Sep 15 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly in positive territory. In politics, Germany's far-right AfD made strong electoral gains in the municipal election in the most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia. Ruling CDU remained the biggest party with 33.3% of the vote, but AfD saw support nearly triple to 14.5%. Election will not have a direct effect on national politics yet underscores the national mood. Both CDU and SPD have seen a drop in support since forming a government. Chancellor Merz has promised reforms, but coalition has argued over changes to welfare and the implementation of its infrastructure fund has been slow. Some political analysts said the results might be an indication of political center failing to hold and it could usher more right-wing policies. In France, French bond spread a bit wider after Fitch cut France's sovereign credit rating after Friday's close. Rating now at A+ versus prior AA-, with stable outlook. Highlighted rising public indebtedness constrains capacity for new shocks without further deterioration public finances. Pointed to increased fragmentation and polarization of domestic policy also weakens ability to deliver substantial fiscal consolidation and makes it unlikely fiscal deficit will be brought down to 3% of GDP by 2029, as targeted by outgoing government. New French PM Lecornu continues to show willingness to compromise, but it is unlikely to improve the fiscal position. Will drop predecessor's plan to cut two public holidays, which was unpopular on the left. Leftwing Socialists key to whether a Lecornu government could pass a budget and survive. A FT reports noted that given debt fears, some French companies are now able to borrow debt below the government. Fitch thinks the scope for fiscal consolidation and concessions might also be limited with run-up to the presidential election in 2027 also in the mind of politicians.
In the UK, PM Starmer is looking to regain the initiative after being warned he could face a leadership challenge if he does not turn around the government. Following the resignation of deputy PM Rayner and the sacking of Lord Mandelson's over links to Epstein, Starmer will use an appearance on Monday to talk up deals with the US ahead of this week's Trump visit. The BBC reported the UK and US are set to sign an agreement aimed at accelerating the development of nuclear power. In addition, Britain announced investment from Paypal (PYPL), Bank of America (BAC) and others, while Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI (~+OPENAI~) expected to announce investment as part of a technology agreement
In M&A news, on Friday afternoon wires reported that Rubis (RUI,FP) is attracting interest from CVC and Trafigura whilst - in Germany - local press wrote that a US investor raised the idea of Adidas (ADS.GR) and Puma (PUM.GR) merging and Rheinmetall (RHM.GR) agreed key terms with Lürssen Group for the acquisition of Naval Vessels Lürssen; in another deal, J Sainsbury (SBRY.LN) terminated talks about Argos with JD.com (JD). On the reporting front, S4 Capital (SFOR.LN and Virbac (VIRP.FP) posted H1 earnings, whilst Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS) announced organizational updates and further details around the potential spin-off of Octave; of note, Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) semaglutide 7.2 mg is superior to placebo and 2.4 mg for bodyweight reduction in adults with obesity
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Banks +1.22%, Financial Svcs +1.09%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.90%, Retail +0.87%, Technology +0.80%, Real Estate +0.78%, Basic Resources +0.71%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.66%, Utilities +0.65%, Travel & Leisure +0.44%
Underperformers: Health Care (1.01%), Food & Beverage (0.69%), Telecom (0.55%), Chemicals (0.06%), Autos & Parts (0.02%), Media +0.21%, Insurance +0.24%, Construct & Mtls +0.24%, Oil & Gas +0.30%
Macro:
UK and US to announce tech, energy deals during Trump visit (Reuters)
Trump's Love of UK Royalty Is Starmer's Best Hope of Making Ties Special Again (BBG)
Germany state elections: AfD makes gains, Greens fall behind (dw)
How Emmanuel Macron's France became Europe's fiscal problem child (FT)
Tory MP and shadow minister Danny Kruger defects to Reform (BBC)
Italy's leftist MEPs plot their escapes back home (Politico)
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Moscow claims Nato is 'fighting against Russia' after drones enter Romanian airspace (Ind)
Conor McGregor forced to pull out of Irish presidential race (Telegraph)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+62.4% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.10, +0.04) -- collaboration agreement with Tempus AI, Inc.
+12.7% AO.LN (AO World £0.94, +0.11) -- AGM trading update
+7.5% KGH.LN (Knights Group Holdings £1.56, +0.11) -- FY earnings
+6.9% SWP.FP (Sword Group €36.70, +2.35) -- acquires Bubble Go
+5.7% KER.FP (Kering €254.55, +13.80) -- Francesca Bellettini expected to take helm of Gucci -- WWD, citing sources
+4.8% AM.FP (Dassault Aviation €303.60, +13.80) -- Indian Defence Ministry has received and started discussions on proposal for acquiring 114 'Made in India' Rafale fighter jets -- Times of India
+3.9% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.66, +0.06) -- Development agreement with X-Energy
+3.9% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.66, +0.03) -- PancreaSure Test adopted by Inova Schar Cancer high-risk surveillance program
+3.8% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK346.30, +12.70) -- Ardian, EQT and American Tower among possible suitors for TDF Infrastructure - FT
+3.7% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK820.40, +29.60)
+3.7% SBRY.LN (J Sainsbury £3.19, +0.11) -- terminates talks about Argos with JD.com
+3.0% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €76.50, +2.25)
+2.5% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €1,944.00, +47.00) -- geopolitcs; agrees acquisition of Naval Vessels Lürssen
+2.3% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF33.06, +0.73) -- may buy/merge with US bank in combination with HQ move - NY Post
+1.9% MPE.LN (M.P. Evans Group £13.15, +0.25) -- H1 earnings
+1.2% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.17, -0.00) -- secures public funding in Brazil for Obesity Phase 2 Trial and signs agreements with local clinical partners
Notable Decliners
-20.2% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £0.19, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-12.8% BGO.LN (Bango £1.03, -0.15) -- H1 earnings
-7.8% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics £0.08, -0.01) -- raises £1.5M through new share issue
-2.8% VIRP.FP (Virbac €316.50, -9.00)
-2.4% BT.A.LN (BT Group £2.01, -0.05)
-1.1% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK198.15, -2.15) -- launches ~DKK60B rights issue
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
DACHs: Newron Pharmaceuticals (NWRN.SW), MPH Health Care (93M1.GR)
France: Assystem (ASY.FP), Transgene (TNG.FP)
Nordics: Roblon (RBLN.B.DC)
UK: JTC (JTC.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Harworth Group (HWG.LN), Fintel (FNTL.LN), MJ Gleeson (GLE.LN), Eleco (ELCO.LN), EKF Diagnostics Holdings (EKF.LN), Personal Group Holdings (PGH.LN), Springfield Properties (SPR.LN), Eagle Eye Solutions Group (EYE.LN), Headlam Group (HEAD.LN), tinyBuild (TBLD.LN), Knights Group Holdings (KGH.LN)
Trading Update: UK: Sthree (STEM.LN)
Traffic: VINCI (DG.FP)
CMD/events: Schaeffler (SHA0.GR), CPH Group (CPHN.SW), FACC (FACC.AV), VNV Global (VNV.SS), Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (SOBI.SS) business update call, Givaudan (GIVN.SW) Q3 pre-close roundtables
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jul Trade Balance €12.4B vs consensus €11.7B and prior €7.0B
Italy Jul Trade Balance €7.91B vs consensus €5.5B and prior revised €5.38B from €5.41B
Norway Aug Trade Balance NOK60.1B vs consensus NOK55.1B and prior revised NOK54.6 from NOK54.0B
Switzerland Aug PPI (1.8%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (0.9%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 25): +$0.59 or +0.94% to $63.28
€-$ +0.0032 or +0.27% to 1.1765
£-$ +0.0042 or +0.31% to 1.3597
€-£ (0.0003) to 0.8652
S&P 500 +0.45%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +13.51%
DAX: +19.29%
CAC: +6.99%
MIB: +25.94%
Stoxx 600: +9.76%
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