Aug 15 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Friday but most finished with solid w/w advances: Among the gainers were the Nikkei and Topix boards and mainland China benchmarks, while there were advances in Australia and Taiwan. On the downside, the Hang Seng sank post China economic data, while Singapore and the rest of Southeast Asia were soft. India and South Korea were closed for holidays. US futures higher, European markets advancing at the open. US dollar notably lower, yen and AUD stronger. Treasury yields mixed. WTI and Brent futures holding on to yesterday's gains. Gold sharply lower, iron ore down after China economic data.
Asia equities diverged Friday amid contrasting economic data. Japan's benchmarks rebounded to reapproach this week's record highs following yesterday's down day after Q2 GDP growth came in above expectations. But the Hang Seng came under renewed pressure after China's July economic activity data broadly weakened and missed expectations. Industrial production and retail sales still grew but were below June's figures, while fixed asset investment contracted by more than 5%. New home prices fell again however there was some outperformance in developer stocks after a report late Thursday said Beijing was considering asking state-owned companies to buy unsold properties.
However, analysts noted the services industry output growth component was still a strong +5.8%, leading some to calculate China's monthly GDP was on track at around 5% y/y, and therefore Beijing was unlikely to follow up with any fresh stimulus programs for now. Elsewhere, Malaysia Q2 GDP growth came in a little below expectations and India's PM Modi promised GST relief for consumers in the coming months.
CK Hutchison (1.HK) said it sees a "reasonable chance" of its $22.8B ports sale progressing. JD.com (9618.HK) showed a beat in its core retail business but larger-than-expected losses in its food delivery business as competition heated up. Ampol (ALD.AU) said it planned to buy EG Group's 500 local gas stations in Australia for A$1.1B ($714M).
Digest:
China activity slows by more than expectations:
Headline July activity metrics were broadly weaker than expected. Industrial production rose 5.7% y/y, below consensus 6.0%. Follows 6.8% in the previous month and marks the lowest growth since November. Integrated circuits, passenger cars and smartphones were positive while crude steel, PCs fell. Retail sales grew 3.7% vs consensus 4.6%, following 4.8% in prior month for the softest YTD. Goods sales held back mainly by cars and fuel, while catering growth remained depressed. Government trade-in subsidies remained the key underlying support factor. Fixed asset investment faded notably to 1.6% YTD from 2.8%. Consensus 2.7% was notably off in back-to-back months. Key segments continued to soften -- infrastructure waned sharply to 3.2% from 4.6%, manufacturing slowed to 6.2% from 7.5%, while closely watched real estate contraction deepened to 12.0% from 11.2%. Reflects ongoing deterioration in aggregate sales and funding, while declines in new construction starts remained well in double digits. Unemployment rate rose to 5.2% vs consensus 5.1% and prior 5.0%. Recall that stimulus expectations largely tied to US tariff risks. Policy motivation was viewed to have receded after H1 economic growth momentum remained relatively resilient. Consensus 2025 growth forecasts recovered after the first US-China tariff truce, though there have been no notable developments since the 90-day extension with an average forecast of 4.6% (Reuters), remaining below the government target of around 5%.
China new home prices extend decline in July:
New home prices in China fell 0.3% m/m in July based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, at same pace as prior month. Prices were down 2.8% y/y, compared with 3.2% drop in June. Bloomberg added slump in values of second-hand homes unexpectedly narrowed to 0.55%, compared with 0.61% in June. Fall in new and second-hand home prices were across top-tier and lower-tier cities, except Shanghai which saw its new homes record gains from June and year-ago. Bloomberg noted downward spiral in property market has extended for five years with no signs of easing amid falling property values, households in financial distress and developers laden with debt. Added China Evergrande's (1333.HK) delisting from HKSE on 25-Aug seen as bleak milestone for property sector. There were calls for additional policy support as effects of stimulus blitz last September tapered off. Recall Bloomberg broke story yesterday that authorities were considering asking central SOEs and bad debt managers to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers. Moves are still under discussion while initial market reactions were largely positive with both Hang Seng Mainland Property Index and CSI Mainland Real Estate Index jumping on Friday morning.
Japan Q2 GDP beats, prior quarter revised to expansion:
GDP grew 1.0% q/q annualized in Q2, above consensus 0.4%. Prior quarter was revised to a 0.6% expansion from 0.2% contraction. Main surprises and growth drivers came in capex and external demand, partially offset by a drag from private inventories. Private consumption extended streak of marginal growth. Bounce in durables negated by back-to-back declines in non-durables while services were little changed. Public demand leaned negative for the third straight quarter. Employee compensation rebounded from the previous drop, continuing its up-and-down pattern in recent quarters. Amid ongoing attention on inflation, GDP deflator eased to +3.0% y/y from +3.3% as the domestic demand deflator also moderated. Nominal GDP expanded 5.1% q/q annualized with components led by private residential investment and capex. Private consumption tracking somewhat firmer though still at a sub-1% pace. Early takeaways were positive after previews had focused on the risk of a technical recession based on prior contraction in Q1 and limited optimism toward Q2. However, uncertainties continue going forward with consensus currently pointing to flat growth in Q3 reflecting lack of clear near-term growth drivers.
India PM Modi pushes for self-reliance and vows to protect farmers amid US tariffs:
In his address on India's 79th Independence Day, PM Modi urged country to move towards more self-reliance, design and produce high-quality goods at home, from fertilizers to jet engines to EV batteries (Reuters, Bloomberg). Vowed to protect interests of farmers, fishermen, cattle rearers, calling them his "top priorities" as Washington hit New Delhi with a 50% tariff rate, much higher than regional peers when trade talks between two sides stalled, largely due to disagreements over imports of US agricultural products and India's purchases of Russian oil. Modi added India's macro-economic fundamentals remain strong with inflation under control and an adequate FX reserve. Will cut consumption tax for first time since it was introduced in 2017 to boost demand with new changes to be unveiled around Diwali in October. Modi also said home-made semiconductor chips will hit market by year-end and country is pushing for self-reliance in producing critical minerals with exploration underway at more than 1,200 locations.
Malaysia's Q2 GDP reading shows steady growth but marginally misses forecasts:
Malaysia's central bank (BNM) said country's economy grew 4.4% y/y in Q2 on higher household demand, stronger labor market conditions. Figure slightly below government's advanced estimate, Reuters consensus of 4.5%. Bank lowered FY growth estimate to 4.0-4.8% last month on export uncertainty but said forecasting was challenging amid continued uncertainty from US tariffs, full impact would take time to materialize but noted Malaysia had diversified export structure. Country to see 19% tariff but several sectoral tariffs remain under review by Washington. Said Q2 exports contracted on lower commodity-related shipments offset by strength in electronics sector, robust tourist arrivals. Bank said headline inflation to average 1.5-2.3% this year with inflationary pressures from commodity prices limited. BNM trimmed interest rates in July, released more liquidity into financial sector to boost economic activity ahead of tariff's full impact.
Notable Gainers:
+11.7% 6618.HK (JD Health International): reports H1 with adjusted net income CNY3.57B vs StreetAccount CNY2.80B
+11.2% 6361.JP (Ebara Corp): reports H1 revenue ¥448.77B vs guidance ¥432.00B and year-ago ¥394.54B, launches up-to-¥20B buyback programme for up-to-9.1M shares
+9.9% 9898.HK (Weibo Corporation): reports Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.54 vs StreetAccount $0.43
+7.7% ALD.AU (Ampol): to acquire EG Australia for A$1.1B
+3.8% 2317.TT (Hon Hai Precision Industry): reports Q2 results; EPS NT$3.19 vs FactSet NT$2.71 and revenue NT$1.793T vs FactSet NT$1.789T
Notable Decliners:
-12.7% 4324.JP (Dentsu Group): reports Q2 results; operating profit (¥62.0B) vs FactSet ¥2.26B; lowers FY guidance; to cut around 8% jobs in international business
-10.0% 6750.JP (Elecom): reports Q1 with revenue ¥28.64B vs FactSet ¥29.60B, operating income ¥3.01B vs FactSet ¥3.20B
-9.4% 8253.JP (Credit Saison): reports Q1 earnings with revenue ¥108.96B vs FactSet ¥121.82B
-1.1% 1.HK (CK Hutchison Holdings): reports H1 results; revenue HK$240.66B, +3% vs year-ago HK$232.64B
Data:
Economic:
China July
Industrial production +5.7% y/y vs consensus +6.0% and +6.8% in prior month
Retail sales +3.7% y/y vs consensus +4.6% and +4.8% in prior month
Fixed asset investment (YTD) +1.6% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and +2.8% in prior month
Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.1% and 5.0% in prior month
New house prices (0.3%) m/m vs (0.3%) in prior month (Reuters)
Japan
Q2 GDP +1.0% q/q annualized vs consensus +0.4% and revised +0.6% in prior quarter
GDP +0.3% q/q vs consensus +0.1% and revised +0.1% in prior quarter
June Industrial Production m/m (revised) +2.1% versus +1.7% in prior month
June Retail Sales NSA y/y (5.3%) versus (5.3%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 729.05 or +1.71% to 43378.31
Hang Seng: (249.25) or (0.98%) to 25270.07
Shanghai Composite: 30.33 or +0.83% to 3696.77
Shenzhen Composite: 39.11 or +1.73% to 2300.77
ASX200: 64.80 or +0.73% to 8938.60
KOSPI: Closed
SENSEX: Closed
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.83) or (0.56%) to 146.9370
$-KRW: (2.41) or (0.17%) to 1386.6600
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.23% to 0.6510
$-INR: (0.19) or (0.21%) to 87.5035
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1819
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