Jul 13 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher and just off the session's highest levels. Basic Resources, Technology and Media were the best performing sectors, while Construction/Materials and Retail lagged.
ECB minutes from June showed broad consensus for 25 bp hike with inflation still seen as too high. Dovish ECB official Visco said not very far from peak in interest rates. Elsewhere, BoE's Q2 credit conditions survey showed availability of secured credit to households decreased in the three months to end-May 2023, reflecting a tightening in credit conditions amid rapid pace of rate tightening.
The German government announced a new framework for relations with China after critics said it had been too complacent over emergence of new threats. IEA cut its 2023 global energy demand forecast on concerns about increasing economic headwinds.
Macro data focus in Europe on monthly UK activity data, which was not as weak as forecast. Survey by German economic institute showed deterioration in confidence among firms. Eurozone industrial production sees slight miss in May. Latest RICS survey showed UK home buyers pulling back from market after jump in rates.
In corporate news, Swatch Group (UHR.SW) closed higher after posting H1 net income CHF498M, +56% y/y and beating consensus whilst VAT Group (VACN.SW) H1 revenue missed. Out of the Nordics, Aker BP (AKRBP.NO) posted Q2 EPS $0.63 vs FactSet $0.77 and updated FY production; Bufab (BUFAB.SS) Q2 earnings beat. In the UK, Barratt Developments (BVED.LN) said in its trading update that adjusted PBT is anticipated to be in line with current market expectations; Experian (EXPN.LN) Q1 Trading Update: Organic Revenue Growth +5% vs consensus +4.9% and confirmed FY guidance; Hays (HAS.LN) reported Q4 LFL Net Fee Growth (2%) in line with consensus; Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG.LN) reported FY adjusted EPS 52.3p vs FactSet 52.2p and confirmed FY24 guidance.
On M&A front, Enel (ENEL.IM) signed deal to sell 50% of Enel Green Power Australia to INPEX corporation for €400M enterprise value; deal expected to have €87M positive impact on 2023 Group's EBITDA.
Tomorrow's earnings calendar sees updates from Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Topdanmark (TOP.DC), NSI (NSI.NA) and EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +1.70%, Technology +1.69%, Media +1.24%, Utilities +1.08%, Financial Svcs +0.94%, Consumer Products and Services +0.89%, Travel & Leisure +0.88%
Underperformers:
Construct & Mtls (0.21%), Retail (0.19%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.09%, Energy+0.13%, Chemicals +0.29%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.30%, Autos & Parts +0.34%, Telecom +0.43%, Health Care +0.44%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.45%, Insurance +0.49%, Real Estate +0.50%
Macro:
Oil
ECB:
EU:
Statement by President von der Leyen at the joint press conference with President Michel and Prime Minister Kishida following the EU-Japan Summit - link
Germany:
UK:
UK GDP dips 0.1% in May, but not as weak as forecast - ONS
Sunak agrees to public sector pay rises of at least 6% without raising budgets - Guardian; gov link
Four education unions will now put the +6.5% pay increase to members, with a recommendation to accept - gov link
Office for Budget Responsibility publishes Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report - link
UK Government gets go-ahead to challenge the Rwanda deportation policy in the Supreme Court, following it' being blocked by Court of Appeal - link
BoE says 4M households face a jump in mortgage costs - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+17.6% ELABS.NO (Elliptic Laboratories NOK19.34, +2.90) -- earnings
+12.1% TRST.LN (Trustpilot Group £0.76, +0.08) -- trading update
+11.8% GYM.LN (Gym Group £1.01, +0.11) -- trading update
+10.8% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £7.11, +0.69) -- earnings; HSBC upgrade
+8.5% AVG.LN (Avingtrans £4.45, +0.35) -- trading update
+8.0% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK44.38, +3.30) -- earnings
+7.1% ARIX.LN (Arix Bioscience £1.05, +0.07) -- commencement of a Strategic Review to best deliver shareholder value
+6.9% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF289.70, +18.70) -- earnings
+6.9% CEC.GR (CECONOMY €2.74, +0.18) -- Bryan Garnier upgrade
+6.7% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK19.31, +1.21) -- rebound
+6.1% ITAB.SS (ITAB Shop Concept SEK10.50, +0.60) -- earnings
+6.1% VACN.SW (VAT Group CHF373.90, +21.60) -- prelim H1 revenue
+5.7% TFF.FP (TFF Group €43.00, +2.30) -- earnings
+5.5% WAC.GR (Wacker Neuson €23.10, +1.20) -- prelim Q2 earnings; raises guidance for FY23
+5.4% COLL.SS (Norion Bank AB SEK34.40, +1.75) -- earnings
+5.3% SCT.LN (Softcat £14.61, +0.74) -- Citi upgrade
+5.1% JIM.LN (Jarvis Securities £1.54, +0.08) -- H1 earnings
+4.6% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group £3.06, +0.14) --
CEO appointment
Liberum Capital upgrade
+4.2% HTG.LN (Hunting £2.72, +0.11) --
collaboration agreement with CRA-Tubulars BV
Berenberg upgrade
+3.8% BONEX.SS (BONESUPPORT HOLDING SEK138.40, +5.10) -- earnings
+3.6% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK12.89, +0.45) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+3.6% DPLM.LN (Diploma £30.70, +1.06) -- trading update; acquisition
+3.5% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK33.50, +1.12) -- Q2 earnings
+3.5% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK13,350.00, +455.00) -- UBS upgrade
+3.2% FR.FP (Valeo SE €20.79, +0.65) -- Stifel upgrade
+3.0% PPS.LN (Proton Motor Power Systems £0.09, -0.00) -- follow-on order
+2.8% TRIN.LN (Trinity Exploration & Production £0.75, +0.02) -- confirms total net hydrocarbon pay across Forest and Upper Cruse secondary targets of 228 ft at Jacobin prospect
+2.8% THG.LN (THG Plc £0.98, +0.03) -- Kelso Group (KLSO.LN) updates on its investment in THG Plc.
+2.6% FIE.GR (Fielmann €50.45, +1.29) -- prelim H1 earnings
+2.5% WIHN.SW (WISeKey International Holding CHF8.19, +0.20) -- announces pivotal shift in strategic direction by adopting holding company structure
+2.4% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK627.20, +14.80) -- Credit Suisse upgrade
+1.5% NDX1.GR (Nordex €12.28, +0.18) -- Q2 order intake of 1.6 GW
Notable Decliners
-29.2% CI.SS (Cell Impact SEK4.92, -2.03) -- initiates cost reduction program to meet an expected reduced inflow of orders; to review its financial targets
-19.7% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK177.40, -43.40) -- earnings
-18.8% APTD.LN (Aptitude Software Group £2.76, -0.64) -- trading update
-18.7% MMAG.LN (MusicMagpie £0.15, -0.04) -- earnings
-17.6% PLEJD.SS (Plejd AB SEK164.00, -35.00) -- earnings
-13.4% BUFAB.SS (Bufab SEK305.00, -47.00) -- earnings
-12.1% ALMIB.FP (Amoéba €0.60, -0.08) -- announces regulatory timetable for Europe's biocontrol application on track
-8.5% IKA.LN (Ilika Plc £0.33, -0.03) -- earnings
-8.0% XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion SEK294.00, -25.50) -- to close PrimECC study for further patient inclusions; earnings
-7.3% EPR.NO (Europris NOK63.30, -4.95) -- earnings
-7.1% MTRS.SS (Munters Group SEK124.90, -9.60) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-5.1% PPGN.SW (PolyPeptide Group CHF17.44, -0.93) -- prelim H1 revenue
-4.7% CNV.FP (Cnova €3.24, -0.16) -- sales
-4.5% BRK.LN (Brooks MacDonald Group £21.40, -1.00) -- trading update; Numis downgrade
-3.9% ALMDT.FP (MEDIAN Technologies €4.86, -0.19) -- prelim H1 revenue; capital increase
-3.4% AKAST.NO (Akastor NOK11.20, -0.40) -- earnings
-2.9% THEP.FP (Thermador Groupe €80.00, -2.40) -- prelim sales
-2.5% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €3.23, -0.08) -- update on activity in France at 30-Jun-23 and next steps in conciliation process
-2.7% RAL.FP (Rallye €0.94, -0.03)
-2.3% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK84.00, -1.95) -- trial data
-2.1% HAS.LN (Hays Plc £1.02, -0.02) -- Q4 trading update
-1.8% FRA.GR (Fraport €49.74, -0.90) -- Jan traffic
-1.7% SKF.B.SS (SKF SEK186.30, -3.20) -- BofA downgrade
-1.6% BDEV.LN (Barratt Developments £4.11, -0.07) -- trading update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: NSI (NSI.NA)
DACH: EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW)
Denmark: Topdanmark (TOP.DC)
Finland: Elisa (ELISA.FH), With Secure (WITH.FH)
Norway: Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Norske Skog (NSKOG.NO), Orkla (ORK.NO), Storebrand (STB.NO), Philly Shipyard (PHLY.NO), XXL (XXL.NO), Carasent (CARA.NO), Elkem (ELK.NO), Entra (ENTRA.NO), Aker BioMarine (AKBM.NO), Tomra Systems (TOM.NO)
Sweden: Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), EQT (EQT.SS), Axfood (AXFO.SS), Arjo (ARJO.B.SS), Pandox (PNDX.B.SS), Lammhults Design Group (LAMM.B.SS), Traction (TRAC.B.SS), Nexam Chemical Holding (NEXAM.SS), Desenio Group (DSNO.SS), Coor Service Management Holding (COOR.SS), Bravida Holding (BRAV.SS), HMS Networks (HMS.SS), Lifeco (LIFCO.B.SS), Scandic Hotels Group (SHOT.SS), SignUp Software (SIGNUP.SS), Netel Holding (NETEL.SS), Gränges (GRNG.SS), Inwido (INWI.SS), AddLife (ALIF.B.SS), Duni (DUNI.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Lime Technologies (LIME.SS), Momentum Group (MMGR.B.SS), Nilörngruppen (NIL.B.SS), Mycronic (MYCR.SS), Vitrolife (VITR.SS), Nederman Holding (NMAN.SS), AQ Group (AQ.SS), Corem Property Group (CORE.B.SS), Peab (PEAB.SS), Castellum (CAST.SS), Proact IT Group (PACT.SS), Wallenstam (WALL.B.SS), Doro (DORO.SS), Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB.B.SS), Vitec Software Group (VIT.B.SS), Serneke Group (SRNKE.B.SS), Cloetta (CLA.B.SS), Dedicare (DEDI.SS), Byggmax Group (BMAX.SS), KlaraBo (KLARA.B.SS), Nelly Group (NELLY.SS), Episurf Medical (EPIS.B.SS), Fortnox (FNOX.SS), PowerCell Sweden (PCELL.SS), FormPipe Software (FPIP.B.SS), Addnode Group (ANOD.B.SS), Rejlers (REJL.B.SS), CDON (CDON.SS), Balco Group (BALCO.SS), Elos Medtech (ELOS.B.SS), Bergman & Beving (BERG.B.SS), Addtech (ADDT.B.SS)
UK: musicMagpie (MMAG.LN), Zoo Digital (ZOO.LN)
Trading Update: Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), McBride (MCB.LN), Liontrust Asset Management (LIO.LN), Ninety One (N91.GR)
Data:
Economics:
UK May
Visible Trade Balance (£18.72B) vs consensus (£14.7B) and prior revised (£14.64B) from (£15.00B)
Trade Balance (£6.58B) vs consensus (£2.2B) and prior revised (£2.46B) from (£1.52B)
Construction Output +0.2% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised +2.7% from +3.6%
Industrial Production (2.3%) y/y vs consensus (2.3%) and prior revised (1.6%) from (1.9%)
Manufacturing Production (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.7%) and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.9%)
UK Jun House Price Balance (46%) vs consensus (34%) and prior (30%) - RICS
France Jun CPI +4.5% y/y vs preliminary +4.5%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%
Eurozone May Industrial Production (2.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior +0.2%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +1.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$0.40 or +0.53% to $76.15
€-$ +0.0061 or +0.55% to 1.1195
£-$ +0.0118 or +0.91% to 1.3101
€-£ (0.0025) to 0.8546
S&P 500 +0.52%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.15%)
DAX: +15.93%
CAC: +13.84%
MIB: +21.38%
Stoxx 600: +8.58%
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