €356.8M, +4% vs year-ago €343.4M
VU.FP (VusionGroup) -- reports H1 sales €612.9M vs year-ago €408.9M; FY outlook confirmed
ERA.FP (Eramet) -- reports H1 net income (€152M) vs FactSet (€113M) [1 est]
LOCAL.FP (Solocal Group) -- reports H1 net income €5.5M vs year-ago (€34M)
MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- reports H1 net income €32.7M vs year-ago €81.8M
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- reports H1 net income €75.9M, (20%) vs year-ago €94.4M
ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- reports Q2 net income €2.39B vs consensus €2.03B
RNO.FP (Renault) -- reports H1 net income €0.5M ex-items vs FactSet (€10.60B) [2 est, (€10.71)-(10.49B)]
SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- reports H1 adjusted net income €166.6M, +6% vs year-ago €157.6M
EN.FP (Bouygues) -- reports H1 net income €173M, (7%) vs year-ago €186M; confirms FY outlook
LR.FP (Legrand) -- reports H1 net income €628.1M, +9% vs year-ago €577.6M; raises FY guidance
VIE.FP (Veolia Environnement) -- reports H1 Current Net Income €762M vs StreetAccount €728M; 2025 guidance and GreenUp plan fully confirmed
Benelux
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- reports Q2 net income €1.68B vs consensus €1.55B; increases FY25 outlook for ROE from >12.0% to ~12.5%
AMG.NA (AMG Critical Materials) -- reports Q2 net income $11.5M vs FactSet $20.1M [2 est, $16-24.2M]; increase its adj EBITDA outlook
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- reports Q2 adj EBITA €114.8M vs FactSet €116.9M
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- reports Q2 Adjusted EBITDA €610M vs consensus €609.0M; Animal Nutrition & Health exit process entering its final stages
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- reports Q2 EPS $1.32 vs StreetAccount $1.53
UCB.BB UCB reports H1 Core EPS €3.53 vs consensus €3.48; raises FY guidance including for revenues to reach at least €7B vs prior guidance €6.5-6.7B and FactSet €6.71B
ABI.BB ( Anheuser-Busch InBev) -- reports Q2 Underlying EPS $0.98 vs consensus $0.95
DACHs
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- reports Q2 recurring EBIT CHF955M vs StreetAccount CHF926.3M
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- reports H1 Core net income attributable CHF226M vs FactSet CHF77.2M [1 est]; Medium-term targets confirmed
HAG.GR (HENSOLDT) -- reports H1 adjusted EBITDA €107M, +4% vs year-ago €103M
COTN.SW (COMET Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF7.9M vs FactSet CHF17.5M [1 est]; Lowers FY guidance
ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik) -- reports Q1 EPS (€1.55) vs year-ago (€0.99)
KARN.SW (Kardex Holding) -- reports H1 net income €36.1M vs FactSet €33.8M [1 est]
INRN.SW (Interroll Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF21.2M vs FactSet CHF25.5M [1 est]
AAD.GR (Amadeus FiRe) -- confirms prelim H1 earnings as per 23-Jul
KBX.GR (Knorr-Bremse) -- reports Q2 operating EBIT €262M vs StreetAccount €247.0M; adjusts FY25 revenue range due to currency translation effects solely, confirms Fy25 operating EBIT and cash flow guidance
FPE3.GR (FUCHS SE) -- reports H1 net income €144M, (7%) vs year-ago €155M; revenue, EBIT and outlook in line with 15-Jul prelim announcement
CLN.SE (Clariant) -- reports Q2 adj. EBITDA CHF169M vs consensus CHF131.0M; lowers FY sales guidance, reaffirms adj. EBITDA margin
1COV.GR (Covestro) -- reports Q2 net income (€59M) vs FactSet (€40.0M) [2 est, (€56)-(23.9M)]; lowers FY guidance including for EBITDA to be between €700M and €1.1B vs prior guidance €1.0-1.4B and FactSet €965.11M
AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM) -- reports Q2 EPS €0.18 vs FactSet €0.09 [3 est, €0.01-0.20]
NEM.GR (Nemetschek Group) -- confirms prelim Q2 earnings and FY25 outlook as per 24-Jul update
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- reports Q2 net income €1.01B vs consensus €580.1M; reaffirms its FY25 forecast
HEI.GR Heidelberg Materials reports Q2 RCO €1.05B vs consensus €1.03B; reaffirms FY guidance
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- reports Q2 EPS €2.85 vs consensus €2.78; Confirms FY25 guidance
Southern Europe
PRY.IM (Prysmian) -- reports Q2 net income €276M vs StreetAccount €228M; Raises FY financial guidance
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- reports Q2 net income €124M vs consensus €171M; FY25 revenues and EBITA guidance is confimed
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- reports Q2 EPS €0.39 ex-items vs FactSet €0.44 [5 est, €0.39-0.49]
PHM.SM (Pharma Mar) -- reports H1 net income €19.4M vs year-ago €3.1M
BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues) -- reports H1 net income €502.3M, +4% vs year-ago €485.3M
VIS.SM (Viscofan) -- reports Q2 net income €38.4M vs FactSet €35.7M [5 est, €34-40M]
MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International) -- reports Q2 net income €68.8M vs FactSet €39.4M [5 est, €32.1-44M]
GEO.IM (Geox) -- reports H1 adjusted net income (€3.1M) vs FactSet (€3.8M) [1 est]
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- reports Q2 net income attributable €2.75B vs consensus €2.36B; presents its financial goals for 2025-28
UK
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- reports Q2 underlying EPS $0.77 vs FactSet $0.59 [5 est, $0.51-0.68]
M&A
JD (JD.com) -- announces decision to make a voluntary public takeover offer and strategic investment partnership with CECONOMY
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- announces agreement to sell Defense Business to Leonardo for €1.7B
Tata Motors to acquire Iveco Group for approximately €3.8B, excluding Iveco's defence business and net proceeds from the defence business separation
CEC.GR (CECONOMY) -- in final buyout talks with JD.com; offer could come this evening - Reuters
Other
HHFA.GR (Hamburger Hafen und Logistik) -- appoints Jeroen Eijsink as CEO with effect from 1-Oct-25
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- SEC filing: 10-Q
RNO.FP (Renault) -- Group confirms it appoints François Provost as CEO and Director, effective 31-Jul
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- CORRECTION: VINCI SA reports H1 EBIT €4.14B vs FactSet €4.02B [4 est, €3.88-4.12B]
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- Follow-up: Standard Chartered to imminently commence $1.3B share buyback
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- completes third tranche of €300M share buyback program
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ORA.GR (Orange) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
Downgrades
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
WPP.LN (WPP Group) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
VOD.LN (Vodafone Group) --to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
Initiations
SAMPO.FH (Sampo) -- re- buy at DNB Carnegie
Data
Nikkei +1.03% to 41072.90
Hang Seng (1.54%) to 24790.21
Shanghai Composite (0.96%) to 3581.11
S&P futures +58.8 vs prior close of 6396.3
€-$ +0.0031 or +0.27% to 1.1435
$-¥ (0.70) or (0.47%) to 148.81
€-¥ (0.39) or (0.23%) to 170.13
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