Aug 20 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity futures indicate a lower open. Asian equity markets mostly lower and US equity futures also weaker. Bonds mixed. US 10-year yield up 1 bp at 4.32%. Dollar weaker versus Japanese yen, but firmer elsewhere. Oil up. Gold firmer. Industrial metals lower.
US tech sell-off reverberating across Asia and an early influence on European equity market sentiment. Big tech/AI stocks have been on recent record-breaking run lately on earnings momentum that reinforced AI secular growth theme. Pullback has renewed attention on stretched valuations while technicals further supporting notion stocks in overbought territory. Lower rate backdrop another area of focus ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. September rate cut probability has slipped in recent days, but still fairly elevated at ~83%. Market also pricing in just over 50 bp of easing in 2025.
Early macro focus in Europe on UK inflation data due at 7:00 BST. Price pressure and ongoing scrutiny on fiscal policy underpinning UK rates. BoE rate cut expectations also seeing some volatility, though sell-side consensus is still for November rate cut. Germany Jul PPI out at 7:00 BST as well. Eurozone CPI also due at 10:00 BST; July headline forecast to remain around the ECB's 2% target.
In central banks, ECB's Lagarde speaks at 9:10 CET at meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum. Riksbank interest rate decision at 9:30 CET; no change expected in 2.0% benchmark interest rate. Iceland central bank interest rate decision at 10:30 CET; no change expected in 7.5% benchmark interest rate.
In geopolitics, Trump rules out sending US troop to Ukraine as part of security guarantees if a peace deal is agreed, with focus on air support.
Politics/Macro/World News
US, NATO planners start to craft Ukraine security guarantee options (Reuters )
After Putin call, Trump rang Orban over Ukraine EU membership (Bloomberg )
More than 400 product categories added to steel and aluminum tariff list (Reuters, Bloomberg)
UK business minister will travel to China to reopen trade talks in September (Politico )
Top company news
Earnings/updates
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- Q2 net income CHF151.2M vs StreetAccount CHF151.4M
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- Q2 net income DKK260M vs FactSet DKK343.7M [3 est, DKK281-443.0M]
DFDS.DC (DFDS) -- Jul Freight volume +3.4%, +1.2% adjusted for route changes
FACC.AV (FACC) -- Q2 EPS €0.20 vs year-ago €0.13; specifies FY revenue, reaffirms EBIT will continue to increas
KTCG.AV (Kapsch TrafficCom) -- Q1 EPS €0.72 vs year-ago (€0.69); guides FY25
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- Q2 underlying EPS €0.25 vs FactSet €0.24 [10 est, €0.21-0.32]; raises 2025 harvest volume guidance
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- H1 EPS (NOK1.39) vs year-ago (NOK2.73)
EMMN.SW (Emmi) -- H1 net income CHF97.2M vs consensus CHF97.5M; raises FY organic revenue growth based in H1 performance; reaffirms EBIT
DECB.BB (Deceuninck) -- H1 net income €11.5M vs year-ago €8.3M
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- Q2 EPS NOK0.75 ex-items vs FactSet NOK0.62 [11 est, NOK0.45-0.89]
NEXT.NO (Next Biometrics Group) -- Q2 EPS (NOK0.17) vs year-ago (NOK0.06)
ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- H1 operating result per share €3.98 vs consensus €3.61
AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood) -- Q2 EPS NOK1.30 vs FactSet NOK2.18 [8 est, NOK1.43-3.57]; comments on US tariffs
SENS.SW (Sensirion Holding) -- H1 net income CHF10.4M vs year-ago (CHF2.6M)
AFISH.NO (Arctic Fish Holding) -- Q2 underlying EPS (€0.13) vs FactSet (€0.17) [2 est, (€0.19)-(0.15)]; FY25 harvested volume guidance is unchanged
SVEAF.SS (Sveafastigheter) -- Q2 EPS (SEK0.78) vs FactSet SEK0.55 [2 est, SEK0.50-0.60]
ZAP.NO (Zaptec) -- Q2 net income NOK26.5M vs FactSet NOK23.5M [2 est, NOK16.1-31M]
CLOUD.NO (Cloudberry Clean Energy) -- Q2 EPS (NOK0.05) vs FactSet (NOK0.08) [1 est]
M&A
+NOVO.LN (Novomatic) -- notifies Ainsworth (AGI.AU) of intention to make unconditional off-market takeover bid for A$1.00 cash per share
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- Turkish Airlines to acquire Air Europa for €275M - EFE (19-Aug, timing uncertain)
Healthcare
MDGL (Madrigal Pharmaceuticals) -- Madrigal announces European Commission approval of Rezdiffra in MASH with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- Idorsia's TRYVIO (aprocitentan) now included in ACC/AHA Clinical Practice Guidelines for the treatment of hypertension
13.HK (Hutchmed) -- completes patient enrollment for Phase III Trial of ORPATHYS and TAGRISSO as first-line therapy for certain NSCLC patients in China
BANB.SW (Bachem Holding) -- Bachem expands Corporate Executive Committee to include Chief Operations Officer role
Other
ALCAR.FP (CARMAT) -- announces the trading resumption of its shares, starting on 21-Aug-25, at stock market opening
IMB.LN (Imperial Brands) -- US FDA issues marketing denial order for Imperial Brands' Fontem's blu disposable e-cigarette
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- Zurich warns private capital groups expanding in European insurance sector to expect resistance, as life insurance is a medium to long-term business - FT, citing CEO
TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien) -- completes 12.5M-share capital increase at €14.90/sh to raise €185.9M; places €98M tap issue of convertible bonds due 2031
DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co.) -- Transcript Intelligence: Diversified Energy Co. at EnerCom Denver Energy Investment Conference
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- appoints Jean-Laurent Poitou as CEO
JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management) -- completes share buyback program
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ABDN.LN (Aberdeen Group) -- to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets
JYSK.DC (Jyske Bank) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
MULTI.NO (Multiconsult) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
TRIFOR.DC (Trifork Holding) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
UU.LN (United Utilities Group) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
BICO.SS (BICO Group) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
BHP.LN (BHP Group) -- to neutral from buy at Citi
CBRAIN.DC (cBrain) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
SDF.GR (K+S AG) -- to sell from buy at Berenberg
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (1.53%) to 42879.64
Hang Seng (0.30%) to 25047.95
Shanghai Composite +0.33% to 3739.50
S&P futures (20.8) vs prior close of 6432.5
€-$ (0.0008) or (0.07%) to 1.1641
$-¥ (0.21) or (0.14%) to 147.45
€-¥ (0.36) or (0.21%) to 171.62
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