Sep 18 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities largely inverted yesterday's performances: Strong gains for South Korea, Taiwan and Japan on read through from the Fed cut and somewhat hawkish commentary overnight. Australia dragged lower by domestic energy plays after Santos takeover deal scrapped. Reversals for the Hang Seng and mainland China boards, Southeast Asia mixed, India with modest gains. US futures higher, Europe opened with solid gains. US dollar paring early gains, AUD and yen flat, NZD underperforming after Q2 GDP miss. Treasury yields mostly lower. Crude oil, precious metals and base metals all down. Cryptocurrencies higher.
Asia equities largely reversing yesterday's performances as technology shares ex China bounced while the Hang Seng and mainland China boards ended lower. Technology stocks outperformed again to push the Kospi, Taiex and Nikkei to fresh record highs intraday, mirroring the Nasdaq moves post Fed announcement. The Fed's decision to trim base rate 25 bps largely priced in per se however Powell's hawkish-leaning comments probably not, leading to a modest dollar strengthening in Asia Thursday to cap gains. Nevertheless, US futures ticking higher for now to lend support into the week's close.
In regional developments, China kept its benchmark 7D reverse repo rate unchanged as softer growth kept alive prospects for easing later this year. Hong Kong's monetary authority cut its base rate 25 bp to mirror the Fed's action. New Zealand Q2 GDP contracted by more than expected, reinforcing market expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts by year-end. Australian employment unexpectedly fell in August although the unemployment rate remained steady amid a decline in the participation rate. Japan core machinery orders were weaker-than-expected. Beijing told its technology companies to stop using Nvidia's AI chips although also dropped an antitrust probe into Google as trade talks continue.
China Mobile (941.HK) said it had received valid acceptances for shares equivalent to a 48.2% stake in HKBN (1310.HK). South Korea's competition regulator has conditionally approved a joint venture between Shinsegae (004170.KS) and Alibaba's (9988.HK) AliExpress unit but noted a 'significant worry' over independence and data sharing. A consortium led by Adnoc has dropped its offer to buy Santos (STO.AU) over regulatory hurdles; stock sharply lower.
Digest:
PBOC keeps main policy rate unchanged after Fed rate cut:
PBOC injected CNY487B ($68.56B) worth of 7D reverse repos via OMOs Thursday, keeping rate steady at 1.40% from previous operation, hours after US Fed lowered rates by quarter-point as Chinese policymakers appear in no rush for monetary easing (Reuters). Analysts pointed to resilient exports and stock market rally, which allowed authorities to withhold fresh boost for now, despite series of weak macro data. Nomura said strong stimulus could risk fueling a stock bubble, while PBOC may deliver modest 10 bp rate cut in coming weeks if markets correct. ANZ still expected some chances of easing in Q4 to boost economy to hit "around 5%" growth target. Caixin reported former chief of PBOC statistic department Sheng Songcheng said lowering RRR will be better option for China's monetary policy than cutting policy rates under current economic circumstances, noting record-low margins for commercial banks and lowinterest rate elasticity for country's consumption and investment.
China drops probe into Google, concentrating on Nvidia as its trade bargaining chip:
FT sources said China's State Administration for Market Regulation has dropped an anti-trust probe into Google (GOOGL) that was launched in February and focused on dominance of Android operating system. Decision to withdraw probe seen as conciliatory move by Beijing demonstrating flexibility in trade talks with US while at same allowing it focus on Nvidia (NVDA) as main bargaining chip. Beijing has been increasing scrutiny on Nvidia, having reportedly ordered tech firms to stop buying company's chips including not just H20s but latest RTX Pro 6000D chip designed for China (FT, Bloomberg). China this week also accused Nvidia of violating anti-monopoly laws in relation to acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020 (NY Times). Beijing's actions against Nvidia ostensibly aimed at encouraging adoption of homegrown chips and reports this have highlighted advances by Alibaba (9988.HK) (SCMP) and Huawei (Bloomberg). However, China tech insiders concede they remain reliant on Nvidia's superior technology. CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment at latest developments but also nodded to larger agenda at play between US and China (CNBC). Media sources revealed how US negotiators at Madrid rejected another request by China for full removal of tariffs and export controls.
Indonesia president came close to declaring martial law last month, believes BI should be subordinate to government:
Indonesia's President Prabowo considered declaring martial law during last month's social unrest but instead decided to portion blame on country's billionaires, sideline political rivals, and address inequality, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Replacement of finance minister Indrawati with Purbaya Sadewa, who believes Indonesia could take on more debt and that Bank Indonesia (BI) should be subordinate to government, said to be first step. Report comes just day after BI surprised markets with 25 bps base rate cut and government slashed FY25 growth target (Tempo). Analysts said they expect more aggressive easing by BI after noting Governor Warjiyo's comments on boosting growth, as well as recent liquidity injections, government bond purchases (Reuters). Survey showed terminal rate now 4.0% from 4.5% prior to Wednesday's decision. Thursday, Indonesia government raised 2026 budget deficit target to 2.68% from 2.48% of GDP on higher government spending plans (Bloomberg).
New Zealand GDP contracts by more than forecast, strengthening rate cut expectations:
New Zealand Q2 GDP contracted 0.9% q/q compared to 0.9% growth in Q1 and worse than 0.3% decline projected. On a y/y basis, GDP shrunk 0.6% compared to consensus for a flat read. Main contributor to the contraction came from 3.5% slump in manufacturing (transport, machinery and equipment). Construction shrank at a quicker pace. Services industries flat after making positive contribution in Q1, led by declines in financial, business and healthcare services. By expenditure, growth in household consumption slowed amid tepid housing market and rising unemployment. Government spending made negligible contribution. Trade sector detracted from growth with export declines quickening amid broader tariff-related headwinds. Initial takeaways viewed data as supporting case for a 50 bp RBNZ rate cut in October with economists seeing downside risks to terminal rate forecast of 2.50% (vs current OCR of 3.00%). Market fully pricing in 25 bp cuts in October and November, with around 33% chance of 50 bp reduction in October (Bloomberg).
BOJ widely expected to remain on hold tomorrow, focus largely on October meeting:
Nikkei front-page article reported BOJ expected to keep rates steady tomorrow as board members continue to mull over US tariff effects on wages, business investment and the domestic economy. Sources said board members have widely expressed the view that it is too soon to raise rates, consistent with market expectations. Following the US-Japan trade deal, BOJ looking closely at earnings guidance revisions among exporters such as automakers. Article recalled recent rhetoric from Deputy Governor Himino indicating some caution towards bigger than expected impacts. Inflation also remains elevated, though BOJ maintains that pressures are temporary. Some board members believe economic data due in October (BOJ Tankan, branch managers meeting) could offer reason to hike, fitting with market forecasts for a move as early as October. Story also mentioned political upheaval with Prime Minister Ishiba announcing his resignation, though there were no specific implications. FX raised as another factor, where delaying rate hike could place yen under pressure, prompting some government officials to call for BOJ to act soon. Recall that market forecasts are split between October and December. Earlier discussions noted that an October move would be predicated on sufficient strength in the upcoming data.
Notable Gainers:
+68.6% 1310.HK (HKBN Ltd.): China Mobile has received valid acceptances for shares equivalent to 48.2% stake in HKBN
+9.1% 2408.TT (Nanya Technology): upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley (
+5.5% 066570.KS (LG Electronics): rumor company joins Tesla's Optimus Robot supply chain
+1.9% 1519.HK (J&T Global Express): announces up to HK$1B share buyback for up to 889.7M class B shares using general mandate
Notable Decliners:
-9.1% 100090.KS (SK Oceanplant): holder Song Mu-seok decreases holding to 15.5% from 20.1%
-6.2% 1918.HK (Sunac China Holdings): China Jan-Aug government land sale revenue falls y/y
-5.2% 9531.JP (Tokyo Gas): downgraded to neutral at Daiwa Securities
-0.7% 7211.JP (Mitsubishi Motors): FleetPartners Group confirm increase in minority investment from Mitsubishi Motors to 19.93% at purchase price of A$3.10/share
Data:
Economic:
Japan July
Core machinery orders (4.6%) m/m vs consensus (1.5%) and +3.0% in prior month
Australia August
Employment (5.4K) m/m vs consensus +21.0K and +24.5K in July
Unemployment rate 4.2% vs consensus 4.2% and 4.2% in July
Participation rate 66.8% vs consensus 67.0% and 67.0% in July
New Zealand Q2
GDP (0.9%) q/q vs consensus (0.3%) and revised +0.9% in Q1
GDP (0.6%) y/y vs consensus 0.0% and (0.7%) in Q1
Markets:
Nikkei: 513.05 or +1.15% to 45303.43
Hang Seng: (363.54) or (1.35%) to 26544.85
Shanghai Composite: (44.68) or (1.15%) to 3831.66
Shenzhen Composite: (30.33) or (1.21%) to 2480.19
ASX200: (73.30) or (0.83%) to 8745.20
KOSPI: 47.90 or +1.40% to 3461.30
SENSEX: 161.49 or +0.20% to 82855.20
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.19 or +0.13% to 147.1930
$-KRW: +4.01 or +0.29% to 1384.7200
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.12%) to 0.6638
$-INR: +0.30 or +0.35% to 88.1147
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.04% to 7.1066
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