Aug 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly lower. FTSE closed for Bank Holiday. Follows positive performance on Friday, with Stoxx 600 extending gains for the third consecutive week. In sectors, media, travel/leisure holding up better, while constructions and utilities the main laggards.
Focus on less dovish ECB talk with Kazaks and Rehn suggesting no urgency to cut rates further. More skepticism on EU/US trade deal, with reports suggesting violation of WTO principles of reciprocity and non discrimination. ECB's President Lagarde said tariffs may only have a small effect on Europe's GDP; companies will adjust to higher US tariffs. BoE Governor Bailey flagged UK's economic challenges, citing weak growth and post-pandemic workforce decline. Economists cautioned Chancellor Reeves' tax-and-spend policies risk 1970s-style debt crisis.
Light on the data front. Germany August IFO Business Climate improves slightly to 89.0 vs consensus 88.7 and prior 88.6, Current Conditions worsens to 86.4 vs consensus 86.7 and prior 86.5 while Expectations firmer to 91.6 vs consensus 90.2 vs prior revised 90.8 from 90.7. Also, Spanish producer prices up by +0.3% in July vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.8%. Swiss employment up +0.6% in Q2.
In corporate news, US ordered Orsted (ORSTED.DC) to halt Revolution Wind project over national security concerns, which could could raise costs, affect PPAs, and postpone planned capital increase. Group confirmed commitment to proceed with previously announced DKK60B rights issue; appoints consortium of banks. Henkel (HEN3.GR) CEO said in an interview with Rheinische Post to anticipate profitable growth this fiscal year; does not expect widespread price increases like in 2022.
On the M&A newsflow, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) reportedly close to a ~ $18B deal to buy JDE Peet (JDEP.NA). Unicredit (UCG.IM) has converted into shares part of its synthetic position in Commerzbank (CBK.GR) to total ~26% physical equity stake; the remaining synthetic position should be converted into physical shares in due course taking it total equity voting stake in Commerzbank to ~29%.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, France Aug consumer confidence, Sweden Jul PPI and Finland Jul unemployment rate.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Media +0.63%, Travel & Leisure +0.31%, Food & Beverage +0.13%, Basic Resources +0.13%, Financial Svcs +0.12%, Health Care +0.02%, Banks (0.04%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.12%), Technology (0.13%)
Underperformers:
Construct & Mtls (1.17%), Utilities (0.99%), Real Estate (0.45%), Autos & Parts (0.39%), Chemicals (0.36%), Oil & Gas (0.30%), Telecom (0.28%), Insurance (0.25%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.24%), Retail (0.23%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
Euro Zone Can Handle Higher US Tariffs, ECB's Lagarde Tells Fox -- Bloomberg
EU:
What's the EU For? Its Leaders Need a Better Answer -- Bloomberg
UK:
Germany:
Germany's pensions crisis: can €10 a month change how people invest? -- FT
France:
Economic growth in France stalls amid weak business confidence -- interiordaily
Ireland:
Switzerland:
Nervous Swiss ready Trump sweetened offer for tariff pain relief -- Reuters
Greece:
Greek banks considering jointly operating ATMs - ekathimerini
Norway:
Election opinion poll -- TV2
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+27.9% HLEE.SW (Highlight Event & Entertainment) Highlight Communications majority holder HLEE to carry out capital increase by which new investor may acquire majority stake in HLEE
+17.3% JDEP.NA (JDE Peet) -- Keurig Dr Pepper to acquire JDE Peet for €31.85/share in cash
+6.2% OKEA.NO (Okea) -- announces oil discoveries in the Talisker exploration well at the Brage field PL 055
+2.8% ARGX.BB (argenx) -- pivotal ADAPT SERON study of VYVGART meets primary endpoint
+1.8% INLOT.GA (Intralot) -- Bally's announces mandatory tender offer for Intralot becomes unconditional (22-Aug)
+1.5% SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore) -- wins two contract extensions for vessels; combined value ~$65M
+1.4% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- announces the award of a large streamer contract offshore Indonesia
+1.3% ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation for Essity (23-Aug)
+0.9% CVC.NA (CVC.NA) -- Bain, Axight could join forces to bid for La Trobe Financial; CVC among other competing suitors - Australian Financial Review
Notable Decliners
-0.2% BOL.SS (Boliden) -- District Metals Corp. announces Boliden decides to terminate the earn-in and JV agreement on the Tomtebo and Stollberg base metal polymetallic properties
-1.0% METN.SW (Metall Zug) -- H1 net income (CHF10.3M) vs FactSet (CHF1.4M) [1 est]
-1.5%PARKEN.DC (PARKEN Sport & Entertainment) -- reports Q2 EPS (DKK1.43) vs year-ago DKK5.90; reaffirms FY guidance
-2.1% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- proposes governance evolution and reaffirms strategic priorities; announces roadmaps for Tedopi and Lusvertikimab
-16.0% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- US orders Revolution Wind project to stop construction
-21.7% VLA.FP (Valneva) -- announces FDA's decision to suspend license of Chikungunya Vaccine IXCHIQ in the U.S.
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: DEME Group (DEME.BB), Banqup Group (BANQ.BB)
Denmark: Royal Unibrew (RBREW.DC), Vestjysk Bank (VJBA.DC), Fynske Bank (FYNBK.DC)
Germany: Dermapharm Holding (DMP.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Green Hydrogen Systems (3LUA.GR)
Norway: Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO), BW LPG (BWLPG.NO), Cadeler (CADLR.NO), MPC Container Ships (MPCC.NO), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Bouvet (BOUV.NO), Paratus Energy Services (PLSV.NO), Capsol Technologies (CAPSL.NO), Dolphin Drilling (DDRIL.NO)
Other: Moscow Exchange (MOEX.RU)
Sweden: BioInvent International (BINV.SS), Eolus (EOLU.B.SS), AlzeCure Pharma (ALZCUR.SS), Xbrane Biopharma (XBRANE.SS)
Switzerland: Flughafen Zuerich (FHZN.SW), TX Group (TXGN.SW), VP Bank (VPBN.SW), Arbonia (ARBN.SW), Kudelski (KUD.SW)
UK: Prudential (PRU.LN), Ashtead Technology Holdings (AT.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Aug IFO
Business Climate 89.0 vs consensus 88.7 and prior 88.6
Current Conditions 86.4 vs consensus 86.7 and prior 86.5
Expectations 91.6 vs consensus 90.2 vs prior revised 90.8 from 90.7
Spain Jul PPI +0.3% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.8%
Finland Jul PPI (1.5%) vs consensus (2.0%) and prior (1.8%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 25): +$1.06 or +1.67% to $64.72
€-$ (0.0042) or (0.36%) to 1.1685
£-$ (0.0026) or (0.19%) to 1.3499
€-£ (0.0012) to 0.8658
S&P 500 (0.04%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +14.05%
DAX: +21.86%
CAC: +6.21%
MIB: +26.48%
Stoxx 600: +10.07%
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